10/26/2011 Intraday Watering

[champix]

Do not want to give lessons but trading is easy, to stay alive in trading is a real hell.
So just keep in mind:
- money management is vital (do not take position risking more than 25% of your portfolio)
- cutting your arm is safer than cutting your head
- markets are here to stick most of us, so do not try to dream what gonna happen... just look the price action !
And of course, do not forget that political markets are more than dangerous... especially now !
Good luck to ALL !

25% ????????????? are you mad. risk only 1-2% tops.

looool... I am talking to the ones with little portfolio and big leverage !
If you are not in this case, you do not need any advices. But to burn an account, you are mostly in your first "age' of trading.
I never risk more than 5% of my portfolio on a medium term position.
Last thing, an old man said : to make a little fortune in financial markets, the easiest way is to begin trading with a big fortune !
:):):)
Good night all !

[Tabby]

StrikePrice:

Do you have us in A or C of minor 2? In either case, do you have us in (v) and you are saying we are in iii of (v)?

Most of EW traders that I know use EMA 13/34 or EMA 20 and 34, is/are there any reason/s that you prefer different EMA?

[Mr. BachNut]

TED spread just keeps on rising.

Thanks. TED is a bears best friend. Maybe their only friend these days...

TED can't help the bear while the bull is chasing him around the ring.

I just post so people are aware that equities and LIBOR sending two contrary messages about risk. One will turn out wrong some day.

[BullBear52x]

I bet you, tomorrow someone will tell you that they short at the close yeap, not now but tomorrow they will.
be fearful when everyone is greedy, the old man once said.
Thanks Cobra, I am still holding half of my shorts, I should have reduce them down to 20% but I didn't.

When market goes up for no reason it's known as Short squeeze
When market goes down for no reason it's know as taking pig to the slaughter house, why not bull squeeze? GLTA

[swinger]

We are in the year end push up season, regardless the overbought condition. It can be even more overbought.

[Cobra]

guys, let's vote! viewtopic.php?f=9&t=344

[bobo]

I am new to this blog and wasn't suggesting I use any EMA. The EW blogs I have been on don't refer to EMA 13/34 or EMA 20 and 34 to my knowledge. It strikes me that this site is more heavily frequented by day/swing traders who use EMAs on short-term charts.

StrikePrice:

Do you have us in A or C of minor 2? In either case, do you have us in (v) and you are saying we are in iii of (v)?

Most of EW traders that I know use EMA 13/34 or EMA 20 and 34, is/are there any reason/s that you prefer different EMA?

[silkway]

I bet you, tomorrow someone will tell you that they short at the close yeap, not now but tomorrow they will.
be fearful when everyone is greedy, the old man once said.
Thanks Cobra, I am still holding half of my shorts, I should have reduce them down to 20% but I didn't.

When market goes up for no reason it's known as Short squeeze
When market goes down for no reason it's know as taking pig to the slaughter house, why not bull squeeze? GLTA

Stand with you. A little nervous, honestly.

[Petsamo]

What? Explain to me what's bullish about this situation.

that's what i am saying. just trade price, block out the news. insiders know more than you always...when the tape is bull friendly, trade on their side, and vice versa. everything else is noise.

The bullish case:
Dividends of emerging markets & Europe are very attractive, twice better than the S&P. Wanna mess with bonds?
Obamacare may be ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court (of Kangaroos).
Very good chance Obama will not get re-elected.
Oil is not a problem if the oil companies are let loose by Obama & the EPA.
etc

[uempel]

Cobra, looking at short term, not intraday/daily, I don't see much downside in the charts unless 1220/1200 fails. But reading your comments I sense a slightly bearish bias - how come if I may ask?

SPXweek.png

Because chart pattern clearly is 3 push up.

Because Rydex traders have accumulated very large bull fund.

We'll see.

I'm not short yet. The only short protection was out a moment ago when I gave up in calling bears. Should be very good timing to turn down now, I guess!!!

Yeah, but consider that medium term mom is up, P&F's flashing buys, end of year sesonality and did you see how the upper BB of the weekly 13/1 held today? Last but not least: the trend is up. I'm not betting on a new high in December, but I sure do see more nibbling at 1270/1285 thes next few days/weeks.

[uempel]

Cobra, looking at short term, not intraday/daily, I don't see much downside in the charts unless 1220/1200 fails. But reading your comments I sense a slightly bearish bias - how come if I may ask?

SPXweek.png

Because chart pattern clearly is 3 push up.

Because Rydex traders have accumulated very large bull fund.

We'll see.

I'm not short yet. The only short protection was out a moment ago when I gave up in calling bears. Should be very good timing to turn down now, I guess!!!

Yeah, but consider that medium term mom is up, P&F's flashing buys, end of year sesonality and did you see how weekly BB13/1 held today? Last but not least: the trend ain't bearish. I'm not betting on a new high in December, but I sure do see more nibbling at 1270/1285 these next few days/weeks.

[silkway]

I do not believe EU can release a plan to satisfied both banks and govs.

[StrikePrice]

StrikePrice:

Do you have us in A or C of minor 2? In either case, do you have us in (v) and you are saying we are in iii of (v)?

Just updated my chart.

Primary has us just completed B and starting C looking for 1216 area.

Alternate has us in v of 5 looking for 1262.

[Cobra]

Cobra, looking at short term, not intraday/daily, I don't see much downside in the charts unless 1220/1200 fails. But reading your comments I sense a slightly bearish bias - how come if I may ask?

SPXweek.png

Because chart pattern clearly is 3 push up.

Because Rydex traders have accumulated very large bull fund.

We'll see.

I'm not short yet. The only short protection was out a moment ago when I gave up in calling bears. Should be very good timing to turn down now, I guess!!!

Yeah, but consider that medium term mom is up, P&F's flashing buys, end of year sesonality and did you see how weekly BB13/1 held today? Last but not least: the trend ain't bearish. I'm not betting on a new high in December, but I sure do see more nibbling at 1270/1285 these next few days/weeks.

my bigger picture is up. I think I've made it very clear: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2011/10 ... 3-push-up/, the very first few lines: The big picture, maintain what I said in 10/14 Market Outlook, it’s a 2 legged up and we’re now on the very 1st leg up.

[jarbo456]

I do not believe EU can release a plan to satisfied both banks and govs.

the problem is whether the EU releases a viable plan or not doesn't even matter anymore. by the time they release ANYTHING it could be 2012. and by then we all know what's going to happen...a revisit to 1000.

so all of the theatrics that's going on right now is vague enough to make bulls believe.

at the end of the day i don't think you'll find many bulls saying, "yes, the EU will solve itself." what do you see them saying? the charts are bullish, the seasonality is bullish, the earnings are bullish, hell they're even saying that Obama won't be elected (and that's bullish?!?!) etc. etc....

so as long as the EU doesn't implode or vote on an impotent deal that's then forced to be made public, then the markets will move up. right now, the powers at be are happy with the way things are going...aka...not going anywhere. this non-action is being digested as bullish for the markets. why the hell shouldn't they keep it this way?

[TWJ]

I respect those who are Bullish. Alternate looks nice too. in Wave 3 of 5 should be a very Bullish day tomorrow.

FWIW... I agree and you might even raise the target some....

[BullBear52x]

Reversal candle and RSI Negative Divergence still in play guys, I am simple it is what it is.

[bobo]

StrikePrice: I don't follow the 1216. Did you mean 1316?

StrikePrice:

Do you have us in A or C of minor 2? In either case, do you have us in (v) and you are saying we are in iii of (v)?

Just updated my chart.

Primary has us just completed B and starting C looking for 1216 area.

Alternate has us in v of 5 looking for 1262.

[GreedyKojiro]

Cobra, looking at short term, not intraday/daily, I don't see much downside in the charts unless 1220/1200 fails. But reading your comments I sense a slightly bearish bias - how come if I may ask?

SPXweek.png

Because chart pattern clearly is 3 push up.

Because Rydex traders have accumulated very large bull fund.

We'll see.

I'm not short yet. The only short protection was out a moment ago when I gave up in calling bears. Should be very good timing to turn down now, I guess!!!

Yeah, but consider that medium term mom is up, P&F's flashing buys, end of year sesonality and did you see how weekly BB13/1 held today? Last but not least: the trend ain't bearish. I'm not betting on a new high in December, but I sure do see more nibbling at 1270/1285 these next few days/weeks.

my bigger picture is up. I think I've made it very clear: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2011/10 ... 3-push-up/, the very first few lines: The big picture, maintain what I said in 10/14 Market Outlook, it’s a 2 legged up and we’re now on the very 1st leg up.

That is exactly what I used! Also you mentioned that range day is not good for bears

[StrikePrice]

StrikePrice: I don't follow the 1216. Did you mean 1316?

StrikePrice:

Do you have us in A or C of minor 2? In either case, do you have us in (v) and you are saying we are in iii of (v)?

Just updated my chart.

Primary has us just completed B and starting C looking for 1216 area.

Alternate has us in v of 5 looking for 1262.

I run 2 to 3 counts always. My Primary is Bearish, so looking to head down. See attached. Alternate is Bullish, so looking up. I also only count wave from what I consider Major Tops and Bottoms. I don't keep a running history. Last Major Bottom was 1075.