Petsamo wrote:To prevent overseas markets from selling this and gapping US down, this thing needs to retreat well off the highs.
Doesn't look like it wants too...
Finishing at the highs gives a 60% probability of a gap down.
Finishing at the lows gives a 60% probability of a gap up.
I did a spreadsheet on it once to get the statistics.
It makes sense too because overseas markets are challenging US, if you wanna continue up, rally again, or if you wanna continue down, sell off again.
well, that's it for today. a little late, but thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.
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Not doji. The previous day was a northern doji on spy daily. And northern doji means a reversal of trend to the upside which came true today.
it's only has 51% chance. well better than Vegas. since today didn't close below 127.66 it's not a Doji, but a gap up tomorrow will give another short an excellent spot to short, so far it close under 200ma 1min. chart, I am shorts so I will have to sugar coat my view.
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
MrMiyagi wrote:Hey Cobra, what is that Google bot/Yahoo bot stuff in the list at the bottom?
that's OK, they need index my site otherwise the search engine cannot find us.
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uempel wrote:Mr. BuchNut, I'm not sure if this is a bull market yet. This might go on for a few days/weeks, but medium term the fundamentals should pull the market back down. I read the GS weekly FA report a few days ago, they are extremely negative, say stagnation probability 40%, recession probability 40%. Equity performance in those kinds of markets is weak...
Today my charts were traps. Hope nobody was mislead.
AF4.png
Agree on the fundamentals, but I have lost money trading fundamentals against the tape. So, I acknowledge it when the tape is contrary to my beliefs and look forward to when the tape trades with my beliefs.
Not doji. The previous day was a northern doji on spy daily. And northern doji means a reversal of trend to the upside which came true today.
it's only has 51% chance. well better than Vegas. since today didn't close below 127.66 it's not a Doji, but a gap up tomorrow will give another short an excellent spot to short, so far it close under 200ma 1min. chart, I am shorts so I will have to sugar coat my view.
Here's the good news, the hourly candle is a southern doji, so pretty good chance the opening hour will be in red. if you short at the close today, you're in safe hands. I hate playing daytrading shit. waiting for that negative divergence so I can swing a few days for fun.
It's been a while! Travel overseas and new job back in the States... But, I have been observing / listening (good stuff, as always). Interestingly, no discussion of Zweig Breadth Indicator here. This plays, I believe, strongly into the strong rise we've seen in the markets. But, shorts, stay strong! Fibonnaci says we're close to another demarcation point... Good luck all.
A.
stockcycle wrote:This statistic is for fun: Condition to screen SPX had a day down then up from 1-1.5% the next day (like yesterday) then up more than 2.5% (may be like today). Buy at close today (collum 3) and to see the next day (collum 4). The screening data from Jan 02 1950. We can see the 8/11 is the positive.
Cobra said higher high tomorrow. Your stat suggests chance that close in green tomorrow is greater than 72%... Bulls rule!