Weekend Watering

[BullBear52x]

OK one more, I mentioned before about when daily RSI(5) on SPY >70/<30 a gap up/down to follow is most likely exhaustion gap. Friday is another one of those gaps. so far on this run up 3 out of 3 we have lower low then the day of the gap, so let see if the 4th one will do the same.

[waverider]

I also watch IWM to make decisions on TNA/TZA. Thanks again!

Here's a chart of crude, looks like it's met major resistance. And the Dollar with potential support areas.

[tyalgo]

Has anyone done a study on the effects of stock buy back by all the companies? for eg: IBM still has $12.bil of fire powder for stock buy back. Not sure if this extreme is actually part of the effects?

[rhight]

An October to remember appears striking on the weekly chart.
Time for a correction?
”Yes, a small correction would be healthy…” say the talking heads.
“The beginning of the big W3 DOWN...” say the Wavy-Gravy EW technicians, starting with Bob P.

I have my own indicator: when Flabby Abby will appear on TV to tell us stories about SPX 1600 around the corner…it will be time to consider a serious downturn…

Thanks cougar great charts and analysis as always, I think everyone here are at awe of the move from recent low until now both bulls and bears alike, 99er is pressing hard on a turn, Cobra agreed this is not sustainable, others think new 52 week high is not if but when, Flabby Abby got mentioned, Dow 3600 is in the talk again and the best of it all, NO one dare to call out a TOP. capitulation? hibernation? or bears are totally death? and to think that any longs trader to hold out on the gain this much this long is unthinkable some one got to take profit at some point that I am sure, I am guessing this coming week also sounds like we are all on the same boat again? not good the 1% like to poke fun at the 99% from times to times.

I've enjoyed looking over everyones' posts. Thank you all. I kind of look at it this way. The last quarterly statements were horrendous. The retail investor has been pulling money out of funds. And now a rip roaring short squeeze and who knows what else FX carry trade blow back CDS market collapse collateral melt up 20% in 18 days because no one knows what the hell is going on your guess is as good as mine yippee end of month great report. So Friday was a hold your breath, don't blow it over, let's get through the end of the month, kind of day, IMHO. My guess; 1260 will be retested first, then look to see what happens between 1260 and 1300. Do we go higher, drop to 1230, or consolidate then reverse for a week or 2?

Quoted From Lipper : (released 10/18/2011)
• For the third month in four investors were net redeemers of fund assets for September, removing $13.4 billion from the conventional...more funds business. Net inflows from bond funds (+$10.1 billion) weren’t enough to offset the $13.4-billion and $10.0-bllion redemptions from stock & mixed-equity funds and money market funds during the month.

• For the fifth consecutive month investors were net redeemers of USDE Funds, pulling out $13.9 billion. Large-cap funds (-$8.2 billion) experienced their twenty-eighth consecutive month of outflows. None of Lipper’s 4x3-matrix fund classifications attracted net new money.

• For September institutional investors made net purchases (+$6.0 billion) of World Equity Fund assets, while investors in loaded funds and no-load funds withdrew a net $2.1 billion and $14.4 million, respectively.

• For the seventh month in eight bond funds (+$10.1 billion) witnessed net purchases, while money market funds saw their sixth month of net outflows (-$10.0 billion) in seven months

[99er]

Sunday Evening Updates

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/eurusd_7882.html
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/es_30.html
NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/nq_30.html


Have a nice one.

[cougar]

Late night note: This Market has many magicians and you never know where the rabbit is hidden…
This time he was extracted from the top hat of the Japanese chief-banker… and Alice said: “…Curiouser and curiouser! ”…while looking at the USDJPY moves.

[xfradnex]

Thank you “xfradnex“. I agree…this breakout “will be clipped”. The question is: if THEY will try to give us the feeling (during the next 2-3 trading days) that the up-move still has some “oomph” in it, how high could it go without encountering a major resistance? And: is this potential continuation going to be tradable?
That is why I am looking for higher targets. One of them is suggested by the SPY Gann Fan, which worked, so far, better than expected:

I Suspect that the hit will come at or a little bit above the 4x line target you have. The 4 x line would establish a new downward channel than that is not as steep as previous downward channels ( Not bullish, but a clear sign that that things will not get to ugly). Cobra is calling for a temp pullback this week (futures are down 1% already).

[rpccharts]

SPX Daily Chart H&S Bear Flags 150 Day MA S/R



We watched the H&S patern unfold this summer, working out in textbook fashion hitting the target in August (blue lines). The pink bear flag was in play until the big rally in October nullified the pattern. The neon green bear flag remains in play although it is a sloppy flag. Nonetheless, should price move down from here, the 1040-1060 area would be targeted. Note the long horizontal blue line which is the neckline for the H&S and also important sturdy S/R at 1260-ish all year long, which price tested late last week and failed. The 150 day MA is also at 1261 which highlights this 1260-1265 area as an important confluence, price committing above or below this level is extremely important. The 150 day MA slope is one of Keystone's Secular Signals. Note the respect that price shows for this MA (grey circles) and this is where price sits as of this writing. The 150 day MA sloped upwards from 2010 into August 2011 (grey arrow), peaked, and turned downwards. This signals that the markets have fallen into a Secular Bear Market pattern as of early August. The red lines show the negative divergence top that created the spank down in May as Keystone projected, then, conversely, note the positive divergence bottom (teal lines) creating the bounce in early October. Price action now shows a sideways posture with four critical S/R levels; 1285 (late October highs), 1260-ish (the H&S neckline, 150 day MA and horizontal S/R confluence), 1238, and 1220, price now in the middle with 1260 and 1285 R above, and 1238 and 1220 S below. Simply watch price action moving forward in relation to these four S/R levels.