02/20/2021 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 1 week, the next week has 62% chances to close up.

[jademann]

I sense a change in the wind. Bulls had it their way so long they think they can never lose.

[Cobra]

I sense a change in the wind. Bulls had it their way so long they think they can never lose.

Not long enough, so maybe still some up rooms.

[Cobra]

$AAII Bull - $AAII -Bear shows retailers are becoming more bullish.

[cletus]

Tech is on the verge of a “dot com” style collapse, as early as this March.

Evidence:

IPOs are equally negative on earnings as during the dot com bubble years
Sentiment is sky high - people protesting that they can’t buy stocks on Robinhood
San Francisco real estate up 8 years in a row. Max was typically 6 or 7 before a recession brought things down
The dot com bubble burst in early March 2000
Junk bond yields are at a record low
The % move over the last year mimics that of the move one year prior to the dot com bubble
High volatility mimics that of previous bull markets that overstretched and collapsed

First half of this year will be an extreme seller’s market in real estate while the second half of the year will be an extreme buyer’s market.

[Al_Dente]

SECTOR ROTATION, relative strength, this week

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" Market is flirting at ATH, fundamental is in a waggle mode between stimulus to kick the can down the road or we are dead. Let's hope for stay alive. When you are in doubt, stay in cash as the old sdaying. We TA nuts will continue our tea leaves reading for the short term trade.

Momentum is weakening and bearish, the price action is still above the cliff. Long term buyers stops/hedge are in for sure.

Negative Divergence, we don't know how deep the turn will be but one thing for sure the run up is hitting a snag when bearish crossed. buyers beware!. lower channel should a be good guess target for now.

Short term trend is down, in an early stage, same playbook for trend following, as long as we are under 5 DMA, rips will be sold. keep it simple. Peace!

[Trades w 2 Cats]

What can move market up near term?
$1,400 onto each and every Robinhooder account.
President's sate of the union where he promises vast infrastructure spending.

[Al_Dente]

The latest fund manager survey by BofA Global Research showed cash allocations down to their lowest level since March 2013, allocations to stocks and commodities at their highest level in around a decade and a record in the net percentage of investors taking higher-than-normal risk.

[TumblingDice]

One thing I noticed about any large previous drawdown is that any pullback of actual size was always preceded by a divergence in a number of different market leaders:

GBP/JPY (typically the biggest tell)
Copper
HYG
TLT (negative)
SMH
XLF
Crude Oil
IWM

None of these market leaders are showing any sort of indication of weakness, at all. In fact, the outperformance of IWM to both SPY and QQQ is a huge indicator that this is usually the start of a new bull.

If it seems ridiculous and engineered, it is because it is. But the rube goldberg machine of finance doesn't care whether it is fake or not, they care about the numbers, the leading indicators, the M2 supply, the models. And all the models are pointing to continuation. VIX can continue to be milked dry until it gets down to 10. The fact that this is so obviously a bubble allows the bubble to continue, because it will always garner bets against it, with the retail calls in UVXY as a prime exhibit.

Biggest opportunities to me, right now are silver, XLE, SMH and meme stocks.

There is inevitably going to be a reckoning, but unless it comes in the form of a sudden black swan, it is not going to be here any time soon. Even the virus crash saw canaries in the coal mine going silent. Right now, they are chirping full blast.

[TumblingDice]

On a weekly basis, silver could be making its first bullish cross above 0 in 9 years, its RSI is maintaining above 50, and it is keeping above the 20 SMA.

Any break of 30 is going to send it to at least 50. A break of 50 brings in the animal spirits.

[Al_Dente]

There is a huge shortage of silver, according to “everybody”
Reportedly, over 50% of the short interest in silver is held by 8 major banks

THE REALLY BIG NEWS of the last week is the change in the prospectuses for SLV and SIVR
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan ... rge-banks/

Interview on commodities, especially silver. It’s 29 min long but worth every minute:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtxr_yXDXTo

[TumblingDice]

There is a huge shortage of silver, according to “everybody”
Reportedly, over 50% of the short interest in silver is held by 8 major banks

THE REALLY BIG NEWS of the last week is the change in the prospectuses for SLV and SIVR
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan ... rge-banks/

Interview on commodities, especially silver. It’s 29 min long but worth every minute:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtxr_yXDXTo

Cool video and good summary. I would feel nervous betting against the entire TBTF bank complex, even if the premise and logic of the bet is correct. But knowing that JPM, the OG bank that is pretty much at the center of the financial system, is on the long side, brings me great comfort. Jamie Dimon also recently said, I believe in January 2020, that bonds are the only bubble he sees, which pretty much confirms their position on this. The game used to be to suppress the metals to keep paper assets such as bonds and stocks propped up. This was publicly outlined in a paper by Larry Summers. Now the name of the game is to create inflation at any cost. A booming silver market will surely signal inflation to the world, which in turn will create even more inflation.

It's basically a game of musical chairs now between these 8 shorts and all it takes is one to start covering. Timing is tricky but I think July calls will print.

[Cobra]

I mentioned in order to make a top, $NYMO needs go far below zero then rise to close zero. so far it went as expected, now $NYMO probably is in the rising phase which means $SPY should still have some up rooms at least.

[tim-follows]

One thing I noticed about any large previous drawdown is that any pullback of actual size was always preceded by a divergence in a number of different market leaders:

None of these market leaders are showing any sort of indication of weakness, at all. In fact, the outperformance of IWM to both SPY and QQQ is a huge indicator that this is usually the start of a new bull.

If it seems ridiculous and engineered, it is because it is. But the rube goldberg machine of finance doesn't care whether it is fake or not, they care about the numbers, the leading indicators, the M2 supply, the models. And all the models are pointing to continuation. VIX can continue to be milked dry until it gets down to 10. The fact that this is so obviously a bubble allows the bubble to continue, because it will always garner bets against it, with the retail calls in UVXY as a prime exhibit.

Biggest opportunities to me, right now are silver, XLE, SMH and meme stocks.

There is inevitably going to be a reckoning, but unless it comes in the form of a sudden black swan, it is not going to be here any time soon. Even the virus crash saw canaries in the coal mine going silent. Right now, they are chirping full blast.

All valid points, bulls seem to show and buy all dips, and the long term bearish divergences in breadth, Nymo, McClellans have not been rewarding to bears....

NEXT Big Chirp might be China warning a 2nd time, That asset prices are getting too rich. Dont know if it gets a 3-5% correction
in major indexes, but might be a time to buy befor month end

[cletus]

Futures are beginning to dive. Cobra appears to be wrong footed. Nearly all analysts are calling for more upside. Market doesn’t like consensus.