02/13/2021 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 76% chances to make a higher high so bulls should be fine holding positions over the weekend.

[Cobra]

$AAII Bull - $AAII Bear shows retailers are becoming bullish.

[Cobra]

The chart below was from Bloomberg. I read it as bearish, people are mad for quick money now.

The chart below was from Sentimentrader. The market is crazy.

[Cobra]

Al Brooks basically expect a false breakout next week (75%), since the failed breakout usually last 5 bars so the pullback starts probably the next next week.

[Cobra]

My view still is: $NYMO needs go near or below zero before a top can be possible. Actually, it should dip below zero then rebound to near zero as illustrated by dashed red arrows.

[QED]

Cobra, do you have any thoughts on Bitcoin? Thanks!

[Cobra]

Cobra, do you have any thoughts on Bitcoin? Thanks!

Sounds like a gamble? So I didn't pay attention to it.

[Al_Dente]

TO VIX PEOPLE FROM Morgan Stanley, 2/13
[Spoiler alert: “the risks of future volatility squeezes remain elevated" [vol up, spy down]:

 “VIX exchange traded products (ETPs) have seen record inflows over the last 6 days, with 71k futures bought as a result of long VIX ETP inflows, the 3rd most extreme episode on record. ..there has also been a remarkable increase in call activity in these long volatility products with call open interest rising sharply.  The majority of flows in these products are typically driven by retail…”  
[The ETPs they refer to are VXX (short spy vehicle), UVXY (short spy vehicle), and SVXY (long spy vehicle). I am not recommending trading these; they are just on my VIX watch list]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morga ... to+zero%29

TRIVIA: Since the creation of the VIX in 1993, 100% of the gaps have filled
… so that last gap in VIX (feb 1- feb 2) at circa 28-29 is the target/fill.

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY VALENTINES DAY !!!
Roses are red
Violets are blue
The term structure is steep
And so is the skew
[Rafael Velasquez, CFA]

[Al_Dente]

"We calculate a cumulative buy/sell pressure line that only tracks the last hour of trading, created by Dean Christians.
It just hit its lowest level since 2016, reflecting a consistent bias toward late-day selling pressure."

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/spe ... s-selling/

[Al_Dente]

ALMANAC
Trading After Presidents’ Day Weekend Continues to be Weak
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6429 ... ntinues-to

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" Bubblicious market. $SPX P/E is 40 as of today. 2001 Tech bubble pops at 44, 2008 Housing bubble pops at 66. I am and many who trade during these times will agree that Covid-19 bubble will pop soon. but how much longer will we see it coming? the old saying you don't know it's bubble until it ops.

Lets look at Volatility that lead to any one of these or a start of any short term correction, $VIX, $CPC, $VVIX etc., $VIX is still dropping but $VIX reading >16 is not the norm of calming market, and from the look of $CPC and $VVIX to see what's coming. common wisdom $CPC >.8 is a warning sign of correction is in the making, more hedging activities is at hand. Also $VVIX the $VIX of $VIX is also creeping up now too, as of late a reading of <120 on $VVIX is not the time to buy. Both $CPC and $VVIX are pointing up indicate sideways to down market short term is to be expected.$SKEW is high and heading down. all of this are a warning signs of what to come.

Zooming up, $CPC and $VVIX are on the rise in last few days.

Short term is bullish, 2x top breakout, bulls need to continue buying or a failed breakout will be a play if trade lower and you know the routine, fast sell off to retest the range low is to be expected. important pivot for day trade. Good luck and trade well, Peace!

[JFR]

ES 5. Up since Friday. No quit in this market. The crash, when it comes, should be exciting. And it will be devastating for the naive, just like the RobinHood kid who killed himself. These are the craziest times I've known. What is in short supply is wisdom and common sense. People are so strung out and lost, they go for desperate measures, and not just in the stock market.

[JFR]

Cobra, do you have any thoughts on Bitcoin? Thanks!

It is a good issue for discussion. My opinion. Personally, I will not be bothered with bitcoin.

Store of value. Unknown.

Speculation. Yup. Both up and down.

With currency, stocks, gold and land, one can get close to putting a reasonable, underlying value on them. I have not investigated bitcoin, but I think it is like Gertrude Stein said about Oakland: "There is no there, there." It is worth what people will pay for it. Is is susceptible to hacking? Probably. One poor guy lost his password, and is locked out of a very large account. Ouch. So you can buy a drink or a meal or other stuff with bitcoin. IMO cash, credit and debit are just fine for that.

Bitcoin. Founded by some mysterious guy, pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. LOL Some aspects of it are just a head shaker.

Where is it stored?

Your data is in their computers, usually stored in a regional data center close to where you live. Individual companies can also have their own clouds, called private clouds, that employees and customers access, usually over the internet and on their own private networks.Jan. 23, 2017

Could that be lost?

Cloud data is stored in multiple locations, making it exceptionally difficult to lose. If you ever experience difficulty retrieving your data from the cloud, it can always be retrieved from another data center. Since data center storage is decentralized in nature, it's actually much safer than on-site storage.Jul. 14, 2020

Is that reassuring? Not to me.

I think I would rather bury gold coins in the back yard (for store of value), and then go to the casino, for excitement and speculation.

Store of value. Buy land.

Speculation. The stock market (and futures and forex) is just fine for that. And it is a well-known game, like poker, that can be played with advantage.

Is a bank safe? Some get robbed. Whatever of value is out there, clever people plot to get hold of it, and sometimes succeed. Spread your money out, not all in one basket, or bank, or brokerage, or even country. Are there very clever people trying to figure out how to steal bitcoin deposits/investments? Of course.

For me, bitcoin is just a chart, and a dangerous one at that.

Just imo, as bitcoin is with us for the foreseeable future.

[Cobra]

Cobra, do you have any thoughts on Bitcoin? Thanks!

It is a good issue for discussion. My opinion. Personally, I will not be bothered with bitcoin.

Store of value. Unknown.

Speculation. Yup. Both up and down.

With currency, stocks, gold and land, one can get close to putting a reasonable, underlying value on them. I have not investigated bitcoin, but I think it is like Gertrude Stein said about Oakland: "There is no there, there." It is worth what people will pay for it. Is is susceptible to hacking? Probably. One poor guy lost his password, and is locked out of a very large account. Ouch. So you can buy a drink or a meal or other stuff with bitcoin. IMO cash, credit and debit are just fine for that.

Bitcoin. Founded by some mysterious guy, pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. LOL Some aspects of it are just a head shaker.

Where is it stored?

Your data is in their computers, usually stored in a regional data center close to where you live. Individual companies can also have their own clouds, called private clouds, that employees and customers access, usually over the internet and on their own private networks.Jan. 23, 2017

Could that be lost?

Cloud data is stored in multiple locations, making it exceptionally difficult to lose. If you ever experience difficulty retrieving your data from the cloud, it can always be retrieved from another data center. Since data center storage is decentralized in nature, it's actually much safer than on-site storage.Jul. 14, 2020

Is that reassuring? Not to me.

I think I would rather bury gold coins in the back yard (for store of value), and then go to the casino, for excitement and speculation.

Store of value. Buy land.

Speculation. The stock market (and futures and forex) is just fine for that. And it is a well-known game, like poker, that can be played with advantage.

Is a bank safe? Some get robbed. Whatever of value is out there, clever people plot to get hold of it, and sometimes succeed. Spread your money out, not all in one basket, or bank, or brokerage, or even country. Are there very clever people trying to figure out how to steal bitcoin deposits/investments? Of course.

For me, bitcoin is just a chart, and a dangerous one at that.

Just imo, as bitcoin is with us for the foreseeable future.

Agree, agree, agree. By the way, could you tell me your the address of your back yard please. Any security cameras there? Any dogs? Anyone there at night? Thanks.

[JFR]

Cobra, do you have any thoughts on Bitcoin? Thanks!

It is a good issue for discussion. My opinion. Personally, I will not be bothered with bitcoin.

Store of value. Unknown.

Speculation. Yup. Both up and down.

With currency, stocks, gold and land, one can get close to putting a reasonable, underlying value on them. I have not investigated bitcoin, but I think it is like Gertrude Stein said about Oakland: "There is no there, there." It is worth what people will pay for it. Is is susceptible to hacking? Probably. One poor guy lost his password, and is locked out of a very large account. Ouch. So you can buy a drink or a meal or other stuff with bitcoin. IMO cash, credit and debit are just fine for that.

Bitcoin. Founded by some mysterious guy, pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. LOL Some aspects of it are just a head shaker.

Where is it stored?

Your data is in their computers, usually stored in a regional data center close to where you live. Individual companies can also have their own clouds, called private clouds, that employees and customers access, usually over the internet and on their own private networks.Jan. 23, 2017

Could that be lost?

Cloud data is stored in multiple locations, making it exceptionally difficult to lose. If you ever experience difficulty retrieving your data from the cloud, it can always be retrieved from another data center. Since data center storage is decentralized in nature, it's actually much safer than on-site storage.Jul. 14, 2020

Is that reassuring? Not to me.

I think I would rather bury gold coins in the back yard (for store of value), and then go to the casino, for excitement and speculation.

Store of value. Buy land.

Speculation. The stock market (and futures and forex) is just fine for that. And it is a well-known game, like poker, that can be played with advantage.

Is a bank safe? Some get robbed. Whatever of value is out there, clever people plot to get hold of it, and sometimes succeed. Spread your money out, not all in one basket, or bank, or brokerage, or even country. Are there very clever people trying to figure out how to steal bitcoin deposits/investments? Of course.

For me, bitcoin is just a chart, and a dangerous one at that.

Just imo, as bitcoin is with us for the foreseeable future.

Agree, agree, agree. By the way, could you tell me your the address of your back yard please. Any security cameras there? Any dogs? Anyone there at night? Thanks.

Ha ha ha. Just some trees in the back yard, Cobra. One pear tree. One cherry tree. A plum tree. Gold coins? Not saying. Security cameras out front. Dogs? Not at this time. Any other information is classified. Thanks for the chuckle.

[QED]

.
Not trying to change anyone’s opinion, but cryptocurrencies just might be worth learning a little more about (as it is still very early in the game) ...

Understanding "why" may be something to start with:

https://rumble.com/embed/vb6v6x/?pub=2hzb1

.

[Cobra]

An interesting chart.

[BullBear52x]

Swing trade reaction point that maters. we are in an infliction point if we are wrong or just sit back and watch the breakout direction. For a trade, this is where both bulls and bears should play it right. 50% chance on both sides, this is where they separate the woman from the girls. what is your playbook?

[BullBear52x]

Holy grail of direction. We have seen negative D long enough, this is the week to refresh our memory. in a week to come put this on top of your chart list, I will, this will guide me if the doom is upon us, If $BPSPX turns down with short term MACD signal line stays under zero line. then bulls are in trouble. for bulls, this line need to be back above zero line, with new ATH the signal line should be above zero already. (Don't tell anyone, keep it secret.)