Weekend Watering

[jarbo456]

Thought I'd get it started. There was a huge ramp up at the end of the day, but there wasn't really much support in other markets (though this has mattered very little for the bullish powers at be), overall, bad for the bears though, IMO.

Currently Greece is holding their confidence vote on the good ol' Pap'. As of now, it's tied.

Have a good Friday night, and am looking forward to the commentary and charts of ya'll.

[dcurban1]

Passed the vote but it looks like he will step aside and a new government will be formed. May get a pop on Monday but does not solve the problem.

Here is what I wrote for my blog:


Berlusconi faces mounting pressure to go
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/ ... AI20111103

European Stocks Decline After Group of 20 Fails to Agree on IMF Funding

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... ctive.html

U-6 Rate

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Unemployment Graphs from Calculated Risk
http://www.crgraphs.com/p/employment.html

Greek 1 year bond yields – 235%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

This week was fun for a number of reasons. We had great numbers from Qualcomm and the mining sector and bad news pretty much everywhere else.

The biggest surprise was not MF Global’s collapse or Greece playing out like a Greek tragedy but German factory orders collapsing in September. This combined with falling retail sales in France will likely push the Eurozone into a recession.

New ECB head Mario Draghi surprised everyone (called this a week ago) by cutting interest rates by 25 basis points. Next up should be massive money printing which will ignite gold and silver prices

Angela Merkel drew the line in the sand for Greece telling the Greek’s if they have to choose between the EU and Greece they will choose the EU.

As for the Greece, they may be the only ones who understand what is happening. The biggest problem for Greece is that they are running out of time.

Christmas sales may save the US economy in the fourth quarter but looking forward to 2012 there is nothing but dark clouds on the horizon.

The unemployment reports were just ok. We are not making a real dent in the U-6 or the unemployment rate

But I will talk more about this and downgraded economic forecasts in my Monday morning update.

Onto Groupon, how hard is it to go up when you cannot short the stock? There is so much lipstick on that pig that you should just stay away.

Instead of complaining look at it this way, the more it soars the better the eventual short opportunity.

[dcurban1]

Here are my links for Monday. I think we get a pop but after that who knows. Growth forecasts are being lowered across the board and the numbers coming out are weak. That makes it hard for me to get behind a rally to new highs.


China PMI in surprise fall, lowest since 2009

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/ ... 3F20111101

French Consumer Spending Falls

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 76770.html

Germany slashes 2012 economic growth forecast

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/ ... C520111020

Greek 1 year bond yields

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

Greek 2 year bond yields

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB2YR:IND

AAII Sentiment Survey

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, November 2011 (pdf)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetaryp ... 111102.pdf

[dcurban1]

Even if Greece gets through here this is their debt repayment schedule.

Greece-Debt-Repayment-Schedule.png (18.28 KiB) Viewed 5916 times

[99er]

So honey...what about that margin call?

Oh...you want to see the Jeremy Irons movie tonight?

No dear. This margin call:

"on November 4, today, the CME just made the maintenance margin, traditionally about 26% lower than the initial margin for specs, equal. For everything. Which means that by close of business Monday, millions of options and futures holders will be forced to deposit billions in additional capital to the CME just so they are not found to be margin deficient, and thus receive a margin call. Naturally, since it is very unlikely that this incremental amount of liquidity can be easily procured in one business day, we anticipate the issuance of hundreds of thousands of margin calls Monday, followed by forced liquidations of margin accounts across America... and the world."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-goes- ... everything

Have a great weekend.

[Al_Dente]

Hello All. Two charts
The Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator
Anytime this indicator “thrusts” from under 41 to above 60 in less than 10 days, it is a bullish signal.
Its signals are infrequent: a bull signal this month, prior to that a bull signal near the march low this year, prior to that a bull signal near the august 2010 low.
http://screencast.com/t/8Ma6DH04b1l

And T2109, the Percentage of stocks trading one channel above their 200dma
(one channel is equal to one standard deviation from the moving average)
Note the spikes in T2109 (blue) as SSO (purple) made various highs (highs are marked with red vertical lines).
Currently it doesn’t look very toppy to me, but am happy to hear other views.
http://screencast.com/t/axdKRQMk6Mqj

PS: I believe sunday is daylight savings time?

[BullBear52x]

Confusing time? Lets see what I can do here.
We are at top of down channel if diamond top is too fancy of a term to use.

H&S in the making? could be, but what I see here is a break up from 122ish and the top basing is in the making, clearly 3 supports and the fact is bears can not break through that floor.

What about Fib Fan got to say? Bearish, no two ways about it. a drop below 38.2% fan line tells me trend change has occurred, a trade >129.42 to reset/voided this Fib fan

Here is what I am really focusing on a detail of latest movements, Neck line area, down Channel and all, lets focus in on each step of the chart patterns after a break up from 122+ level until now, see note on chart:
A and B: A break out that formed a bull flag, bull flag broke out and gaped up. a success for Bulls.
C: Gap down to fill the gap, not quite bearish yet here still hope on gap support.
D: Gap down big, chattered the hope of gap support and on top of that creating a pattern know as Bearish Cluster Island Reversal
E: a break down, formed a bear flag, and today that bear flag is broken.
F and G: a trade over F is needed for bull to cancel out bear flag and a G direction will only enhance a bearish case to its fullest a touch to the neck line this time will validate H&S.

on the short term indicators/oscillators and moving average, my setting showing quite bullish, a trade above 5dma, a closed above MA ribbon, crossed back bullish on RSI and MACD

So, what to do next? My yellow line will give the final score to bulls or bears. pretty simple see GLTA

[tdo722]

Man, i love your t/a very much bullbear52. Quick question, why did you decided to hold short overnight at the close of thursday?

[Al_Dente]

The Ted Spread is still bearish, and its divergence with SPX persists; one of them has to give.
The last time TED was at these levels was June last year, when SPX was 1025-1050.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p ... =245697340

[99er]

Good Morning

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx_05.html
RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/rut_05.html

Have a nice weekend!

[rhight]

11/4 : Friday the market closed in a nuetral state with regards to momentum.
This seems odd to say after the month of October saw a gain not seen it 37
years! Yet, the Daily, 60 min., 15 min., and 5 min. ADX are all <20 and
falling. This is interpreted as meaning that there is "No Trend" on all these time
frames! On the charts this will correspond to the appearance of symetrical
triangles and stochastics near 50. It also means that for analysis we use
patterns, support and resistance, oscillator divergences and failures for
directional cues. My trend based indicators (Price, Volume, and Strength) still
show us in a bull trend, but getting overbought. There is a possible 123
reversal and Diamond top pattern in the works. But, a pennant or symetrical
triangle after an up move, can become a continuation up. Nothing is for certain
with central banks and governments always looking for ways to prop up the
"free" markets. So good luck, place your bets, and take your chances.

[Al_Dente]

Price relative to SPY chart shows the strongest: small caps, china and oil (equities), and the weakest: banks, transports and QQQ.
WHY are the Qs showing so weak on this chart?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ:SP ... =248012953

[jarbo456]

Price relative to SPY chart shows the strongest: small caps, china and oil (equities), and the weakest: banks, transports and QQQ.
WHY are the Qs showing so weak on this chart?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ:SP ... =248012953

Not sure what conclusion can be drawn from this, but I do like this chart. Q's were also not participating in the October rally either.

[Apple]

So honey...what about that margin call?

Oh...you want to see the Jeremy Irons movie tonight?

No dear. This margin call:

"on November 4, today, the CME just made the maintenance margin, traditionally about 26% lower than the initial margin for specs, equal. For everything. Which means that by close of business Monday, millions of options and futures holders will be forced to deposit billions in additional capital to the CME just so they are not found to be margin deficient, and thus receive a margin call. Naturally, since it is very unlikely that this incremental amount of liquidity can be easily procured in one business day, we anticipate the issuance of hundreds of thousands of margin calls Monday, followed by forced liquidations of margin accounts across America... and the world."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-goes- ... everything

Have a great weekend.

Here's another opinion from: http://kiddynamitesworld.com/the-cme-ma ... in-a-tizzy

[rhight]

Price relative to SPY chart shows the strongest: small caps, china and oil (equities), and the weakest: banks, transports and QQQ.
WHY are the Qs showing so weak on this chart?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ:SP ... =248012953

Here is another way of looking at sectors using the SPDR etf's. Growth sectors dominate the performance vs. the defensive sectors, as might be expected in an uptrend. But . . .

over the last six days, you can see a rotation into Utilities, a defensive sector.

[BullBear52x]

Man, i love your t/a very much bullbear52. Quick question, why did you decided to hold short overnight at the close of thursday?

I can say anything after the fact and it will sound good Thursday we were in a bear flag pattern so I would find any excuses to sell let it be over bought or negative divergence. over squeezed probably describe it best for last Thursday.

[tdo722]

Guys look at the weekly chart for spx. Once 1292 is broken up, this last and final leg will take us to approximately 1400. If this santa rally can do just that, then next year is the greatest crash in the history of crashes after final leg aka wave 5 is done on the weekly chart.

[99er]

Updates

DWCF http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/dwcf_05.html

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/copper_05.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/crude_05.html

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/gold_05.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/silver_05.html

30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/30y_05.html

More tomorrow. A good day to you.

[mozart]

CME Margin call:
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-informati ... 11-400.pdf
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... shift.html
zerohedge has update:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-issue ... -aftermath

It looks like this will lift PM.

[cougar]

Great discussion and great charts, guys!
“Confusing time?” - asked BullBear… Yes, no doubt about it.
I think that this New MM Octave pretty much says it…The view exposed here that we are in a short term bullish mode is quite compatible with its levels, which leave plenty of room up ..or uphill.
If this trend will be confirmed during the first days of next week…short term swings could become longer term…