05/04/2023 Live Update

[Cobra]

May test the EMA20 which is the bear's last chance to make another leg down.

[Al_Dente]

15min
$ONE:$VIX1D
Dots spike up when the 0DTE same-day VIX people initiate calls/close out puts (?)
Dots down is them initiating puts/closing out calls (?)
In other words, today 5/4, the 1/VIX traders are still bear-SPX (lime),
while the 1/$VIX1D same-day traders are covering their puts/initiating calls (dots)
Could a smarter person please post a better understanding of how this wacky
$VIX1D can be used as a smarter indicator ?

[brokebybernacke2]

the lifeboat...

[Al_Dente]

REMINDER: TODAY After The Close: AAPL earnings.
AAPL last quarter missed EPS estimates for the first time since 2016.
The consensus EPS forecast for this quarter is $1.44, will it happen again?
[AAPL wedges on the daily... like brokebybernacke2 just showed, thanks boss ]

[Al_Dente]

The AAPL VIX is guiding lower, but they're just guessing/frontrunning
DAILY

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:03 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/05 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

Late to the party ...

ES daily.

Day 25 in the trading range.

Testing the bottom of the range.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Pasta Boss, great find there on that new 1 day VIX. Divergence is always an important tool!

I could be wrong but I thought the 0DE options have the same rules for market makers. But they are really cheep. So a relatively small amount of money can move the options, then market makers are forced to have a 10% hedge in the underlying. The ever changing game called market manipulation!

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

Down. Down. Down.

Through S1. Down to 4063.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Finding support. Getting a bounce up to S1, where it finds some resistance.

[Al_Dente]

Pasta Boss, great find there on that new 1 day VIX. Divergence is always an important tool!
I could be wrong but I thought the 0DE options have the same rules for market makers. But they are really cheep. So a relatively small amount of money can move the options, then market makers are forced to have a 10% hedge in the underlying. The ever changing game called market manipulation!

[Al_Dente]

The bulk of the "real analysts" (NYAD, NAAD) believe that a bounce may be forthcoming.
They're usually right but things could change by the close...

[JFR]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/04/investin ... index.html

New York

CNN

First Horizon and TD Bank have called off a $13 billion deal that would have formed America’s sixth-largest bank, adding to the turmoil sweeping the country’s regional lenders.

Caught up in the worst banking crisis since 2008, First Horizon (FHN)’s share price has plunged about 40% over the past couple months, falling well below the $25 per share that TD offered when the takeover was announced in February 2022.

The stock closed at $15.05 a share Wednesday and plunged another 36% Thursday after the deal was mutually abandoned by the banks.

First Horizon is a regional lender in the southeast United States and would have helped Canada’s TD expand south of the border. But regional banks have been losing the confidence of investors and customers since the March collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

On Monday, a third regional bank, First Republic, failed and JPMorgan purchased most of its assets. A fourth, PacWest Bank confirmed earlier Thursday that it’s looking for a financial lifeline.

First Horizon said it remains stable, cash-rich and diversified.

“While today’s announcement is unfortunate and unexpected, First Horizon will continue on its growth path operating from a position of strength and stability,” said First Horizon CEO Bryan Jordan, in a statement.

TD said in a statement that the companies called off the merger because of an unexpectedly long regulatory approval process. Without a timetable for approval, the companies began to question whether the deal would get regulators’ blessing at all. TD said the regulatory issue was for “reasons unrelated to First Horizon.”

In an interview with CNBC, Jordan concurred that he doesn’t believe the deal was called off because TD Bank wanted to avoid buying First Horizon as regional bank stocks plunge.

[Cobra]

No sharp pullback here then it's a double bottom, the low was in for today.

[JFR]

GRBK. Real Estate.

A number of housing/real estate companies have their stock price rising.

GRBK is on one of my watch lists at StockCharts.

Incorporated in 2006. HQ in Plano, Texas.

Very nice move since January.

Not recommending. Just sharing information.

Green Brick Partners, Inc. operates as a homebuilding and land development company in the United States. It operates through Builder operations Central, Builder operations Southeast, and Land development segments. The company is involved in the land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, title and mortgage services, marketing, and sale of townhomes, patio homes, single family homes, and luxury homes in residential neighborhoods, and master planned communities. It owns or controls home sites in Dallas-Forth Worth, Austin, Atlanta metropolitan areas, and the Treasure Coast, Florida market. The company sells its homes through sales representatives and independent realtors. Green Brick Partners, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas. -- Yahoo Finance

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Breakout up.

Gonna load up TOS, where I have had an idle account for a few years. I opened it for their charts. Want to take another look at the ODTE options, and see if I can make it work for me, as a market direction guide. I expect other brokers will have the same ODTE offering in time. I have not checked.

[JFR]

Re TOS ODTE options.

I've talked to a couple of guys at TOS.

Neither one knew anything about ODTE options.

They just talked about options that expire today, which have been open for longer than one day.

I will keep digging. And as noted I expect other brokers will be offering ODTE options soon enough.

The illustration I have posted is for SPX options at TOS. The guys at TOS only know to say to look at expiries for May 4. I suspect there is a separate access point for ODTE options. Don't know yet. New ball game.

Checking out this video ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-7J5vqTFN4

[Al_Dente]

Re TOS ODTE options.
I've talked to a couple of guys at TOS.
Neither one knew anything about ODTE options.
They just talked about options that expire today, which have been open for longer than one day.
I will keep digging. And as noted I expect other brokers will be offering ODTE options soon enough.
The illustration I have posted is for SPX options at TOS. The guys at TOS only know to say to look at expiries for May 4. I suspect there is a separate access point for ODTE options. Don't know yet. New ball game.

Boss: I don't think there is a special class of 0DTE. They are just any and all options that expire TODAY.

[JFR]

Re TOS ODTE options.
I've talked to a couple of guys at TOS.
Neither one knew anything about ODTE options.
They just talked about options that expire today, which have been open for longer than one day.
I will keep digging. And as noted I expect other brokers will be offering ODTE options soon enough.
The illustration I have posted is for SPX options at TOS. The guys at TOS only know to say to look at expiries for May 4. I suspect there is a separate access point for ODTE options. Don't know yet. New ball game.

Boss: I don't think there is a special class of 0DTE. They are just any and all options that expire TODAY.

I hear you, Pasta Boss. Thanks.

Checking out a couple of videos. As noted 0DTE is a new ball game for me. The only options trades I usually make are selling (writing) puts, to collect the premiums, for stocks I would not mind owning anyway.

[Cobra]

The pullback probably will be bought. The market still pretty much in buying mode.