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Yes, I can see the bullish case. There are some stops being hit all the way up here. But at what point does the short/stop squeeze end? I'm not convinced that this rally is going anywhere beyond 1180. Full disclosure: trapped bear!Mr. BachNut wrote:Random observation: Since the August low, the risk on bullish pulses have generally run between 4 - 8 days. Doesn't mean it will repeat this time, but looking at trend line resistances, lack of overbought condition and (at the moment) good follow through on yesterday's action, this thing has some room to run. Shouldn't be straight up though.
That is some GOOD dirt, jarjarbo456 wrote:Between 5-10 year parts of the curve.Al_Dente wrote:what is "belly" of yield curve.... is it 10s ... 10 yr maturities?jarbo456 wrote:note from my buddy on the GS bond desk:
"The belly of the curve sold off 20 bps…..HUGE move….haven’t seenthat kind of a selloff since 08…..part of this is a glut of new supply coming to the market, but it’s also…..
Risk ON."
think we have another end of day run up...doesn't take much to get people to buy this market.
Prior to today, the long end had been rallying a scotch, basically flattening the curve (operation twist) but today the selloff was all across the curve from 2013 on out, but really concentrated in the 5-10 year space. Little bit of a reversal today. All in, the word is that brokerdealers sellingoff balances, and syndicates are selling down right now….long long end didn’t sell off quite as much bc there’s marginally more support and more yield hogs and the short end has been strong since forever I guess……
Just to put this in perspective, usually the curve moves 1-2 bps a day, 3-4 is a BIG move. 20….welll sheeeeeeshh………
Muni curve is really viewed traditionally as lagging treasuries historically, but the last 3 times we’ve had big moves, the muni curve was a “leading” indicator……..
All in all, nothing exciting. Long live munis.
Hope ? say confidence at least I am .. today's upleg is very week and will be retraced completely in the next five day at mostBullBear52x wrote:OK now we are approaching daily ma 13, so bears got little hope around here right?
Dear Chairman of the Board:Cobra wrote:well, guess that's it for today. another strong day but not MAD again. well, guess statistics doesn't matter at all, thank you ladies and guys, I'll see you tomorrow.
Agree. There ought to be a bunch of resistance at 1180 +/- 10 by the end of the week. Hard to see it getting past that without some kind of test of yesterday's low.ultramarine wrote:Yes, I can see the bullish case. There are some stops being hit all the way up here. But at what point does the short/stop squeeze end? I'm not convinced that this rally is going anywhere beyond 1180. Full disclosure: trapped bear!Mr. BachNut wrote:Random observation: Since the August low, the risk on bullish pulses have generally run between 4 - 8 days. Doesn't mean it will repeat this time, but looking at trend line resistances, lack of overbought condition and (at the moment) good follow through on yesterday's action, this thing has some room to run. Shouldn't be straight up though.