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No, sorry. I like to day trade here, for swing trades/intermediate term “instruments”, I watch Cobra’s “Trading Signals” and “Portfolio Update” over on his main subscription page.NDD wrote:Thanks Al Dente
Any suggestion too which instrument one should use if one is aiming to keep a positions in the long term account (5-10 years) and/or reasons to why not start investing asap.
Happy New Year, 99er!99er wrote:Updates
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/es.html
NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/nq.html
YM http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/ym.html
And a cartoon: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/ ... -year.html
Happy New Year!
I would have to say SPX lead from pricing level or fib measurement.NDD wrote:Anyone here paying attention to DAX, who could give me some input on whether it leads or lags spx.. Quite a huge gain today which may imply a gap up tomorrow on the spx?
Thanks for all your insightful comments, may 2012 be a prosperous year for all!
Yes…why not?! A 138 % extension is perfectly compatible with the accelerated downtrend that we witnessed .BullBear52x wrote:I don't trade GLD but will 130 be of interest to anyone? that's what it looks to be at the moment. long term out look is sure shaky on GLD
...or to Romney???BullBear52x wrote:Thanks Cougar and happy new year to you too.
well, all roads lead to Roam
LOL I meant to say ROME, fixed!cougar wrote:...or to Romney???BullBear52x wrote:Thanks Cougar and happy new year to you too.
well, all roads lead to Roam
LOL!
Got that!BullBear52x wrote:LOL I meant to say ROME, fixed!cougar wrote:...or to Romney???BullBear52x wrote:Thanks Cougar and happy new year to you too.
well, all roads lead to Roam
LOL!
Glad that you mentioned DBV. I am watching it very carefully right now!BullBear52x wrote:I would use DBV over Eur/usd. if you want to see the liquidity side of thing.tdo722 wrote:1. This is what I'm watching like a hawk. eur/usd bounced at horizontal support 1.28732 hence we got the 1-day MAD on 12/29/2011
2. RSI Daily chart positive divergence. Why this is huge? I already checked and the last time there's a RSI positive divergence on the daily chart is when Moses received the 10 commandments from God (well, that's how long it has been, lol)
3. Once eur/usd breaks the down channel, we will see SPX rallies like there's no tomorrow
4. Commercial traders has heavily long EURO while non-commercial traders are heavily short EURO. I received this tip from someone on Daneric site to confirm my belief on the eur/usd about to rally hard (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm)
I am holding a few spy puts over the holiday weekend. Need comments and suggestions from y'all. Happy New Year everyone!
Hey Al!Al_Dente wrote:HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL COBRA PEOPLE
Al Dente’s New Year’s Market Resolutions 2012
1) Don’t fight price or volume
2) Tweak or banish indicators that are liars. Identify truthful indicators and stay with them
3) Trust canaries and divergences that have signaled turns in the past, but give them time to work out
4) Don’t underestimate the power of the bulls aka short-covering bears (borrowed from Cobra)
5) Don’t underestimate the power of China
6) During a market rally, avoid zerohedge. During a market decline, okay to check zerohedge
7) Put all kool-aid posters who lack verifiable chart evidence or lack a credible link on IGNOR list
8) Trust the pragmatic wisdom of Cobra
9) This time is not different
Yes, exactly! Hmm...BullBear52x wrote:Paging Cougar, RE: DBV, I see a little conflict here also, take a look at my simple swing 101. I got sell on SPY but not on DBV, DBV still on its last buy.Hmmmmm...
Good read on Friday, here is my side of the story, top red line is when I will fold. if I got trap here I considered it a fair game Da boyz will do that it's their jobs. last post got to go see you all tomorrow. Thanks everyone for a good discussion.cougar wrote:Yes, exactly! Hmm...BullBear52x wrote:Paging Cougar, RE: DBV, I see a little conflict here also, take a look at my simple swing 101. I got sell on SPY but not on DBV, DBV still on its last buy.Hmmmmm...
BTW, I have something about the Friday trades for you!
Relax and enjoy...
The 2 last hours of trading, on Friday, were quite remarkable.
End of the YEAR!
Many people, including myself, were expecting a significant RAMPO of most indices during the last 60-30 min and into close - possibly, extended 15 min until the options market was also supposed to close. We were thinking that this would happen in the context of a VIX drop, so that the puts that we planed to buy would have been cheap…
Well…Da Boyz did exactly the opposite (as obvious on the chart below) with “moves” in the following sequence:
1. VIX UP, while SPY and QQQ down [at 12:30*]…so far, it makes sense…but then, slowly…
2. ...indices go steadily UP but the VIX stays also UP, so that the puts are still expensive…And we wait…
3. A signal comes in the OPPOSITE direction of what we expected = VIX UP (green square) and indices down, breaking the supportive trend-line (red arrows). So, what to do?…Got to be nimble, because there isn’t much time left…So, I bought 1/3 of the planned positions of puts for both QQQ and SPY…still waiting for the RAMPO to happen on close…But, there were few people who bought at that time ..which made me kind of uncomfortable…
4. The RAMPO never happened! BIG DROP of the indices! At that point, the “hedgies” started to buy…3k, 5k 10k put contracts - all at the ask! They were chasing them like crazy! I tried to buy more puts also, placing orders slightly under the ask…and nothing got filled…Nobody was selling puts! Thus, I ended up with only 1/3 of the planned positions…
…Now, 3 days later, looking again at my trading charts, I am little more suspicious…Da Boyz created a “panic buying “ of puts and of 3x short ETF-s! Why? The “perma-contrarian” in me answers : “Because the whole kabuki was only a trap and the next move will be a short covering rally …” If true, I was lucky not have those orders filled!
===================
Note: *on the chart below, time is MST…where the indices market closes at 14:00 while the VIX and options at 14:15.
HI JARBO: Recall last week I asked you how/why eur/usd goes down as European stock ETFs go up then answered myself with “do your own homework.”jarbo456 wrote:Happy New Year Everyone!...Doc Al, I have a copy of Margin Call on my computer - 3gig's. I'm going to try and compress it into a .rar file and then maybe use the free version of "Drop Box". If I can get it under 2 gig's, it's all yours. Otherwise, if you can find another way of getting it from me to you, then I'll be happy to oblige....Good looking charts up here, and as it's come to be expected, a slightly bearish (cautious) tone. My only resolution for 2012 is for it to be MUCH better than 2011 for me as a trader....Was a rough year, and I'm very happy that it's over. Congrats to those that made tons of money with the volatility, and goodluck and better trading to those who, like me, had a harder time.