06/27/2020 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 1 week, the next week has 61% chances to close up.

[Cobra]

Maybe it's the time for the final battle I mentioned 2 weeks ago, mentioned a little too early but may finally happen now:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4061

[jademann]

Wonder if this scenario will now play out in the battle of fear and greed?

[jademann]

This is the chart which is most concerning for bulls. Sell volume is higher.
Notice the emas have crossed the center of the BB and are diverging. Last time was around Feb 24th.
We should get a bounce heading into Thursday, Friday is holiday.
http://schrts.co/dFfBHsFM

[BullBear52x]

From It is what it is department", Fearful market, weak momentum, nothing good to say but The Fed!, as an individual trader it is time to put a big man's pants and a helmet on. Key focus Price action. Currently on a daily time frame setup, we are in a bullish consolidation phase, during a consolidation phase, it is the toughest time to trade or position for a trade, bulls/Bears will have to face the same uncertainty especially at the $VIX level that we have now.
Short term momentum is bearish overall.

Price action, A consolidation range Hi/Lo are clear here. the Elliott wave guys will sure look for wave 3 down if we have LL, but look back at month of May's price action, a LL trade but only to rebound quickly and take out the new HH. for that reason I am going into next week with an open mind that things can change on a dime. for now it is pointing south, for this time frame I will need to see a solid reversal candle at the least, a new HH on a daily will be a plus, since we are not there yet I will have to eye on the range low as target, if you are already have a bearish position I would just kick back and see the reaction at the range low.

Short term swing setup, the trend is down, rip will be sold, as long as we are trading under 5 DMA, sell is the command of the day. trade well. Peace!

[Heck]

PMO DOWN ST DOWN LT

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/dpgallery.html

[Al_Dente]

Almanac:   “Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 27 of the past 35 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. This year the rally may have begun a day early, and could last until on or around July 14.”

SCHWAB: Avoid buying dips for now

Al Brooks: His usual 50/50 analysis, with a minimum for bulls to test the February 24 gap, and bears expecting “somewhere between 2600 and 2800” ... “Traders have concluded that there is a floor under the market … Institutions are buying an overbought market with mediocre earnings during a pandemic when consumer spending is greatly reduced because they believe that the one fundamental
fact is more important... THAT FACT IS THE FED.

COT as of June 23: E-mini S&P 500: “Currently net short 97.1k, down 206.2k.” [net shorts down means they covered]

Wishing Wealth: I avoided the 2000 and 2008 market debacles by getting out when the major indexes closed below their declining 30 week sma [like now, DIA]. Such a pattern could indicate the beginning of a Weinstein Stage IV decline. 
Here is his Weinstein explainer with the 30sma weekly:
http://thepatternsite.com/Stages.html

SentimenTrader: “Growth & tech seems at risk of a big shakeout here - remain on high alert.”

[Al_Dente]

These are the TBTFs, who own the FED …
Daily, since the 2/19 high

[JFR]

ES 5. Moving above the EMA 20 and moving above the 3000 level.

[Heck]

CHK BQ

SP.1 Sep Futures

New Month Low

Bearya

[JFR]

ES 5. Over, under, over on the 3000 level and the EMA 20.