heavenskrow wrote:Man I wonder how many bears are licking their wounds still.
Been holding TMV from last week's bear trap, and its paying off very nice.
I hate to rub it in, but damn I LOVE when good analysis works.
There were 11 bears shorting at average of 119ish yesterday alone. today couple shorting at 121ish.
the rest in hibernation.
Went short with TZA at 38.38. Holding breath.
I'm seeing more upside to the RUT. TNA probably has another day or so to go.
The one mistake I made I stop hedging the last two days. I am still holding on TZA and seeing no turn sign either. tonight I will buy TNA to hedge if IWM close above 200ma.
Sold TZA at 38.42 (bought at 38.38). Kept watching to see if stupid thing would go up after I sold. Looks like not, but by the time I post this, it will go up. TZA acting crazy, won't even try to get back in when it is going schizo.
I see little rising wedge here. 14 min to go, hopefully bulls could hold til the close.
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VIX back at 30 level. Occurred on Aug 17th, Aug 31st, Sept 16th. All 3 days marked intermediate high points.
Over the next month or so I expect VIX 30 to break to the downside but not before a retrace lower in S&P first (maybe to 1170 to fill gaps). This rally has been stronger than I anticipated without pullbacks, but the NAAIM data suggested as much since it hit the lowest back-to-back readings ever. Bearish sentiment will no doubt plunge over the next month, clearing the way for better risk/reward bearish trades.
If we get back near 1220 I will re-enter a short position with a stop above the highest rally point (1235) since the mini-crash.
There shouldn't be any doubt now that we can re-test the 200 day MA over the next month.
Call me a fool. Entered a discretionary trade at 3pm when SPX fell through 1214. Stop above 1220. Bought 600 SDS at 21.99 . . . This is not according to my rules, but everything is acting quite extended.
Expect a few days down soon, me hopes. (Got my stop in though).
Swing to Intermediate SPX Analysis - multiple time frame - Daily & 60 min time and price cycle analysis.
Usually trade SSO / SDS
hmm, rising wedge broken, the pullback is just too sharp. I don't have time to update...
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Glad I bought my last bit of TVIX before the bots were let loose.
*note to self- take profits on TVIX and don't get too greedy once the correction takes us under 1200... we are after all, in a JBTFD mode in the intermediate term