01/23/2021 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 1 week, 78% chances higher high ahead the next week so bulls should be fine holding positions over the weekend.

[Cobra]

Al Brooks is looking at the same price channel now. Both upper and lower boundary was 3 points validated so definitely it's a channel. The life cycle of a trend usually is spike -> channel -> range -> reverse. We're in the channel phase which is a relatively weaker phase in the whole trend life cycle.

"The current rally should end next week or early February", from my experiences, a counter trend forecast isn't easy, needs give it a lots of rooms for error, so, probably early February is more likely.

[Cobra]

$AAII bull - $AAII bear shows retailers are prudent.

[Cobra]

Bullish percent index shows maybe material and energy sectors are a little too hot. Hmm, energy sector? Really? Why material sector is so hot? Inflation?

[tim-follows]

Bullish percent index shows maybe material and energy sectors are a little too hot. Hmm, energy sector? Really? Why material sector is so hot? Inflation?

regarding material sector, according to Bespoke recent "Pro vs Con" newsletter, housing starts not peaking, which always occurs prior to recession, and more importantly,
Single family home inventory at record lows and consumers have record cash!

My view, seems broad market may be sideways a while to work off some excess exhuberance, not quite enough speculative froth yet for parabolic extreme that leads to plunge.
? possible 6,5% annual correction in summer if a dramatic rise in inflation expectations?

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" Counter trending is dangerous, TA is still a good measure to position entry/exit. both buying dips or selling rips required stops. since November, I got 5 sell signals, all are good for 50-100 points intraday range to be had. last sell signal (countertrend sell signal, stop at all time high) was triggered on Thursday. the 5th time. if we are looking back on the buy and hold positions that got stop out, they are also having a hard time get back in and hold since November without a bigger stop limit. we are in trading environment, day traders' heaven. positioning in this market today required far more greater stop limit and a drawn down could be really big. most short term traders agreed market is due for relief rally pull back, we got many unrealistic bullishness signs which I see as complacent level. look back in 1970 to 80's inflation. market high mainly go sideways with deep correction throughout that time. From my limited TA know how, We are due for A Relief Rally Pullback. for that in a week to come I will be nimble until I got 30+ handles under my belt then I will hold bearish position overnight. Look at monthly chart, one red bar is coming soon and that's all it takes to make me happy.

This charts shows where my sell signal triggered. the 5th time so far.

All time high with negative NYMO is new.

Short term trend is up, dip will be bought. This is the time when I have a high respect on a TA buy signal but I choose not to buy. I am preparing my mind for a correction be nimble, Peace!

[Cobra]

Bullish percent index shows maybe material and energy sectors are a little too hot. Hmm, energy sector? Really? Why material sector is so hot? Inflation?

regarding material sector, according to Bespoke recent "Pro vs Con" newsletter, housing starts not peaking, which always occurs prior to recession, and more importantly,
Single family home inventory at record lows and consumers have record cash!

My view, seems broad market may be sideways a while to work off some excess exhuberance, not quite enough speculative froth yet for parabolic extreme that leads to plunge.
? possible 6,5% annual correction in summer if a dramatic rise in inflation expectations?

You mean material sector is related to the housing? Lumber etc?

[Al_Dente]

"Investor behavior is like we see near the end, but markets are showing the signs we typically see during the beginning stages of a long-term recovery with thrusts in breadth and the percentage of securities hitting 52-week highs. It's very strange."
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/wor ... rrections/

[Al_Dente]

SPY needs a strong new high to get out of this wedge,
else wedge wedge wedge.
This is “candlevolume” style, daily, but the same can be seen on regular candlestick charts

[Cobra]

"Investor behavior is like we see near the end, but markets are showing the signs we typically see during the beginning stages of a long-term recovery with thrusts in breadth and the percentage of securities hitting 52-week highs. It's very strange."
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/wor ... rrections/

Well, hopefully he's right so that we can all be rich!

[Al_Dente]

[Al_Dente]

"Investor behavior is like we see near the end, but markets are showing the signs we typically see during the beginning stages of a long-term recovery with thrusts in breadth and the percentage of securities hitting 52-week highs. It's very strange."
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/wor ... rrections/

Well, hopefully he's right so that we can all be rich!

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[Al_Dente]

... This charts shows where my sell signal triggered. the 5th time so far....

BOSS I REALLY like that chart.
Would you consider sending me an open link via PM so i can follow it better ???

[QED]

.
Markowski: S&P At 3rd Perilous High Since 1871

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/markow ... ince-1871/

.

[BullBear52x]

... This charts shows where my sell signal triggered. the 5th time so far....

BOSS I REALLY like that chart.
Would you consider sending me an open link via PM so i can follow it better ???

Stockcharts.com will not show what I have, I just mark where the sell and buy arrow from market/Volume profile. reversal between poor high and poor lows.

It's an art not a science. when short term market is at over bought/sold, I look for poor high/low to play a reversal. sorry it's on the other computer. if someone can post 5min market profile (Monkey bars on TOS) or any Volume profile chart I can point out the poor high or poor low I am looking at.

[Shaishen]

... This charts shows where my sell signal triggered. the 5th time so

It's an art not a science. when short term market is at over bought/sold, I look for poor high/low to play a reversal. sorry it's on the other computer. if someone can post 5min market profile (Monkey bars on TOS) or any Volume profile chart I can point out the poor high or poor low I am looking at.

5 min ES Friday and start Tokyo today Sunday (red candles)

Orange candles on left = IB RTH

[BullBear52x]

... This charts shows where my sell signal triggered. the 5th time so

It's an art not a science. when short term market is at over bought/sold, I look for poor high/low to play a reversal. sorry it's on the other computer. if someone can post 5min market profile (Monkey bars on TOS) or any Volume profile chart I can point out the poor high or poor low I am looking at.

5 min ES Friday and start Tokyo today Sunday (red candles)

Orange candles on left = IB RTH

can you show 5 days, 5min. SPX futures, 1 point bars.

[Shaishen]

Sorry had to take the dog out.

SPX monkey Bar 5 min

[Shaishen]

Another view

[BullBear52x]

Sorry had to take the dog out.

SPX monkey Bar 5 min

can you turn on the volume: On chart setting > Appearance> Volume for "All"
That way we can see both market and volume profile, easier to identify poor High/Lo each day.