09/30/2023 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 4 weeks in a row, the next week has 67% chances to close up.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

A bottom, for the time being. A doji hammer on Wednesday. A bullish candle on Thursday. A bearish candle on Friday.

Price is beneath the EMAs 20, 50 and 100.

Slo Sto has turned up.

MACD down.

Mostly bearish developments at this time, trying to establish a bottom.

[tsf]

Thank you, Cobra and JFR.

For the bulls:

•Government shutdown threat eases after House passes a temporary funding plan, sending it to Senate
McConnell announces Senate Republicans will defer to House spending bill
https://news.yahoo.com/mcconnell-announ ... 19979.html

•Historically, the fourth quarter has been the best quarter for the U.S. stock market, with the large-cap S&P 500 index SPX up nearly 80% dating back to 1950 and gaining more than 4% on average, twice as much as the next best quarter, said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-s ... t-30d6f279

•October Almanac: Bear-Killer, Bargain Month, Turnaround Month
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/7296 ... gain-month
JEFFHIRSCH Sep 27, 2023

GLTA. Happy trading.

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" This is it? we bottoming here? that's the questions. Friday we have a gap and no go, indicating that a bounce is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. Bulls need to move back and regain price level above Friday's high quick, or it will only get bad from here.

Daily trend following: No change, rips will be sold.

Swing setup: last buy failed, rips will be sold. short term trend is in a bearish consolidation phase.

Intraday: Friday closed with a negative price action, It is bullish that we have a swing high. there's conflicting signals on Monday, same play book, I will follow my Fibbo level guide per the usual. keep it simple. Peace!

[Cobra]

$AAII bull - $AAII bear shows retailers are getting bearish but not extreme yet so could be still some rooms on the downside.