04/05/2023 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Descending triangle so bias is down.

[Al_Dente]

8:15 ADP Jobs Report [Private sector employment increased by 145,000 jobs in March... well below expectations... and annual pay was up 6.9 percent year-over-year]
9:45 PMI Composite Final
10:00 ISM Service Index

[JFR]

ES daily.

Backsliding. Down from the high of yesterday. Still well above the EMA 20 and the trendline. Slightly bullish on the day.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

After some up days, a big down day yesterday.

Range-like, wedge-like behavior today, thus far.

[JFR]

Source:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/05/investin ... index.html

2023-04-05_06-16-13.png (162.85 KiB) Viewed 3097 times

Some excerpts ...

New York CNN

US stocks have been incredibly resilient this year. In the midst of a banking crisis, historically high interest rates, geopolitical turmoil and heightened recession forecasts, the S&P 500 is up nearly 7% year-to-date. But investors should be wary, warn analysts, because the churn under the surface shows noticeable weakness.

The rally that the S&P 500 has enjoyed since the beginning of the year has been driven by a small group of stocks — the market cap of the remaining 480 or so has basically remained the same.

“This is not a broad-based rally where all stocks go up but instead a rally concentrated in a few of the largest stocks by market cap, mainly tech names,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, told CNN.

Leading the way in growth are tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA) and Meta (FB).

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and stabilizing inflation rates have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve’s painful interest rate hikes could soon come to an end.

That’s been a boon to large cap tech stocks that are more sensitive to interest rates because they tend to borrow more than established companies and rely more on the prospect of future earnings.

But it also means that the current market rally is thin, as the major indexes outperform the average stock.

Nvidia (NVDA), Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA), Visa (V), Exxon Mobil (XOM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Mastercard (MA), Eli Lilly & Co (LLY), Chevron (CVX) and Home Depot (HD) rounded out the list of stocks driving the vast majority of growth in the S&P 500.

“The implication for investors is that this market is not driven by broad-based higher growth expectations but instead by what has happened with rates, in particular after [Silicon Valley Bank] went under,” said Slok.

Not my opinions. Not my data.

[JFR]

https://www.cnn.com/markets

World markets.

Waiting for the bell ...

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Nasty, choppy action. Taking a break ...

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/04 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

It's a morning hourly hollow red.

[Al_Dente]

3/30 Barron's gives us a new list of troubled regionals.
"Like all the banks we list here, PacWest exceeded the level of one or both of these “300/100” tests.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/region ... eid=yhoof2

[Al_Dente]

QQQ breaks the box
cyan target

[Cobra]

I see an early sign of a downtrend day.

[te_fern]

Interesting spot on the 15 min, we'll see if it matters!

[merryme]

RETESTing breakout now. No failure allowed. Longer term view. Note volume.

[te_fern]

Agree with merryme, it's an important area today...

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:05 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/04 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Possible head and shoulders bottom (green arrows).

[te_fern]

Little bit of a bear trap (with break of green line), but now seems to be turning up in the short run. No plays yet...

[te_fern]

Pretty good down candle, will the market bail out the bears from earlier break??

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:33 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/04 ... ay-update/