Weekend Watering - Someone's Gotta Do It

[jarbo456]

Just wanted to start things off. Same chart I posted, post cash close...

The bears' best chance for now might be to complete the H&S top with a right shoulder Monday morning, and then break below the neckline...below 131 is a must. Follow through below the 23% fib level would give the bear cause some legs. For now, the ball is still in the bulls' court. Last 5 minute candle, last 1 hour candle, weekly candle all favor the bears - but I've followed candlestick patterns long enough to know that they have a high rate of failure.

[jarbo456]

On one other note - I'm looking at my setups for the week and the vast majority look like perfect short entries. Am I just too bearish biased (I don't think so, I made a New Year's Resolution to try and find a bull argument in everything I look at...^^), or, as the CS turn chart that Uempel graciously showed us seems to be being proven in the single names I'm watching. (for those that didn't see it, I've enclosed the chart again).

[trendfollower]

Write-up on Elliott wave.

http://goo.gl/7hn7e

[Al_Dente]

Hello Bulls and Bears.

BULL
$TED spread closed at 0.50 Friday. “Below 0.50” is the magic number the bulls have been waiting for.
Provided the TED continues to trickle down, that is a risk-on signal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p ... =248214703


BEAR
Because of the dubious nature of our gov unemployment reports, I periodically glance at RHI, JOBS, $DJUSBE, etc., for a more realistic view of our employment picture. Note the large bear candle Friday on RHI, and the deterioration in its soft indicators.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RHI&p= ... =255405299

The RHI earnings miss was on Thursday 1/26, then this news on Friday…11:53 am ET 01/27/2012 - Reuters
“Shares of …[RHI]… fell as much as 9 percent, a day after the staffing company narrowly missed Wall Street expectations,
hurt by softness in the European markets.…’About half of the company's revenue in Europe comes from permanent placement...
and permanent (placement) revenue is very cyclical... forex volatility also hurt the results..’ said .. an analyst …. “

A long term comparison with SPY shows that sub-sector to be prescient in calling turns (via divergences marked with dotted lines).
And now? Well, they all confirmed the October 2011 low and are slow (compared to SPY) in recovering the highs…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RHI&p= ... =255409597

Here is a peer review: http://screencast.com/t/XqCWbkoyqlcA

[mozart]

Silver, it's rather interesting, could be treated as double bottom, going through resistance channels.
Or on weekly chart, will meet trend line around 37.50, and than, time will tell ?
If second case, than there is another leg up, to trap more people in.
What boggles my mind is why did US announce no rate increase till 2104, such a long period, they could've done in smaller time frames, this just opens up the road for inflation, of course PM would benefit from it, but I don't think that was there intention.

[Al_Dente]

Mozart
In addition to announcing the extension of their no-rate-increase policy from 2013 to “at least 2014”, The FED also set an “inflation goal” at “target 2%” CPI. If they are successful, that would be bearish pm longer term IMHO.
Fed Minutes will be released in 2 ½ weeks, perhaps this will offer us more clarity.

I posted this link Friday. It’s only “analysis” but I read it as bearish pm longer term.
Even more interesting IMHO was the embedded link to the Aurora Report (bottom of article) showing two charts on the 5 stages of change, and the lag between an event and the time when market participants finally “get it.”
I believe it’s worth re-posting: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fe ... atest_news

Thanks for continuing to post your silver charts, I always study them.

[trendfollower]

Stock Market Article: "The Fed, the S&P 500, & Why Gold Is Shining Bright"

http://bit.ly/AajSWk

[mozart]

Al_Dente, I did see that link the other day, thank you.
It's just that I work most of the time M-F, so no time for posting except in the evening, but I do come to this forum on regular basis.
Yes, the FED has so many tools at their disposal to control PM, we all know what happen to Silver when it reached 48, so no doubt that they will use it again if necessary.
Plus every body is digging for metals this days, there is oversupply of Silver on the market, I think miners cost to dig it out is about $5+, so there is a lot's of room for profit.
It's hard to predict prices from one day to another, never mind month from now.
One could easy make case for either bull or bear,I try to look what's in front of my nose, some days are better than other, but right now by looking at SLV chart, can't post it, there is day or two of upside, than pull back, after that, hmm,one day a time,I like the old say "aim small,miss small".

Europe seem to be solving Greece problem, that will stabilize Euro, and push $USD down, at least in short term.
US is coming around, but I don't think that they'lll be what they used to be, I doubt they'll ever rich unemployment of 3.5%, I think it was that low at one point of time.
To many companies moved jobs out.
But overall, the whole market seem to be moving up, for how long who knows, Feb. is generally good for stocks, corrections usually come last day's of Feb., or first week in March.
Silver is probably benefiting form floods in Thailand, now that production of electronic devices is in full swing.
Just another opinion!

[Petsamo]

I speak with a very bright young man who teaches at Univ of Pittsburgh and went to whatever school is 2nd to the London School of Economics for his PhD. He is willing to sit down with any economist and argue with them that it is impossible to valuate the SPX over 500. As someone who was a professional trader I agree with his position that unless there is someone big enough to step in their way (and the big boys are all bailed out and beholding to the purse strings of government) a mkt can be held indefinitely at a far higher value than it is worth.

I like listening to Larry Kudlow and he had a guest who believes the DOW should be at 18,500. Based on current dividends, DOW 18,500 is less radical than S&P < 500.

Yes Europe is a basket case, but I saw a statistic that the US is in worse shape if state and local government debts are added to the US debt. And no one is complaining about US local communities defaulting.

I'm neither a bull nor a bear. I just wanna be on the right side of the market.

[thanos]

I speak with a very bright young man who teaches at Univ of Pittsburgh and went to whatever school is 2nd to the London School of Economics for his PhD. He is willing to sit down with any economist and argue with them that it is impossible to valuate the SPX over 500. As someone who was a professional trader I agree with his position that unless there is someone big enough to step in their way (and the big boys are all bailed out and beholding to the purse strings of government) a mkt can be held indefinitely at a far higher value than it is worth.

I like listening to Larry Kudlow and he had a guest who believes the DOW should be at 18,500. Based on current dividends, DOW 18,500 is less radical than S&P < 500.

Yes Europe is a basket case, but I saw a statistic that the US is in worse shape if state and local government debts are added to the US debt. And no one is complaining about US local communities defaulting.

I'm neither a bull nor a bear. I just wanna be on the right side of the market.

Petsamo - you may not be a bull or bear but the real question is are you a Finn or Russian?

[tiki]

Hi Jarbo-

Care to elaborate a little bit on how to use that chart of Uempel's?

I took a look at it on Friday- it looked intriguing, but I'm not sure how one applies it to recent action..

[usctrojan99]

The market is juiced and trying to short is questionable. You have too many people trying to front run the market.

[waverider]

Thanks for the chart Jarbo, and for shedding light on the $DJUSBE Al, I wasn't aware of that index. It looks like a bear reversal sort of twin bar on the weekly. Did you learn any new dances this weekend?

A few charts here, the Nifty is about to bump strong resistance or possibly break out, /ZB ripping on friday, /DX was down, and it should consolidate around the current price at about 50% retracement.

[ocassional observer]

sometimes a wider perspective proves worthwhile (from cobra's monthly chart):

some tough longterm resistance here for spx will limit the upside without substantial correction first.

[Al_Dente]

WAVY
Funny u should mention it! Taking Ben’s lead, I’m now working on this dance step again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbK0C9AYMd8

The Bernank confirmed that his TWIST program of extending treasury maturities was continuing.
Thus the FED is still selling short term bills/notes and buying long bonds/notes (the result last yr was a 7-10 year average-FED-portfolio maturity,
if I remember correctly). Thus we would expect to see bills down and long bonds/notes up.
Wavy, why is nothing as simple as it should be these days?

Here we do see the 10s at new highs (folks are selling stock/buying bonds), but the 2s are still going up also, meaning real folks are still parking money in short term debt (because we know the FED is selling the short terms) …..might be worth watching… if the rally is to continue, we should see movement out of 2s and into stocks…and the converse is also true…
Munis have gone berserk, as everything at the state/local level is back to hunky dory, and only Jarbo knows why…
(Note green arrows refer to bull spy; red arrows refer to bear spy)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =245064294

Wavy, perhaps u have a better “read” on all that. I do have the NY FED activity link, I just refuse to slog thru FED garbage on a day like today
… I will retire midday and will commence to study cheerleaders…
Best 2 U my friend

PS: do u have a “quickie list” u could post, translating futures abbreviations into English, for newbies, and for dumb folks who don’t even kno what ZB is, many thx…

[BullBear52x]

Everyone on the planet earth who owned stocks recognized we are at major resistance. The question is where are we going from here?
Follow the money, during uncertain time, carry trade play a major role. DBV is my fav., last tow spike down below 24 have been brought right back up last week, see the indicators no high threat to the bulls that I can see here.

short term I can see some positive movement on TLT, so, not a bull friendly here.

131 is still a good floor, no trend change unless this floor got taken out.see MACD neg D not good for bulls either here.

Friday action, bears have been in control the most part, at end of day my short term sell is on.

XLF is consolidating here also, I will watch 14 level for support.

Last chart before heading out for fishing, someone thinking that UNG is bottoming, well looks like it is. good luck to all in the coming week

[ocassional observer]

Everyone on the planet earth who owned stocks recognized we are at major resistance.

well, sentiment surveys show that most of those who owns stocks actually thinks we're going to infinty and beyond.

[Al_Dente]

European bank stocks are again catching up, helped by the eur/usd; U.S. banks pullback to “re-align” with them.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p ... listNum=15

Most of my bank stocks are on sell signals, even the stalwart WFC. Some are oversold already intraday.
(Baron von BB52x: compare $BKX to XLF…. $BKX stinks.)

Does anyone have a handle on the new “SCTR” StockCharts Technical Rankings? Here’s the chart school info:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... ators:sctr

Here is the SCTR in pink, behind raw WFC sticks…throw it behind yr fav bank chart and see what it says…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WFC&p= ... =255503899

I know SCTR is not designed to overlay on a stock/ETF, am just playing/testing/studying it… it’s like a six-in-one indicator
….I think it’s “coincident” rather than leading/lagging…not sure yet…
Stockcharts is now listing best SCTR rankings on their home page.
Can anyone share more in-depth study, or reveal how you are using SCTR?

[trendfollower]

Article: "The Long Term Bull Market E Wave Count"

http://bit.ly/xik7qu

[ocassional observer]

in the past year CSFB had a substantial decline before every significant intermediate top in the market until the july breakdown. interestingly if the market didn't sell hard with the initial decline in CSFB then there was one last leg up before capitulation: