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bullishlaoguo wrote:What if VIX and SPY both close read, any implication? Cobra?
any statistical advantage? waverider?waverider wrote:bullishlaoguo wrote:What if VIX and SPY both close read, any implication? Cobra?
Mongoose, I totally agree with your economic assessment. When bank lending is drying up, bank stocks are dropping like rocks, politicians cannot do their jobs, low employment growth, and significant global risks emanating from Europe and Asia, I cannot see the rational for 3=% growth in the US.Mongoose wrote:I am an economist, not a TA expert, however, if I understand the explanation of the cycle, since the S&P 500 support level was broken yesterday, then the cycle bottom is expected within the next 5-7 days -- which I understand to be lower than 1080.Cobra wrote:never heard that.Mongoose wrote:Cobra -- have you ever heard of a "left translated cycle"?
Do you think the market may be in one now, or in the process of forming one?
I was doing some reading about it, and from what I could understand, it seemed to suggest an explanation as to why your "prediction" that the August lows would be broken lower, and that it might take a few months to express that . . . I thought that was very interesting to compare.
If you have any thoughts on that, it would be appreciated. thx.
I thought it was interesting to see one theory express a similar theory from different view points.
As an economist I see liquidity drying up faster than water in Death Valley -- building up to levels just prior to the financial crisis and the market collapse. (even during that time the equity markets were ignoring the rising risks.) Banks are highly sensitive to lending to each other, and they are reducing their lending to emerging markets while they hastily try to recapitalize. So, I am short banks/financials and emerging markets.
I also see that the bond market is beginning to price in deflation for an extended period of time in various countries -- in particular take a look at Italian bond yields.
20% of S&P earnings come from Europe -- at some point, the market will have to acknowledge that.
Any cash I keep it in USD vs any other currency.
Thanks Cobra - have a nice weekend.
Love those guys.MrMiyagi wrote:I'm probably a little early but bought a bit of SLW here.
Thanks Cobra, victory for bulls or bears?Cobra wrote:20 min to go, OE day, anything can happen. bears need pray, as long as we close flat today, then it's a victory which if indeed I'd explain in the weekend report.
Cobra, victory for the bears or bulls if we close flat today? Thanks!Cobra wrote:20 min to go, OE day, anything can happen. bears need pray, as long as we close flat today, then it's a victory which if indeed I'd explain in the weekend report.
Victory for brokers.noob wrote:Thanks Cobra, victory for bulls or bears?
Not that I know of, but what generally happens when $VIX falls? SPY rises, I wouldn't want to be long over the weekend anyways.laoguo wrote:any statistical advantage? waverider?waverider wrote:bullishlaoguo wrote:What if VIX and SPY both close read, any implication? Cobra?
EFA wrote:You guys are too funny!!! Cat food is better than junk food, isnt't it?tdo722 wrote:I love eating kibbles too.Petsamo wrote:You bought TZA using unsettled funds?MrMiyagi wrote:Looks like I`ll be holding TZA through the weekend.
I bet Monday huge gap up, Tuesday I eat cat food.
Plus nothing seems very strong on the bull side.... bulls have been very disappointing today!
It is still in that trend channel I posted this morning. If it fills the 29 or 30 box on the P&F chart that would mean we head lower.jarbo456 wrote:VIX is down 6%, S&P is flat. interesting dichotomy.
VIX hourly looks a bit bearish. at least for another day or 3 me thinks.