12/16/2011 Intraday Watering

[stucap]

Why is everyone expecting another big move. You got the big move this morning. The bulls dropped the ball. Now everyone is expecting the market to tank even more in the next 2 hours! Its triple witching folks you are going to see some boring tape until end of the day. Start your weekend early! I am.

Peace out!

Bulls dropped the ball this morning. Bears are in the midst of dropping the ball right now unless they wake up. The lack of action when action is needed even during opex is what results in big swings the other way......

[heavenskrow]

VXX

[jimme]

Update

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx_6480.html

Hungry bears gonna try again.

Quite soon. Full blown bull flag on the /DX on 5 min ready to pop. It is quite yawny at the moment. My target is now SPY 1202.

[BullBear52x]

PAGING BARON, more on “unavailable to borrow”
Too crowded trade often (?) indicates impending turn, and is often hard to estimate as “crowded” can get much more crowded before turn.
One of the only PROOF/EVIDENCES I know of for “crowded” is “unavailable to borrow” short.
Think about it. Your broker is refusing a commissionable trade from you. They don’t do that lightly, not unless they have no other choice (no shares available to execute your trade).
IMHO That’s pure evidence that EVERYONE (?) is on the same side of that trade (at least according to your broker’s availability, varies substantially). hhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Also note volume size of what they refused (eg smaller volume ETFs ?? compared to larger volume SSO ?? where there were still shares available to lend/borrow??)
PS: we’re not talking GORILLA VOLUME spy here folks, spy always/almost always at top of “highest short interest” NYSE list, and spy “always” has shares to borrow…iIf spy ever “locked-up”, oy…..
Please folks: other explanations are welcomed from board.

PS Baron I don’t know what this means: “”My broker and I are working on a retirement plan. Unfortunately, it's his!””
(still with electrician… ballast thingie… am still behind the curve here on board, sorry)

That was a joke. as far as shares availability to borrow I can only tell that it's crowded trade but that would not change my mind of the direction of the market, I trust my chart more and more, no news no phone. hey if the electrician takes more than half an hour to change the ballast, you got the wrong one, call plumber.

[99er]

Bored?

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/12/16/t ... the-skies/

Ladyboy flight attendants.

"Triple Witching Hour."

[BullBear52x]

UUP is C&H longer term, 26ish is not a tupid target.

[Al_Dente]

Here is another look, Fade the TICK, no LOD is allowed, NO NO NO

PAGING BARON von TICK. Please read/see this after the close
What we need is a BETTER tick “guideline” that will ignore corrections/flags and just stay above/below zero with the trend, so we’re not endlessly knocking our heads against every little flag. (yours posted here is perfect today but i can't see it multiple days...).
My current tick “guideline” setting is 50/2.5. Your setting is 89/2.5. Both are flawed…am testing new settings.

One possibility (early testing): the use of ema envelopes as “ribbon” guidelines. Settings are visible here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =251111100

Eg: these ribbons kept us long all 9 dec…..short all 12 dec…..then after the fake spike up, short thru the rest of 13 dec to midday 14 dec ….then see choppy yesterday when the ribbons huged the centerline “telling” us we’re just in a directionless choppy day. (Today it said stay short after 11:30ET ish).
So far it’s superior to both our current tick-guidelines. I’ll have to monitor it for a while. Also they may be giving an important message (?) when the ribbons “open up” (trend-ish?) compared to when they compress into a single line (small range/chop?). But unfortunately they still show gap-open spikes (and “flash” moves?) as “trend-ish” changes ….mmmmmm. Please suggest better settings if u find them.
I’m gone for couple days so I won’t post charts on weekend board, but I’ll watch via remote.
PS: Anyone else tinkering with ways to get better signals out of tick (or any internals) PLEASE CONTRIBUTE.

[StrikePrice]

An idle Friday afternoon daydream of an evil plan...
I noticed in a chart Bullbear52 posted a few minutes ago that a modest rally in the days ahead could set up an inverse head and shoulders on the SPY. White Chart.
If such a thing unfolded, it would come near the apex of a mega symetrical triangle. Blue chart.
The mega triangle suggests a potential big move coming our way.
If an inverse H&S forms and completes at the end of a symetrical triangle, it argues a big bull move.
However, this is an evil plan.
So, such an IH&S pattern if it occured would fail trapping and confusing folks as the triangle ultimately resolves down.

THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION OR FORECAST. JUST PLAYING AROUND WITH CHART POSSIBILITIES. Mr. Market could decide to just continue breaking down next week...

All looks too good to be true. What is that? A target of 138?

[michelangelo]

Give me new low of the day, Russell.

[99er]

Bored?

Fifty Facts

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/50-econom ... zy-believe

[jarbo456]

well....anyone holding long or short over the weekend?

[michelangelo]

well....anyone holding long or short over the weekend?

Unless drastic move last 1.5 I'm holding short.

[Cobra]

OK, rebound before hitting the double top target. I'm not sure if the market wants to drop anymore, judging by AUDJPY and XIU.To, after all it's OE day.

[Nomorework]

Disappointed in bears... Lunch time

[stucap]

OK, rebound before hitting the double top target. I'm not sure if the market wants to drop anymore, judging by AUDJPY and XIU.To, after all it's OE day.

if it doesn't drop then it must go up, no? only at 3pm though, that's the rule right? money's free if you're long at three?

[mac769]

Just look at the "ownership" of the US stock market, and you can tell why most of the participants are wrong most of the time

34% housholds, which makes you think this is an easy manipulated market by leveraged HFT traders, just look at todays price action, ridiculous

so it is REALLY a better idea to follow forex or bond charts to get a clue about what might happen in the future

Understand your point, but I don't understand your logic at all, based on the chart you provided. In fact, the chart if anything disproves your point I would think; HFT's would best likely associated with hedge funds/investment banks/mutual/pension funds, which represent fairly small interest block - relative to retail - on your chart. Go figure.

If you know what LEVERAGE the HFT and Hedge Funds have (like MF Global did some time ago), then you will easily understand how a minority (Hedge Funds 3% but leveraged 20 times or more) can really EASY manipulate the 34% "Household" Owners....

Just my thought...

[BullBear52x]

Here is another look, Fade the TICK, no LOD is allowed, NO NO NO

PAGING BARON von TICK. Please read/see this after the close
What we need is a BETTER tick “guideline” that will ignore corrections/flags and just stay above/below zero with the trend, so we’re not endlessly knocking our heads against every little flag. (yours posted here is perfect today but i can't see it multiple days...).
My current tick “guideline” setting is 50/2.5. Your setting is 89/2.5. Both are flawed…am testing new settings.

One possibility (early testing): the use of ema envelopes as “ribbon” guidelines. Settings are visible here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =251111100

Eg: these ribbons kept us long all 9 dec…..short all 12 dec…..then after the fake spike up, short thru the rest of 13 dec to midday 14 dec ….then see choppy yesterday when the ribbons huged the centerline “telling” us we’re just in a directionless choppy day. (Today it said stay short after 11:30ET ish).
So far it’s superior to both our current tick-guidelines. I’ll have to monitor it for a while. Also they may be giving an important message (?) when the ribbons “open up” (trend-ish?) compared to when they compress into a single line (small range/chop?). But unfortunately they still show gap-open spikes (and “flash” moves?) as “trend-ish” changes ….mmmmmm. Please suggest better settings if u find them.
I’m gone for couple days so I won’t post charts on weekend board, but I’ll watch via remote.
PS: Anyone else tinkering with ways to get better signals out of tick (or any internals) PLEASE CONTRIBUTE.

you know there is no holly grail in chart setting right? there is none...why beat the dead horse. there's limitation to what the TA can do.

[BullBear52x]

well....anyone holding long or short over the weekend?

I'll let you know 15min. before the close.

[Cobra]

OK, rebound before hitting the double top target. I'm not sure if the market wants to drop anymore, judging by AUDJPY and XIU.To, after all it's OE day.

if it doesn't drop then it must go up, no? only at 3pm though, that's the rule right? money's free if you're long at three?

failed on the 2nd try on the low, so bears must be careful now.

[ddd]

Had good DT long since yesterday, reversed to short from 11:00am, and now flat. Will not hold DT positions over the weekend, unless something drastically happened.