03/16/2024 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 62% chances to close up.

[JFR]

Oil stocks are on a run.

I posted about MPC here on March 13, and PSX on March 14.

Both still running strong.

There is usually something to play in the markets.

Not recommending, just sharing info.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Trend is still up, barely, imo. But for me the bias is still up.

In a range, at the top of the move.

12 days in the range.

On a pause/pullback, pretty much down to the EMA 20.

Strong move down Friday, ending in a doji.

The market wants to go up, imo, but profit takers and eager short sellers are having their say.

EMA 20 50 and 100 up, and in the right order.

Volume strong the last two days.

MACD and the STO, at tops, are not helpful with continuations for the bulls wanting trends, but they do help identify turns and pullbacks.

This trader emphasizes caution, as it is neither a bull market nor a bear market at this time, imo. Mr Market is making up his mind.

A clear breakout or breakdown is needed, along with other indicators.

For the most part, I don't like holding overnight in a market that has not settled its direction. But I do have some holdings long over this weekend, amongst stocks and ETFs.

Have a good weekend.

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" High volume and complacency are the focus this week. High volume indicated big change coming, $CPC < .8 is complacency level, I am not sure if it's just a result of opex on Friday. I see it as a FOMO moves at this level.

Dips will be bought on a daily trend following, I just want to shoe where the high volume were, more time than not it signifies a major trend change to follow.

$CPC, be fearful when everyone is greedy.

Swing setup: wait for new sell setup, well under 5 DMA. stick to what works until it doesn't.

Intraday: Friday closed were not as weak, new swing low but buyers holding up well. R/R ratio is low on both bulls and bears here. I am easy, the Fibo level will decide for me. I am leaning very bearish into next week. trade well, peace!

[BullBear52x]

Looking the mega cap leaders that are still having MACD bullish crossed: AAPL, GOOG, and MSFT , what is key take away from this ?if the rotation were among these mega caps, back and forth, the major index would never fail, Nasdaq is the weakest link among them at the moment.

MSFT is the strongest yet can not hold onto a new HH.

AAPL could have a bottom here above 174.

GOOG since the peak gap down, it managed to get back in top consolidation range, hitting resistance at 38.2%, bearish bias.

Last but not least, the new star general in town. NVDA. inside top consolidation phase, leaning bearish under 38.2%