03/17/2012 Weekend Watering

[KeiZai]

Ding-ding welcome to the world of weekend watering(voice of sensation)... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hK4m5fliYv8
Ok no more drinking during the day

[KeiZai]

First chart crude oil, as u can see we have a nice iH&S pattern there...neckline (fibonacci 61.8) was tested 3times aaaand successfully, with the rumors around iran-izrael target 130 is not so unrealistic

[KeiZai]

T-notes, thats why I am long TBT

[KeiZai]

Do you remeber this chart?
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=453&p=61570#p61570


Here is update

[Cobra]

StockCharts members please help prompting my rank in public chart list by vote and follow, thanks. The link is here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[KeiZai]

More later have more stuff 4u

[Cobra]

institutional accumulation and distribution. I don't read this chart bullish, because accumulation doesn't hit new high although SPX did while distribution still is up.

[Harapa]

My long(er) term model for SPY using TRIN data remains in Buy mode. SMA of TRIN (2nd panel) is right above the last resistance/support level. A drop below this line, IMHO, will open the flood gate.

My Small Cap Long-Intermediate term Model remains in Sell mode. Both price and Lending_Environment (LE) based oscillators are in sell mode. As prices didn’t deteriorate much since the last sell (actually shorts based on last signal are in red), price oscillator can quickly turn positive with further improvement in price. Also, note the LE is getting very close to turning positive. When both are positive, it is very rewarding to hold long position for longer duration. Also note that during this time short swings do poorly. (This is a “Trend is your friend” setup).

My shorter term Small Cap model is currently in Buy mode. However, it is expected to give a Sell signal in next few days . This has been a good dog (86% win rate) .

My three models above may make you think that I am confused. But I am not. I use all these in real time. As a consequence at times I am both long and short. Since no model is infallible, by using different models I hope to avoid pitfalls of any one model. I hope this setup will continue to work for me as it has in the past (I know past performance is not a guarantee of future)

Now you must be wondering what I am doing in a day trading forum. Before I try to answer this take a careful look at all three panels for Shorter term small cap model and note the following:
For this model
All 28 prior exit bars were red.
In all cases price made a higher high (then a day earlier) on the day of exit
Prices were soft after the exit. Actually taking a short position on exiting from TNA would have fetched 136% return (79% win rate).

This model predicts a sell off of some kind after the expected signal materializes some time next week.

So now what I am doing here. I am here to improve my timing of execution of trades. This table should illustrate the motive (key NDO, Next day Open after signal, etc.)

PF return.png (1.61 KiB) Viewed 5282 times

Happy trading!

Disclaimer: This is not advice to buy or sell anything. This information is for educational purposes, therefore, should be used for this purpose only.

[trendfollower]

Sorry about that.

[Harapa]

Interesting examples on Momentum Reversal Method for picking stocks:

http://goo.gl/Lj6Bi

More on method here:

http://goo.gl/7hn7e

I have been following this for a while.

The links you provided are nothing but advertisements and offer no information regarding the system.

[Al_Dente]

PAGING COBRA:
Cobra u said yesterday:
””””I guess someone does read my daily portfolio update. I almost give it up because it's too damn hard to do 5 systems at the same time”””””

Please put this in your suggestion box:
If there is a way for you to COMBINE your “Portfolio Update” page with your “Trading Signals” page, it might be easier on you, and would be easier on subscribers (me). There must be a way to combine 5 systems into 4 or even 3 with NO LOSS of essential content.
Streamline: like the way u combined the English with the Chinese translation onto one single page.
And by “essential” I mean ALL your overnight posts are ESSENTIAL to me.

[Just a suggestion from one person who reads all yr stuff every night or pre-market a.m.]

Keep up the GREAT work

[Cobra]

PAGING COBRA:
Cobra u said yesterday:
””””I guess someone does read my daily portfolio update. I almost give it up because it's too damn hard to do 5 systems at the same time”””””

Please put this in your suggestion box:
If there is a way for you to COMBINE your “Portfolio Update” page with your “Trading Signals” page, it might be easier on you, and would be easier on subscribers (me). There must be a way to combine 5 systems into 4 or even 3 with NO LOSS of essential content.
Streamline: like the way u combined the English with the Chinese translation onto one single page.
And by “essential” I mean ALL your overnight posts are ESSENTIAL to me.

[Just a suggestion from one person who reads all yr stuff every night or pre-market a.m.]

Keep up the GREAT work

Thanks for the suggestion. I may eventually combine them but now I need complete the system and test them for awhile before making them final. Anything in Trading Signals must be final.

[Al_Dente]

Here’s the rub:
We’re in such a nosebleed zone that there’s not much supply up here (see “volume by price” in blue bars at left; it shrinks at our current level).
If short-covering continues and more buyers crawl out of the woodwork, the lack of supply could just push prices higher, as buyers stretch to long at any price, so to speak. And the simple laws of supply (little) and demand (we’ll see just how much demand, if any, is still left) could kick in again…
Anything is possible, including the opposite. All bears need is a decent piece of neg news (pick your favorite crisis catalyst: oil, Iran, EU, etc.)
for this scenario to reverse quickly.
If u revise this chart and cut it off at 2007 or 2009 or 2010 etc., you will see the same low (and even lower) volume/supply.
Alternative interpretations are welcomed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlvUepMa31o

[Al_Dente]

And here’s a fresh Ned Davis Research quickie on gasoline and yesterday’s econ numbers
http://screencast.com/t/oKFh0rzeBd
(I like Ned bcuz he’s brief, heavy on data and very light on the kool-aid)

[edit for newbies: “y/y” means year-over-year, or this yr compared 2 last yr]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdZ2JXCC ... re=related

[Harapa]

Here’s the rub:
We’re in such a nosebleed zone that there’s not much supply up here (see “volume by price” in blue bars at left; it shrinks at our current level).
If short-covering continues and more buyers crawl out of the woodwork, the lack of supply could just push prices higher, as buyers stretch to long at any price, so to speak. And the simple laws of supply (little) and demand (we’ll see just how much demand, if any, is still left) could kick in again…
Anything is possible, including the opposite. All bears need is a decent piece of neg news (pick your favorite crisis catalyst: oil, Iran, EU, etc.)
for this scenario to reverse quickly.
If u revise this chart and cut it off at 2007 or 2009 or 2010 etc., you will see the same low (and even lower) volume/supply.
Alternative interpretations are welcomed.

Anemic RSP:SPY ratio indicates that only generals are advancing in this phase of market advance. (IWM:SPY ratio indicates the same). This seems like a classic market top formation; large cap gaining- small cap lagging. A subscription service that I have followed for the past 15 years has an indicator called selling vacuum. This proprietary indicator is a blazing Buy, in line with your assertion that this market is driven by lack of sellers and desperate buyer who are willing to pay anything in fear of being left behind (thus buy the dip seen in the last few months). Only the timing of the ending and not the end is a matter of speculation, in my opinion.

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY ST. PATRICK’S DAY TO ALL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=852gverKRPo

Thanks Harapa, I agree.
Also the Wilshire $WLSH our broadest market index (5000 stocks) and its ratios show “broad-market” weakness.

[mozart]

Silver,in 1980 touched 3 times trend line from all time high, went from 37.50 to about 12.50 in short period of time .
On weekly chart Silver touched same line 3rd time @37.50, will history repeat itself ?
SP ,how far will go ?
Have a great weekend guys !!

[BullBear52x]

I think most of us TA junkies agreed that we are really stretched here but that is not good enough reason to just jump in and short. a die-hard counter trend especially if you use VIX as one of your tool, well that thing shot down all the hope as of last Friday. many have giving up on volatility indexes, not I, I still a strong believer in momentum of fear and greed (VIX, VXN, VXD, RVX, VXO, and VXX.....) I combine them of late and I can see a clearer of how they move. one hour time frame is best. here is what I got.

intrady too, I have been using TICK, TICKQ, TRIN, and VIX ( I drop TNX Dr. Al special) they were good but they lag lots of pennies LOL, so I started to experiment with inverted ratio for now the SPY:VIX RSI(50) turned out a winner, there's more to come as I grow older and one day I'll be mature like most of you great TA guru here. have a good St. Patrick's day all.

[BullBear52x]

One more, how about the Bulls?

Fib support lots of supports, here is Fib support if there's correction

[KeiZai]

Thats my newish stuff

numero uno: very big picture as u can see we entered into sweet red zone right time to buy stocks

2: big picture: favours little bit bulls, but it doesnt mean we cannt fall more then 100p like in 2005 our bear time will probably come in 2014 where my evil plan will come to fruition(more about it later)

3: other ones, we are right AT or a little bit above time resistance (little deviation is normal thing) so the point is we are either going to drop from here or we extend run toward next resistance