09/23/2023 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 4 days in a row, the next day has 61% chances to close up.

Down 3 weeks in a row, the next week has 56% chances to close up.

[tsf]

Thanks, Cobra.
For RSI(2) fans, RSI(2) for SPY was 1.45 on Friday Sep 22 EOD
So, maybe near-term bounce? in line with Cobra's 61% chance up ?

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" My Key focus will be "Time frame of a trade" and "key range" of short term level.
what we have here is a breakdown of a Head and Shoulder in chart pattern with that said bulls lost the battle to hold onto the upper range, any time we have a failed move up, next best guess is a retest on the bottom of the range support. thing "could or should" but I am looking at what it is. we are breaking down on Friday, October low will be the range low to look to at this point. bulls best indicator will be a MACD bullish cross to save the day. that remain to be seen.

On my daily trend following setup: selling since last trigger point were a success. lets have a review on money management, same old playbook on any time frame, new LL allows us to take half of the profit and let the other half runs with a stop at a break even entry and wait for new entry to add on. whichever came first. keep it simple. rips will be sold on this time frame.

On swing setup: rips will be sold, I circled where the bull/bear trap during last sideways consolidation phase. trend following setup will seem to fail during none trend but the make and break is key to understand of what to do next. keep it simple here also.

Intraday: Friday closed the day with a negative price action, I am expecting the weakness to follow into Monday. same play book on the Fibbo to help in day trading range, the shorter time frame of a trade will create more fault signals, the more volatile the market the harder to day trade, see $VIX, Day traders' heaven is here. get out if it's too hot in the kitchen. stay focus, only price pays, and have a wonderful trade. Peace!

[jademann]

Might pick up some UPRO when VIX prints 18.8 on monday. also might not..

[tsf]

Transcript:
Elizabeth Burton, Goldman Sachs Asset Management
September 19, 2023 8:30am by Barry Ritholtz

https://ritholtz.com/2023/09/transcript ... th-burton/

Barry Ritholtz: This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest. Elizabeth Burton is Goldman Sachs asset management’s client investment strategist. Previously she was Chief Investment Officer at various state pension funds, including Maryland and Hawaii. I, I found this to be really an intriguing conversation with somebody who, whose investment charge is unconstrained. She can go anywhere, do anything. She provides advice to institutions in high net worth investors that isn’t limited by the typical buckets or lines or structure that you, you so often see. Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything.

00:47:05
... Goldman would probably say they were aggressively neutral on, on bonds
00:47:47
... Aggressively neutral, right? The next three to three to 12 months because there is still some duration risk.
00:48:25
... Goldman says there’s a 20% chance of recession in the coming 2024 and we may see rate cuts in the back half of 2024.
How do you respond to, I have to think clients are asking about duration at this point. What’s your response to people who shortened duration a few years ago and, and we’re very successful because of it?
00:49:51
... Right? So I do get asked quite a bit, when can we start adding duration back to the portfolio? It’s probably the third biggest question that I, I have been getting in 2023. A lot of clients weren’t able to shorten their duration. Some were, some can take advantage of, of two years, right? And you could get a pretty good return there, but some couldn’t. It’s not in their investment policy or they didn’t want the reinvestment risk, right? So some are still holding onto those long bonds portfolio. But what I would say is I would, I would look to see where you could add duration, but I would be cautious. There’s still risk to the upside on rates. And the other part of that, I would say that let’s say inflation is coming down and it’s moderating, it’s, it’s coming down from a very high level, but it’s not coming down to zero.
00:50:30
...Right? So we could see a 3% level for a while.
00:52:38
... Alright. So you said the duration question is the third most asked question you get from institutional investors? Yes. I’m curious, what, what are questions one and two?
00:52:51
... So number one would be give me ideas on how to raise liquidity in my portfolio. And,
00:52:56
... And this is mostly from institutional investors.
00:53:00
... So when someone says, I want more liquidity, I, is this because they’re kind of tied up with long dated bonds, or is it more because they’re, they’re tied up with illiquid investments looking for the illiquidity premium.
00:53:13
... Typically it’s because they’re tied up in illiquid investments and they don’t wanna miss out on a vintage cycle.

[Cobra]

Thanks, Cobra.
For RSI(2) fans, RSI(2) for SPY was 1.45 on Friday Sep 22 EOD
So, maybe near-term bounce? in line with Cobra's 61% chance up ?

RSI(2) < 2, no guarantee rebound, better if RSI(2) < 1 for 2 days in a row.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

I see nothing but bears on this chart.

'Nuff said.