11/22/2011 Intraday Watering

[noob]

WOW!

112211 spx lt.JPG

Here is the chart going back 20 years.

Uber death cross?

[dcurban1]

That is what I am wondering but death crosses are never a good sign.

[dcurban1]

Technical Analysis (S&P daily, point and figure, and monthly)

http://atruecontrarian.blogspot.com/201 ... -2011.html

Reading Material

http://atruecontrarian.blogspot.com/201 ... -2011.html

[joegamma]

112211 spx lt.JPG

Here is the chart going back 20 years.

Look at the body last month=outside up after string of down months......do you want to be short anywhere above the lower 1/3 of October range? (at least in bigger picture the up month in October does not look bearish unless we are further south in November)

Cobra: thanks for your insight and helping all of us retain some trading capital!
I have been a lurker, this is first post

[noob]

Cobra, does today feel like a range day? Thanks

There's FOMC in the afternoon.

[BullTart]

Here is your uber death cross... unlike that monthly chart which has false crossovers with quick cross-backs, this one does not.

I call it my "any questions?" chart which I always pull up the moment I start to doubt we are heading down in the longer term.

[99er]

VIX

A possible Wolfe Wave targeting 26.50 (purple) just snapped back to the mid-channel of a possible rising trend (gold). Longer-term WWs (green and blue) hint that the direction remains up.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/vix_22.html

[Al_Dente]

Long term Gold/Silver Ratio update. The pink line at 52 is the 36 year average of the ratio (according to the Seeking Alpha research I posted last month, but I did not independently verify). My read on the ratio (LONG TERM ONLY) is: sell silver / buy gold. Am interested in alternative “reads” from boarders.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD: ... =244593157

PS: Thank you to boarders BullBear52x, cougar, dcurban, 99er and others, for short silver posts and other metal posts the last few days. And thanks to King Cobra for dgp/dzz in his “mechanical portfolio.” Cobra noted that dgp was stopped out yest at loss, and short-term dzz is still a hold.

[jdiesel77]

112211 spx lt.JPG

Here is the chart going back 20 years.

Previous times (since Jan 1900) 50/200 SMA Monthly death cross happened were
Nov 1917
Feb 1920
May 1934
March 1940

March 1940 spx 12.18. 2 months later in May , opened 12.03 closed 9.27 roughly 25% loss
May 1934 opened 10.46...closed july at 8.68...approx 17%

I dont have before that

[Harapa]

112211 spx lt.JPG

Here is the chart going back 20 years.

Previous times (since Jan 1900) 50/200 SMA Monthly death cross happened were
Nov 1917
Feb 1920
May 1934
March 1940

Then what happened and how long did it take???

1917- Market gained 40% in the sell mode
1920- Market gained 37% in the sell mode
1934- Market gained 19% in the sell mode
1940- Market gained 53% in the sell mode
So much for a death cross!

[KENA]

Here is your uber death cross... unlike that monthly chart which has false crossovers with quick cross-backs, this one does not.

I call it my "any questions?" chart which I always pull up the moment I start to doubt we are heading down in the longer term.

Nice chart..Now lets see..I'm not doing much today so far..Reading most of the posts.

[Cobra]

nothing to say, stuck in a range. wait until OR breakout. It's a range day. I'm working on the new server, so might not be very focused today.

[dcurban1]

Long term Gold/Silver Ratio update. The pink line at 52 is the 36 year average of the ratio (according to the Seeking Alpha research I posted last month, but I did not independently verify). My read on the ratio (LONG TERM ONLY) is: sell silver / buy gold. Am interested in alternative “reads” from boarders.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD: ... =244593157

PS: Thank you to boarders BullBear52x, cougar, dcurban, 99er and others, for short silver posts and other metal posts the last few days. And thanks to King Cobra for dgp/dzz in his “mechanical portfolio.” Cobra noted that dgp was stopped out yest at loss, and short-term dzz is still a hold.

Who are you on Seeking Alpha so I can follow you?

[99er]

SPX

Down channel still intact.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx_630.html

[fehro]

watch down trendlines .... could pop out of the channel with a big bar

[KENA]

nothing to say, stuck in a range. wait until OR breakout. It's a range day. I'm working on the new server, so might not be very focused today.

Important for you to stay focused..Ha

[cougar]

2 SPY worrisome minor regression channels with the same slope…

[BullTart]

Here is your uber death cross... unlike that monthly chart which has false crossovers with quick cross-backs, this one does not.

I call it my "any questions?" chart which I always pull up the moment I start to doubt we are heading down in the longer term.

Nice chart..Now lets see..I'm not doing much today so far..Reading most of the posts.

Study it.. look at how it recently attempted to cross-back but failed.

Never doubted that it would fail, even with the mega rally we just had.

The only times it has crossed over, then crossed-back was when the angle of cross was very low, as in horizontal low.. like back in 1993 et al.

Now that it has failed the cross-back as anticipated, you know where we are headed.

As my longer term chart says, "Any questions?"

[L_T]

Long term Gold/Silver Ratio update. The pink line at 52 is the 36 year average of the ratio (according to the Seeking Alpha research I posted last month, but I did not independently verify). My read on the ratio (LONG TERM ONLY) is: sell silver / buy gold. Am interested in alternative “reads” from boarders.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD: ... =244593157

PS: Thank you to boarders BullBear52x, cougar, dcurban, 99er and others, for short silver posts and other metal posts the last few days. And thanks to King Cobra for dgp/dzz in his “mechanical portfolio.” Cobra noted that dgp was stopped out yest at loss, and short-term dzz is still a hold.

Who are you on Seeking Alpha so I can follow you?

I second that.

[nonabear]

112211 spx lt.JPG

Here is the chart going back 20 years.

Previous times (since Jan 1900) 50/200 SMA Monthly death cross happened were
Nov 1917
Feb 1920
May 1934
March 1940

Then what happened and how long did it take???

1917- Market gained 40% in the sell mode
1920- Market gained 37% in the sell mode
1934- Market gained 19% in the sell mode
1940- Market gained 53% in the sell mode
So much for a death cross!

That is because that length of moving averages (50 and 200 period) for a monthly chart are too long. You already missed the 90% move down from the high in 1929 to the low in 1932...so weekly is much better to use.