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Thanks Ocasionnal Observer, I look at SPXA50 daily also, well, turning down on Friday and a top slope is getting lower low clearly.ocassional observer wrote:the markets are at a critical point as can be seen at a chart of $spxa200R &spxa50R:the 200w sma was the dividing line between long lasting rallies and declines since the march bottom. a breakout will also require a sustainable breakout above the october top. however, there are plenty of divergences (NYMO, SPXA50R, BPSPX, etc.) now compared to the october top so the very first attempt should fail. we'll need to see how the decline and the following rally evolve to assess market strength. $vix weekly (cobra's chart) seems like a double bottom with positive divergence so i expect some rebound sometime next week.
fundamentally europe's recession is continuing , china's real estate slump is starting and growth in the us is weak. profit margins have peaked and profits will peak yoy sometime during the year. gs has year end target of 1250 based on flat earnings and some multiple compression. morgan stanley calls for 1167. i guess my view is in between those, with downside risks from financial turmoil in europe and Iran's situation. all in all i think we're much closer to the top in 2012 than the bottom, all imho.
p.s.
the 5 first trading days indicator is much weaker if the gain was less than 1.5%, including some respectable slumps,so monday is important:
http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/24174
my guess is that the big guys will want it to be positive to lure the crowds to the slaughter house, as evident by the recent highs of the oex p/c ratio.
You too 99er have a good weekend, just so you know, I never skip to look at your charts.99er wrote:Updates
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/spx_07.html
RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/rut_07.html
TNX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/tnx_07.html
VIX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/vix_07.html
I think the top is already in.
Enjoy the weekend.