09/25/2020 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Double bottom or not, wait and see. I say 51% chances.

[Cobra]

The members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/09 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

ES daily. Holding steady, so far. Well beneath the EMA 20 and resistance lines.

[JFR]

Dow 30. More red than green on the Dow. Led by BA. DOW and TRV trailing.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:03 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/09 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

GOLD MINERS, daily, as of yesterday’s close
Zero percent of miners are above their 20ma. ZERO.

[Cobra]

https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6302 ... ly-precede

[JFR]

ES 5. The market is chopping around, not going anywhere, so far. Stuck beneath the pivot.

Have a good weekend, Everyone.

[Al_Dente]

"Our broad based banking customers have more money in their bank accounts today than they had pre-covid crisis," says BAC CEO Brian Moynihan. "For September so far this year the spending by BAC customers both on debit and credit cards is up--spending overall is up." [Yesterday, CNBC]

[Ratbastrd]

Could be a volatile day, a drop below $3200 opens up a quick trip the $3160 level. I'm expecting a washout after EU closes.

[Mr. BachNut]

The NYMO cycle remains down.
The last cycle high was way back on August 10.
Last week we had a corrective move up to the zero line after hitting the turn zone.
The bulls failed to follow through, and we fell back to the turn zone on Wednesday.
NYMO has lifted a bit this morning, but still looks weak.
It would need another downdraft to hit the oversold zone.

Pricewise, we broke below the middle keltner last Friday, came back to test it mid-week and failed.
We shall see if that was a kiss goodbye.
We are trading around the 2019 close at the moment. So, a lot of movement to go nowhere for the year so far...
There is an open gap below at SPX 3197.52 that looks ripe for closure.
There is also one on the December ES contract at 3173, which should close at some point.
After that the next open gap happens to lie with the lower keltner and the 200 MA.
If it gets there, I would guess it would be a buy.

All that said, price looks a bit wedgie here.
If bulls could break the wedge (quarter-end on deck), perhaps the upside gap at SPX 3385.49 could come into play.
We shall see. In the mean time, the action seems like a bouncy ball down some stairs...

I am short SPX and R2K.
I have taken three scales on the SPX. I usually put a BE stop on the runner at this point, but I am trying a parabolic stop here.
Trends have been choppy this year, and I have been taken out more than once by volatility rather than a turn. It may turn out bad, but I would like to give the position a shot to survive the next bounce.
I had an R2K long last week that closed for a loss and reversed. This short could be a loser too (not bad with one scale in the bank) as the R2K has been relatively firm.
What will be will be...

[Cobra]

Maybe it's a valid double bottom breakout here, the low was in for today. I'll treat it as a range day for now although it still has chances being an uptrend day.

[Ratbastrd]

TRIN is really elevated. This rally isn't what it appears to be.

[Al_Dente]

On the daily, SPX is below 50sma (red ma), QQQ is below 50sma, the 10-fangs are above 50sma. That’s a bullish divergence for now

[Al_Dente]

WEEK AT A GLANCE, early
It’s all about NDX, Tech, as usual

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:20 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/09 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

OPTIONS TRADERS
Same theme here, VIX v VXN
There is more pronounced call buying in tech 1/VXN (gray dashed line, higher highs)

[Cobra]

Breakout is more likely

[Al_Dente]

Some key sectors %, YEAR-TO-DATE:
Big Banks colored red. If that down persists, “it would be the banks’ worst full-year underperformance in at least 84 years.” [WSJ]

[Ratbastrd]

Just added index shorts and a bunch of UVXY. If I'm right we head south into close, potentially rather violently. Stops above SPX 3280