01/18/2012 Intraday Watering

[taggard]

as for your kids--the hard part is to teach them to benefit from these sorts of changes--AT THE SAME TIME not lose their sanity soul whatever to it.

they need to look where others don't--the good news is that most people are looking in the same place. best of luck to you and your kids

One had to move 900 miles after graduation when a job fell through or sit at home unemployed. I can't even express the hurt my wife and I feel over that. I hold a particular contempt for both administrations who said their wealthy doners can't take haircuts, so small businesses will. And in "The Quiet Coup", Simon Johnson warned them that they would control the economy if they continued on their path. Now they really are to big to fail. Everyone, for the first time since the WW II years, is waiting for another shoe to drop. I don't think any rationale individual thinks we are going back to the standard of living of 3-4 years ago in our lifetime.

As to your points, all valid. If a Black Swan hits the derivative mkt could close banks down overnight.

Thanks

SWalsh, I believe in cycles, so if you look at the market, you can see that there is approx 18 year cycles. We are in a waning cycle starting from around 2000, we are consolidating the previous 18 years of growth. The market cannot go up forever, just like a stock, it has to pause and consolidate. There are negative planetary action into 2015, not saying it will happen, but we could get another recession in 2014-2015, and then the markets are most likely off to the races...

We may or may not get another correction that would take the markets down 50% from the highs, but the markets are still going a lot higher into the future....

seems likely as history shows--would just add one point re market up and standard of living. if you look back to the last two major bear markets and factor inflation during the bad period and after recovery--the recovery is far after the end to the bear in terms of buying power. so the frustrating part of the situation for Swalsh's kids is that they are going to be running at least 5 and maybe 15 years after the end on the charts for inflation to be out of the break even or less.

technology helps--more stuff made cheaper using less raw materials or better raw materials. but in terms of stuff that i think quality of life is--living in the country--having free time esp to consider what is going on and stuff of this sort--this has been in declines even before the bear. so you get amazing internet better health care--fewer trees and less free time to enjoy it. in short day to day stress is up for a whole lot of people and this is partly a function of inflation etc.

not trying to be depressing--but it's delicate for younger people getting going here.

[TraderGirl]

Let's see what happens when and if we get to that resistance line from the May 2nd high, sitting at 1312-1313 on my chart. Looks like it has been a magnet for this rally. Since we will be hitting it for the very first time, I am supposing we retract down from it, as we have done every time we have hit new resistance. Just my humble opinion....FWIW

[SWalsh]

Even the 5 min charts have 5 divergences on RSI and MACD.

I'm even beginning to wonder if they can trade the mkt in such a way as to make those charts develop divergences to put traders into the market on the other side. I don't think it's just me that has noticed the use of these indicators in the last year has lengthened in time frame to the only ones being somewhat reliable are 60 min+ and only on the long side.

[Cobra]

Cobra, just to confirm, today is not a MAD is it? I'm already very scared....

not MAD.

why scared?

[Denali92]

Well, the MLK holiday disappointed in terms of producing a turn…. but as I noted (I think…) the turns for MLK when it occurs during opex week are never big and it failed to materialize in 2001 and 2006….

BUT OPEX week is here – I should have saved my opex week rules so I could paste them in here, but I did not…. (one of these days I will smarten up…)

Anyway, the rule of thumb on the short side is when we are HOURLY OB on the Wed, Thurs or Fri of opex week, it is a good short and generally indicates we will get a pullback of at least 25 SPX points, if not more…. (though occasionally less), the last opex periods that we got the signal were Oct 2011 (only good for a little, but we were coming out of the Oct low), Sept – took a while, but worked REALLY well, May and April of 2011…. (both worked well….)

As always, it is POST opex where we get the BIG turns a la this past December….

We DO NOT have a signal yet, but are close to one – they do NOT always work right away…. but they do work…..

Will let you know when it shows up (if it shows up…)

-D

Ok – we just got at 3:30 the signals – but they are not strong – as they are only MFI (Money Flow) and not RSI, as the hourly RSI is close, but not quite above 75 except for QQQ.

SPY and MDY are just MFI, QQQ is both RSI and MFI (though I must admit I do not track it) while IWM / RUT is not yet hourly OB…

These signals can last for one period or quite a few…. but to me, they indicate a pullback is near….

[Richarab]

Cobra, just to confirm, today is not a MAD is it? I'm already very scared....

not MAD.

why scared?

i'm scared too cobra.

[SWalsh]

S&P 500 Profit Season Has Worst Start in Years: Chart of the Day

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-1 ... e-day.html

I guess the computers operate under "The Cone of Silence"

[brandyjoco]

Umm.. What does MAD mean? Thanks Brandy

[TraderGirl]

as for your kids--the hard part is to teach them to benefit from these sorts of changes--AT THE SAME TIME not lose their sanity soul whatever to it.

they need to look where others don't--the good news is that most people are looking in the same place. best of luck to you and your kids

One had to move 900 miles after graduation when a job fell through or sit at home unemployed. I can't even express the hurt my wife and I feel over that. I hold a particular contempt for both administrations who said their wealthy doners can't take haircuts, so small businesses will. And in "The Quiet Coup", Simon Johnson warned them that they would control the economy if they continued on their path. Now they really are to big to fail. Everyone, for the first time since the WW II years, is waiting for another shoe to drop. I don't think any rationale individual thinks we are going back to the standard of living of 3-4 years ago in our lifetime.

As to your points, all valid. If a Black Swan hits the derivative mkt could close banks down overnight.

Thanks

SWalsh, I believe in cycles, so if you look at the market, you can see that there is approx 18 year cycles. We are in a waning cycle starting from around 2000, we are consolidating the previous 18 years of growth. The market cannot go up forever, just like a stock, it has to pause and consolidate. There are negative planetary action into 2015, not saying it will happen, but we could get another recession in 2014-2015, and then the markets are most likely off to the races...

We may or may not get another correction that would take the markets down 50% from the highs, but the markets are still going a lot higher into the future....

seems likely as history shows--would just add one point re market up and standard of living. if you look back to the last two major bear markets and factor inflation during the bad period and after recovery--the recovery is far after the end to the bear in terms of buying power. so the frustrating part of the situation for Swalsh's kids is that they are going to be running at least 5 and maybe 15 years after the end on the charts for inflation to be out of the break even or less.

technology helps--more stuff made cheaper using less raw materials or better raw materials. but in terms of stuff that i think quality of life is--living in the country--having free time esp to consider what is going on and stuff of this sort--this has been in declines even before the bear. so you get amazing internet better health care--fewer trees and less free time to enjoy it. in short day to day stress is up for a whole lot of people and this is partly a function of inflation etc.

not trying to be depressing--but it's delicate for younger people getting going here.

I think it definitely will be tough for a while, but it's also an exciting time in that technology and green technology will probably be leaders in the future and getting in while it is just beginning to grow gives great possibilities. Think back to 90's when jobs were scarce, if you had just gotten in early to Google or Apple...) I think we are getting close to that same place, great possibilities! It is hard to believe, but in the waxing state (the 18 year growth period) of the markets the Dow has increased by 10 times, we are at the foot of that growth period where the Dow could go to 40,000 or more...who knows. I bet when the Dow was at 1,000, nobody thought it would go to 14,000.... I am just saying you have to pick your industry where you can see a great potential of growth, think about what will be important in the next 20 years....

[Al_Dente]

volume and tick, 1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =250028427


Black Swan caveat: zerohedge.com (my fav site) has called for black swan every single day since they opened in Jan 2009, most poignant were their black swan calls between March 9, 2009 and April, 2011.
So I had to “revise” my rules a little bit to new rules: “During a market rally, avoid zerohedge. During a market decline, okay to check zerohedge”
(just my rules only, everyone has their own rules, IMHO only)

[THAT GUY]

Cobra, just to confirm, today is not a MAD is it? I'm already very scared....

not MAD.

why scared?

i'm scared too cobra.

me too :/ ....

[Mr. T]

Umm.. What does MAD mean? Thanks Brandy

Major Accumulation Day

[newbie_77]

seems to me that unless ibm and goog barf (on 19th) we are headed higher ..... leading to AAPL (24th)... looks like only down day i can see in 20th (Friday) and 23rd (monday). then again from 30, 31, 1, 2 and 3rd we are going to see more +ve. its all the IRA and 401k contributors...

[SWalsh]

not trying to be depressing--but it's delicate for younger people getting going here.

Sure is! We know kids with no jobs from good schools and some working part-time in retail.

Alfred Malabre was an editor for the WSJ. In the late 80s he predicted all of this in a book, "Beyond Our Means". He stated that technology would make the world smaller, so to say, and unless your job was in demand you would compete for one at low wages in the coming years. Lester Thurow (MI) wrote the same in "Head-to-Head".

One of my kids graduated from a top 10 Business School in 2009. At the end of 2010 those 400 kids had a 50% unemployment rate where they would have been offered $70-$85K to start in their senior year at a job fair, which was lightly attended by companies. Many good offers were rescinded before graduation. Even kids out of law schools can't find jobs (not that we need more lawyers!)

[proteus46]

Buying April 2012 Calls on VXX - really tempting right now - just being patient

[SB73]

I am scrambling here to see if there is a statisical edge on a black candle followed by a large white candle that closes higher than the top of the prior days black candle. I see about 75% of the time the next day is red.

[Mr. T]

Cobra, just to confirm, today is not a MAD is it? I'm already very scared....

not MAD.

why scared?

i'm scared too cobra.

me too :/ ....

I'd be scared too....... except I'm Mr. T

[waverider]

i'm scared too cobra.[/quote]

LOL. SDS looks good here IMO.

[noob]

Cobra, just to confirm, today is not a MAD is it? I'm already very scared....

not MAD.

why scared?

Shorted and market is super strong

[SB73]

volume and tick, 1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =250028427


Black Swan caveat: zerohedge.com (my fav site) has called for black swan every single day since they opened in Jan 2009, most poignant were their black swan calls between March 9, 2009 and April, 2011.
So I had to “revise” my rules a little bit to new rules: “During a market rally, avoid zerohedge. During a market decline, okay to check zerohedge”
(just my rules only, everyone has their own rules, IMHO only)

Those are the best rules I have read yet. I just took off my short hedge and am naked again. See my black candle followed by a white candle that closes higher than the black tip. Should be red tomorrow. Maybe I should check my HFT computer for clarification.