05/10/2022 Live Update

[jademann]

Just bought some UPRO ... I know..
VIX is what made me do it. It looks like it is fading to me

[Al_Dente]

5/10 SENTIMENTRADER:
"Last Friday, the Burea of Economic Analysis released the April data for heavyweight truck sales.
It was not good.
"Heavyweight trucks move a large percentage of the dollar value of freight around the country. So, when a big-ticket expenditure that moves freight around the country contracts on a year-over-year basis, we should take note because it can foreshadow a slowdown in overall economic growth...... we'll have to pay close attention as data is released in the coming weeks.
"This indicator generated a signal 11 other times over the past 52 years. After the other times, SPX future returns were unfavorable.
"Returns were negative at some point in the first 6 months in 11 out of 11 instances.
"Defensive sectors and industries performed much better, while cyclical groups were underwhelming.

My YTD Consumer Demand performance chart shows trucking in brown

[koolblue]

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:05 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/05 ... ay-update/

[Mr. BachNut]

NYMO cycle remains down.
We had a dip into the Turn Zone in late April, bounced to the zero line May 4 and are now back in the Turn Zone.
Double dips like this are rare. Anecdotally, the rise out of the second dip turns into a full fledged NYMO up cycle.
Think NYMO double bottom.
So, bulls may have something to look forward to, but Mr. Market can do whatever it wants...

Pricewise we closed a very big gap yesterday. It was a weekly close from April Fools Day 2021.
We closed another gap from last year this morning. We now have six open gaps above.
There are only four open down gaps from last year remaining.

All moving averages we watch are sloping down.
Price has been keeping to a defined down channel.

From where we are now, one can entertain a trip to visit the zone around the 2020 High and 2021 Low, which seems a technically rich area.
Near and dear to me also is the stranded benchmark at the November 2020 NYMO high at SPX 3642.31 (pea green line).
In this NYMO model, all stranded Hi/Lo benchmarks have been satisfied eventually.
I do not think these levels are in the cards just yet. With NYMO in the Turn Zone now, any trip to these levels will not be a straight line.
However, it seems OK to have these on the radar screen, maybe after a tradeable rally... but I have no idea what will happen.

I am still flat.

[BullBear52x]

If there will be a down trend day, this is it.

[Ratbastrd]

Seeing lots of market crash posts on Fintwit etc. I'm a bit lost on this concept, yes there are risks, but we are starting to price in very low probability scenarios down here. Selectively deploying cash. Technical buy set for IWM 166, SPY 386 though I doubt we get there on this trip.

Watching TRIN & TICK, both suggesting tradeable bounce

[Ratbastrd]

[Cobra]

Now, breakdown is more likely.

[BullBear52x]

Seeing lots of market crash posts on Fintwit etc. I'm a bit lost on this concept, yes there are risks, but we are starting to price in very low probability scenarios down here. Selectively deploying cash. Technical buy set for IWM 166, SPY 386 though I doubt we get there on this trip.

Watching TRIN & TICK, both suggesting tradeable bounce

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Panic spikes in the past, we need one soon. not one yet.

[koolblue]

1ST target hit 3953.

[Ratbastrd]

Panic spikes in the past, we need one soon. not one yet.

Yes they are panic spikes, but suggest you need to add the high TRIN print to the equation. TRIN WAYYYY off today, TLT rallying, TICK positive on the day. We may go lower, but we are in the buy zone IMO. Also, VIX sending message, this sell off has been orderly. Fed not going to let markets fall off cliff, then their job is only more difficult. They will talk traders away from the edge, just wait.

[BullBear52x]

$CPC also shows no sign of fear were subsided until it trades back down under 1. yes, over sold but nothing to say oversold is over until then at the minimum. posted this chart the other day.

[BullBear52x]

TOP or BOTTOM is a process !!!

[Al_Dente]

LONGER TERM:
SPY: There was an old gap from 5 April 2021 that filled today
Broken box ... target cyan
Head & Shoulders broken neckline... target pink
(both targets are approximate)
To reach those longer term targets, bears will have to get more serious and start posting some volume like that seen in Feb/March 2020 (note red circles)

[BullBear52x]

To have a positive price action bulls need to close above yesterday's closed. a trade above 61.8 % will have a Bullish Reversal candle. for price pays dip buyers that will be something I would look for today.

[BullBear52x]

First thing first, Bears last sell setup. looks like a failed breakdown (Auction theory) last sell.

[jademann]

Sold 500 UPRO went flat. Nice lunch today

[Cobra]

Guess we had the range low, now seeking range high which is around the day high?

[BullBear52x]

Swing sell setup is now entering sell the rip zone. well under 5DMA, until all these failed, then I will say lets buy them up. look at last two times failed breakout. sooooo, it's a process on every move, patience is a virtue.