05/01/2012 Live Update

[taggard]

you guys should read the stats on the first day of the month returns...May happens to be quite strong in that area.

using the same idea (stocktraders almanac) thur/fri/mon should be down).

[TraderGirl]

TraderGirl ,, you must remember we have a Saturn aspect also no good coming up.

Are you talking about the Mercury opposition to Saturn on the 6th? We should be down into that maybe into the 7th...

[zudec]

you guys should read the stats on the first day of the month returns...May happens to be quite strong in that area.

using the same idea (stocktraders almanac) thur/fri/mon should be down).

perhaps IRA money that was put in before April 17 is being invested by mutual funds today

[CarlosDK]

Tradergirl yes ,, and the Full moon usually a hard time aspect.

Also Uranus Pluto in June.

[TraderGirl]

you guys should read the stats on the first day of the month returns...May happens to be quite strong in that area.

using the same idea (stocktraders almanac) thur/fri/mon should be down).

taggard, you are talking about this thurs, fri, and upcoming monday?? Funny how astro's and stats can go hand in hand...

[Mr. T]

you guys should read the stats on the first day of the month returns...May happens to be quite strong in that area.

using the same idea (stocktraders almanac) thur/fri/mon should be down).

perhaps IRA money that was put in before April 17 is being invested by mutual funds today

I think it's simpler than that. All the retails were getting short - and the TV was saying "Sell in may..... bla bla bla".

Easiest way to make cash is steal it from retails.

Set 'em up, and knock 'em down. Rinse and repeat.

Now if the SPX can get above its high we'll really see some stops go.

[Mr. BachNut]

Long. I had been holding a partial short too but that spike just snapped my stops. Still bracing for somewhipsaw but welcoming the strength.

re mccellan. i use a 10 day moving average of nyse ad line--this tracks Mccellan nicely. the advantage is since it is a moving average i can see the days to be "dropped" ahead of time. The implication right now is 5-4 to 5-11 will drop large positive numbers. this tends (all thing being equal) to take Mccellan down--and that action again all things being equal means a decline.

The time frame is the jobs report and the french run off election (interesting in light of the cobra dax head and shoulders--which i belief will start to play and then fail--amusingly index patterns are often noted by everyone (some see a head and shoulders in rut/iwm) and given the importance of dax the odds are you will see other people noting this. if the patterns turn up noted--often they don't play out--if they are not talked about in the press etc--they often do play out.

a note on entry points this morning--we took off strong broke over the 5 min 20 ema and then pulled back to it--given we were short term oversold and that we had a strong start entering there worked. second on the break over the first spike up was another entry more dangerous but was there.

this is just my experience so naturally discount it--but this talk about the news spits attention during intra day trades. i like the news as much as anyone but it just doesn't help trading during fast moves. i think the key there is a very simple rule set and discipline. you just have to move without a clue--because thinking or understanding is too slow--when up against stuff like short squeezes or hft shifts. i don't know about you--but it's hard to just sit there and know i don't know and yet do something--but that is what works in fast situations.

I confess...I don't have a clue.
I have pretty much given up trying to anticipate news or what the reaction will be.
But I do pay attention roughly to the reaction to news. Lately, bad news hasn't tanked the market much and good news fires it up. Bullish.
However, technicals as of yesterday seemed marginal and vulnerable to flipping calls. Today ought to make a stonger case.
On McClellan, we've got a rising bottoms line from the low, which I like.
If strength persists, I can see the McClellan and perhaps the TRIN signaling over-bought later in the week. So, maybe a turn is on deck, but given evil plans and such, Mr. Market may want to try and top the April 2 high to clean out shorts first.

[taggard]

you guys should read the stats on the first day of the month returns...May happens to be quite strong in that area.

using the same idea (stocktraders almanac) thur/fri/mon should be down).

perhaps IRA money that was put in before April 17 is being invested by mutual funds today

anything is possible but i doubt it--the reason is mutual funds tend to just dump the money in as it comes in. the exception to this is if they are under whatever their preferred cash position is--which is fairly rare as they keep very low cash positions.

likely as not this is a combination of several factors. euro zone closed--usa short term oversold going in (say 60 min sort of thing). 1 or 2 larger guys making some sort of move that happened to be to the upside or result in that (eg could be covering short stock or futs). short covering on the decline yesterday by retail guys. and some buying with the idea the first and second day of may are often up. hft action. and so on.

the problem is what do we do if we figure out what caused the move? does this help factor the next move? or are we doing it just out of interest or for fun? the market is so insanely complex and is made up of literally 1000s of reasons--that being 100% clear on anything is often impossible. that certainly doesn't mean it's wrong to speculate or consider news or reasons why. but it does imply that most of the time any absolute attribution will be at least only part of the answer and at best totally wrong.

[Mr. T]

Long. I had been holding a partial short too but that spike just snapped my stops. Still bracing for somewhipsaw but welcoming the strength.

re mccellan. i use a 10 day moving average of nyse ad line--this tracks Mccellan nicely. the advantage is since it is a moving average i can see the days to be "dropped" ahead of time. The implication right now is 5-4 to 5-11 will drop large positive numbers. this tends (all thing being equal) to take Mccellan down--and that action again all things being equal means a decline.

The time frame is the jobs report and the french run off election (interesting in light of the cobra dax head and shoulders--which i belief will start to play and then fail--amusingly index patterns are often noted by everyone (some see a head and shoulders in rut/iwm) and given the importance of dax the odds are you will see other people noting this. if the patterns turn up noted--often they don't play out--if they are not talked about in the press etc--they often do play out.

a note on entry points this morning--we took off strong broke over the 5 min 20 ema and then pulled back to it--given we were short term oversold and that we had a strong start entering there worked. second on the break over the first spike up was another entry more dangerous but was there.

this is just my experience so naturally discount it--but this talk about the news spits attention during intra day trades. i like the news as much as anyone but it just doesn't help trading during fast moves. i think the key there is a very simple rule set and discipline. you just have to move without a clue--because thinking or understanding is too slow--when up against stuff like short squeezes or hft shifts. i don't know about you--but it's hard to just sit there and know i don't know and yet do something--but that is what works in fast situations.

I confess...I don't have a clue.
I have pretty much given up trying to anticipate news or what the reaction will be.
But I do pay attention roughly to the reaction to news. Lately, bad news hasn't tanked the market much and good news fires it up. Bullish.
However, technicals as of yesterday seemed marginal and vulnerable to flipping calls. Today ought to make a stonger case.
On McClellan, we've got a rising bottoms line from the low, which I like.
If strength persists, I can see the McClellan and perhaps the TRIN signaling over-bought later in the week. So, maybe a turn is on deck, but given evil plans and such, Mr. Market may want to try and top the April 2 high to clean out shorts first.

100% agree, Good call.

[taggard]

you guys should read the stats on the first day of the month returns...May happens to be quite strong in that area.

using the same idea (stocktraders almanac) thur/fri/mon should be down).

taggard, you are talking about this thurs, fri, and upcoming monday?? Funny how astro's and stats can go hand in hand...

yes i am talking about this thur etc. and as far as astro and stats going hand in hand--they should. my perception is there is only one market out there and everyone overlays some conceptual frame work on it. some are very complex frameworks and some very simple. but they all attempt to describe or relate to the same whole they are in reference to.

what's key to me is the individual noting states astros or whatever the model. i think there is a layer of intuitive link that people who really put in the time get to if they can relax enough. they may still use astro or stats to describe the event--but the fact is there is something else going on.

a couple quotes from "yesterday was a lie" movie (rated ok nice try)


The mind is like a surge protector it prevents you from experiencing certain things. You mean non-linear things—reverse causality pre cognition daga vue those sorts of things


There is some talk and the main gal with a poor attitude says to her double “I guess your crystal balls and tarot cards didn’t tell you that huh?

The double gal looks at her very softly and says holding up some sweetner

“check this out—run of the mill sweetener packet right? One gram. And there was something like 5000 grains in here. Take my word for it.

(main girl laughs and backs off showing trust shifted back short term to the double)

Double gal says—how much did each grain weigh?

Main gal—total weight divided by number of grains 0.2 milligrams

Double gal smiling-Really? How many weighed exactly 0.2 milligrams?

Main gal—well it’s their average weight. That is the whole point.

Double gal—no it’s not. The point was to figure out the weight of each grain.

Main gal—really interested now—“keep talking”.

Double gal—Formulas only give approximations averages based on models. Science is incomplete. There is something deeper we cannot define beyond probability.

Main gal—So you are about to tell me that is what mediums do—tap into a deeper level.

Double gal—I’ll let you in on a secret-crystal balls and tarot cards are just devices to shut off the conscious mind. anything where there are patterns within chaos. Lines on a palm reflections in a gemstone.

[TraderGirl]

This is the kind of price action that usually ends with a sharp sell off these days...

[Ed02]

Long. I had been holding a partial short too but that spike just snapped my stops. Still bracing for somewhipsaw but welcoming the strength.

re mccellan. i use a 10 day moving average of nyse ad line--this tracks Mccellan nicely. the advantage is since it is a moving average i can see the days to be "dropped" ahead of time. The implication right now is 5-4 to 5-11 will drop large positive numbers. this tends (all thing being equal) to take Mccellan down--and that action again all things being equal means a decline.

The time frame is the jobs report and the french run off election (interesting in light of the cobra dax head and shoulders--which i belief will start to play and then fail--amusingly index patterns are often noted by everyone (some see a head and shoulders in rut/iwm) and given the importance of dax the odds are you will see other people noting this. if the patterns turn up noted--often they don't play out--if they are not talked about in the press etc--they often do play out.

a note on entry points this morning--we took off strong broke over the 5 min 20 ema and then pulled back to it--given we were short term oversold and that we had a strong start entering there worked. second on the break over the first spike up was another entry more dangerous but was there.

this is just my experience so naturally discount it--but this talk about the news spits attention during intra day trades. i like the news as much as anyone but it just doesn't help trading during fast moves. i think the key there is a very simple rule set and discipline. you just have to move without a clue--because thinking or understanding is too slow--when up against stuff like short squeezes or hft shifts. i don't know about you--but it's hard to just sit there and know i don't know and yet do something--but that is what works in fast situations.

I confess...I don't have a clue.
I have pretty much given up trying to anticipate news or what the reaction will be.
But I do pay attention roughly to the reaction to news. Lately, bad news hasn't tanked the market much and good news fires it up. Bullish.
However, technicals as of yesterday seemed marginal and vulnerable to flipping calls. Today ought to make a stonger case.
On McClellan, we've got a rising bottoms line from the low, which I like.
If strength persists, I can see the McClellan and perhaps the TRIN signaling over-bought later in the week. So, maybe a turn is on deck, but given evil plans and such, Mr. Market may want to try and top the April 2 high to clean out shorts first.

Well said. Dow new high already ...

[Cobra]

yes that is what I meant . plus is not getting too low on the big picture?

SPX VIX divergence need time to work out, so too early to say something now.

[Cobra]

volume surged, not sure what it means, wait. very bullish so far today.

[MrMiyagi]

P-bar SPY, 139.89$ @ 11:47am.

[CarlosDK]

Dow Jones 13.333 (Top?)

Bottomed 666....

[CarlosDK]

Or not

[victorm]

s-t... closed TNA at 61.54

[MrMiyagi]

s-t... closed TNA at 61.54

You did better than I...

[TraderGirl]

P-bar SPY, 139.89$ @ 11:47am.

How well have the downside p-bars been working?