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Was the top in?

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Was the top in?

Poll ended at Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:41 pm

Yes, the top was in, we're heading to the October lows.
66
42%
No, it's just a pullback so that we could have a very strong Thanksgiving rally.
85
54%
I know where the market is heading, yeah, I just don't want you to know. Do your own homework please!
7
4%
 
Total votes: 158

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Cobra
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Was the top in?

Post by Cobra »

Guys, time to vote again. Was the top in we're heading to the Oct lows or it's just a pullback before the strong Thanksgiving rally.
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maoof
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:56 am

Re: Was the top in?

Post by maoof »

I think we'll hold at either at 1206 or 1190 before rallying into the end of the year.
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Me XMan
Posts: 2014
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2011 12:01 pm

Re: Was the top in?

Post by Me XMan »

TTIIIMMMBBBEEERRRRRR
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BlackThought
Posts: 186
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:04 am

Re: Was the top in?

Post by BlackThought »

bulls vs bears are pretty even right now. i give bulls a slighter edge because we held $120
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bullybear
Posts: 69
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2011 7:53 pm

Re: Was the top in?

Post by bullybear »

You forgot question:

Yes, the top was in, but its just a correction so that we could have a very strong Santa Clause rally.
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JTrader
Posts: 54
Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 5:28 pm

Re: Was the top in?

Post by JTrader »

I sense a quick washout Monday or Tuesday then a big rally! Just a silly guess tho...
Follow my swing trades @ http://www.buysellmodel.com
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KENA
Posts: 2996
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:54 pm

Re: Was the top in?

Post by KENA »

Top is in unless we go up and break 1290/05. Pull back over for short term.
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Auole
Posts: 174
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2011 3:03 am

Re: Was the top in?

Post by Auole »

I think that that pointer dog is really trying to find and flush out all the derivative crooks but I don't know if he/she will be successful just right away. Meanwhile, HUI closed down under 200 MA, $BPGDM still sell signal and I'm holding my gold shorts over the weekend.
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PolarBull
Posts: 16
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:28 pm

Re: Was the top in?

Post by PolarBull »

I know where the market is heading .... not. I think it's a 50/50 where the market is heading next week. I would like to see SPX makes a correction down to at least 1190 before we commence the Christmas rally till Santa Claus comes home.

Anyway, I get the feeling that there is definitely more upside risk than downside risk at the moment.

By the way, if we follow Cobra's rule: change of government = 20 pts rally, we'll definitely have a rally Monday because Spain's general election is this Sunday :D :lol: :twisted:
Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing. --- Warren Buffet
muktuk
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2011 11:39 am

Re: Was the top in?

Post by muktuk »

The market may go up, or it may go down, and if it goes sideways there may be the potential to go up or down...
muktuk
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2011 11:39 am

Re: Was the top in?

Post by muktuk »

muktuk wrote:The market may go up, or it may go down, and if it goes sideways there may be the potential to go up or down...
assuming it does remain sideways...
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mac769
Posts: 183
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2011 9:27 am

Re: Was the top in?

Post by mac769 »

From my point of view there are close to a dozen reasons why the top might have been in and we are heading lower, despite positive seasonality:

1. Record spreads on European Sov Debt
2. Tech, materials and energy underperforming
3. Bearish triangle breakout on SPY
4. Bullish percent of SPX rolling over from elevated position
5. McClellan Summation Index looks like rolling over
6. 3-Month T-Bill discount rate in the tank
7. Very weak opex day (maxpain should at least have printed 124 on SPY)
8. Rising geo-political tensions (Syria, Iran)
9. MF Global might be the proverbial canary in the coalmine for things to come (RIP Bear Stearns..)
10. Signs of the China housing bubble to implode

The bulls on the other side remain mainly on "hopium"

1. The Euro crisis is resolved in a timely matter
2. The US grows faster than anticipated
3. The unavoidable Santa Claus rallye is about to start
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PLUNGE
Posts: 106
Joined: Thu Apr 07, 2011 12:40 pm

Re: Was the top in?

Post by PLUNGE »

Tony Caldaro, a very experienced Elliott Wave analyst I watch, has this short term prediction:

“The last two uptrends have been exactly 18 trading days, if indeed SPX 1293 ended the uptrend. And, the last two downtrends have been exactly 23 trading days. This suggests a potential downtrend low on November 28th. If we assume a 9% correction we’re looking at a potential low on November 28th around SPX 1177.”
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oldpigwang
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:58 am

Re: Was the top in?

Post by oldpigwang »

Double top should be :
top 1 at Oct 31, 2nd top at Xmas.
I like spx go down to 110ish in between my 2 top. The lower the better.
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