10/26/2011 Intraday Watering

[Dow Trader]

For who still short this market, this is one of old school traders rules regarding paper loss:
IF YOU POSITION IS CORRECT, MARKET SHOULD NOT GO AGAINST IT BY TIME AND PRICE TOGETHER.

for me, as I posted before, I will not be in the bear camp ( which means buying the dips with tight stop ) until ES prints 1092 before 1264

another old shool rule:

THE EXIT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE ENTRY

[Cobra]

Cobra, looking at short term, not intraday/daily, I don't see much downside in the charts unless 1220/1200 fails. But reading your comments I sense a slightly bearish bias - how come if I may ask?

SPXweek.png

Because chart pattern clearly is 3 push up.

Because Rydex traders have accumulated very large bull fund.

We'll see.

I'm not short yet. The only short protection was out a moment ago when I gave up in calling bears. Should be very good timing to turn down now, I guess!!!

[jarbo456]

yup. i agree with all the bulls on the board. all of the emotionality is a sign, in my opinion, that we're close to capitulation.

i'm definitely emotional and frustrated with my monster 175 contract SPY put that i've averaged into over the past two+ weeks. i'm obviously hedging and making gains going long on certain days. the fact is, after 8-10 years of doing this, this is definitely the most difficult market to short in my experience (maybe some of the old timers here will refute this). but there are powers in place that do not want the market to go down, and these powers are far more entwined in today's politics than ever before.

as a result, i think i have to learn, as this isn't my first huge short position i've been stuck in for weeks at a time this year, and realize that i'm not comfortable making swing trades short the market. i will short intraday, but from now on, never overnight.

i think everyone else stuck in my boat have to consider this mentality as well.

[Petsamo]

Anyone familiar with RIMM?

They had their earnings a few weeks ago. Today, it got hammered bad. Any care to nibble?

Haven't traded RIMM since last year. Quick look to me now says price target of $17 (soon).

Thanks for the input. I bought 150 shares at 21.02. Since, I measure things relative to EWZ (Brazil), I'm hoping it would outperform EWZ for the next 3 days.

[champix]

Do not want to give lessons but trading is easy, to stay alive in trading is a real hell.
So just keep in mind:
- money management is vital (do not take position risking more than 25% of your portfolio)
- cutting your arm is safer than cutting your head
- markets are here to stick most of us, so do not try to dream what gonna happen... just look the price action !
And of course, do not forget that political markets are more than dangerous... especially now !
Good luck to ALL !

[agnosia]

What? Explain to me what's bullish about this situation.

that's what i am saying. just trade price, block out the news. insiders know more than you always...when the tape is bull friendly, trade on their side, and vice versa. everything else is noise.

[ultramarine]

TED spread just keeps on rising.

Thanks. TED is a bears best friend. Maybe their only friend these days...

[BullBear52x]

Back to a drawing board, add $vix to my bird view mid term.

[Cobra]

ok Cobra...I know one of your rules...major distribution followed by major accumulation leads to major distribution tomorrow...is that correct?

Somebody tell me tomorrow is going to be better for the bears. please...

Cobra, just in case you missed my question...you know you have an extremely active board.

I think you missed my answer.

[agnosia]

guys bottom line the govt and ben bernake will do EVERYTHING in their power to keep this tape up.. there's nothing else you need to know.

[CognitiveDissonance]

yup. i agree with all the bulls on the board. all of the emotionality is a sign, in my opinion, that we're close to capitulation.

i'm definitely emotional and frustrated with my monster 175 contract SPY put that i've averaged into over the past two+ weeks. i'm obviously hedging and making gains going long on certain days. the fact is, after 8-10 years of doing this, this is definitely the most difficult market to short in my experience (maybe some of the old timers here will refute this). but there are powers in place that do not want the market to go down, and these powers are far more entwined in today's politics than ever before.

as a result, i think i have to learn, as this isn't my first huge short position i've been stuck in for weeks at a time this year, and realize that i'm not comfortable making swing trades short the market. i will short intraday, but from now on, never overnight.

i think everyone else stuck in my boat have to consider this mentality as well.

Thanks for the advice, I think I'm going to change my rules.

[KENA]

Not a good day..Got caught without my hedge.

[agnosia]

Do not want to give lessons but trading is easy, to stay alive in trading is a real hell.
So just keep in mind:
- money management is vital (do not take position risking more than 25% of your portfolio)
- cutting your arm is safer than cutting your head
- markets are here to stick most of us, so do not try to dream what gonna happen... just look the price action !
And of course, do not forget that political markets are more than dangerous... especially now !
Good luck to ALL !

25% ????????????? are you mad. risk only 1-2% tops.

[ricster3]

What? Explain to me what's bullish about this situation.

that's what i am saying. just trade price, block out the news. insiders know more than you always...when the tape is bull friendly, trade on their side, and vice versa. everything else is noise.

Fine, but today's action, when I shorted, had NOTHING bullish to it... ended up blowing up my account (only in paper so far).
Following the price intraday is wrong then?

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today, indeed bears couldn't make 2 down days in a row! Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

[StrikePrice]

I respect those who are Bullish. Alternate looks nice too. in Wave 3 of 5 should be a very Bullish day tomorrow.

[Cobra]

I sense sentiments are in despair here, so we'll do another poll after bell!

[agnosia]

What? Explain to me what's bullish about this situation.

that's what i am saying. just trade price, block out the news. insiders know more than you always...when the tape is bull friendly, trade on their side, and vice versa. everything else is noise.

Fine, but today's action, when I shorted, had NOTHING bullish to it... ended up blowing up my account (only in paper so far).
Following the price intraday is wrong then?

that's not true. we had a cup and handle breakout.

[Mr. BachNut]

For who still short this market, this is one of old school traders rules regarding paper loss:
IF YOU POSITION IS CORRECT, MARKET SHOULD NOT GO AGAINST IT BY TIME AND PRICE TOGETHER.

for me, as I posted before, I will not be in the bear camp ( which means buying the dips with tight stop ) until ES prints 1092 before 1264

Roger that Dow Trader, though I think you mean 1192.

[bobo]

StrikePrice:

Do you have us in A or C of minor 2? In either case, do you have us in (v) and you are saying we are in iii of (v)?