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06/22/2012 Live Update
06/22/2012 Live Update
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Gap up within yesterday's range, so the gap might be filled.
The Global ES looks simple, it's a Bear Flag, so chances are it'd continue down sometimes later.
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Gap up within yesterday's range, so the gap might be filled.
The Global ES looks simple, it's a Bear Flag, so chances are it'd continue down sometimes later.
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Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
Cobra,
Is there a good rule of thumb for a stop loss when trading a bear flag? Or is it best to trade the break (which appears to be a break of yesterday's low)?
Is there a good rule of thumb for a stop loss when trading a bear flag? Or is it best to trade the break (which appears to be a break of yesterday's low)?
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
Traders getting tweaked by the action (or more likely their actions) may want to consider this gem—the quote is from the intro of “hedge fund market wizards” which is a batch of interviews by jack schwager (who did the other wizards books).
Lara Legan “do you feel the adrenaline at all”?
Alex Hnnold “there is no adrenaline rush. . . if I get the rush it means that something has gone horribly wrong. . .the whole thing should be pretty slow and controlled.
(excerpt from 60 min interview with alex honnold acknowledge to be the best free-soloing climber in the world (free-soloing means no ropes no pro (all go)—the video below is him nailing northwest face of half dome in 3 hours (first assent was 5 days)—the video below is a very short version and you can skip in 1.35 or so if you like—but the guy is pretty funny to listen to in the first part.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICBrXUuwvgg
Trading is often seen as intense high pressure etc etc—but it doesn’t have to play that way. The adrenal rush is tricky dangerous and addictive. on one hand it’s fun—on the other it really messes up trading. the #1 problem is the narrowing of focus. In trading it’s critical to be attentive to the action—yet not too sucked in or you lose flexibility and “fluid” thought and perception. So narrowing focus on price action/holds is one thing—unfortunately narrowing focus on outcomes/mental constructs is another.
My favorite all time trade was one I put on with 100% of capital in front month out of the money calls--over 1 day. it was the first rain of the fall on the northern calif coast and I was in a cabin with a thin roof so you could hear the rain—with the sliding glass door open so you could feel the storm hit. I put the trade on and then went back to bed (I had worked 12-14 hours a day for about 3 months non-stop)—a cat I knew at the time went to sleep on top of the crts I woke up every hour or so and looked over at the single chart and got out of the trade at the end of the day up roughly 100%.
That was a really fine day. and I try to remember that as much as possible—esp when I get uptight or very nervous. Or worse yet—start “working hard” or being “smart” etc etc. (I might just as well toss the money in a fireplace and burn it—and the quality of my life with it—for me thinking about trend turns 50% gains into 10% more than the inverse) Let it tell you—and keep it hyper simple—keep an eye on it—but relax. IT'S NOT ABOUT THE MONEY.
It’s really tricky to talk about this internal stuff since many people think it’s bs air head stuff—or somehow not “real” look at the number of posts here on exact targets (sigh) indicators/ systems that work or don’t work/tirads re this or that (like this one for example). As compared to posts on flow/how the action feels/personal quality of trade/life issues or position size relative to inner and outer conditions etc. There is a sense that trading is “doing something” and “making a huge effort” or is “hard” by many people. It often has this lame 80s action movie feel to it. (Arnold vs early 70s Bruce thinking)
Watch the video and look how loose and relaxed this climber guy is. He is doing something that is far harder than us buying some emini futures/options with a fraction of total capital. That guy is totally committed. He is just doing something not “managing it”. only one minor freeze up--no anger depression grinding statements every 5 seconds as to total time involved looking at indicators for holds etc.
After you have a basic sense of the rules in whatever you are up to—the next step is to relax and get out of your own way. Your mind cannot think as fast as your brain (of which you are largely unconscious) can process—and if you ease off on the “knowing what you are doing” or “being in control” “working hard” you can slowly tap into this skill.
That is a relaxed attentive mind that has a general simple rule set—IF LEFT ALONE-WILL DEFAULT TO THE RULE SET AND JUST DO WHAT IT IS SUPPOSED TO. Without all the noise excitement thinking etc. the disturbances--actually reduce the ability to stick to what works--while giving the illusion of helping.
That defaulting to “what it is supposed to do” when i get it –feels like a rock falling though water. It naturally seeks the lowest level it can get to at the speed allowed by the fluid. It is not something I “find though work”—it’s something “given” to me or “shown” to me. it jumps out of the screen and grabs me by the neck and shakes me around on a good day. there is no effort in it other than showing up and paying attention—in a totally open way—as opposed to in “a calculating way”. obviously the part about 10 years of work is relevant—but my point is I could have done it in 1 with the correct mental approach early on—instead did the 1000 monkeys typing for 1000 years to knock out Shakespeare thing.
Just a suggestion--but the next time you find yourself thrashing on a trade or trying to find one—instantly find a way to relax 100% and let whatever your trading idea is “come back”. The hard part is to just instantly relax (almost/not quite-give up)—knowing 100%--that whatever you use to trade-- will come back to you faster this way. So “that underlying thing i use— just got separated from me due to inattention on my part”—or “don’t peel or you will keel”). So it’s there all the time but am i?
Next look at the degree of chill you can hit at any one time—it’s always possible to be more relaxed yet attentive. (more is better) You want to think mega chill—as in “yo I cannot pick up my coffee without it icing over” kind of chill so way lots.
Not all knowledge is power only useful knowledge is power—in a trend fully grasping the idea of the trend is more powerful than any other item or group of items one can consider—yet 90% of the time people are discussing the quality length size strength etc. often that causes people to miss/under commit/bail early etc
It’s like trying to have great sex while reading the Gettysburg Address. At best you are less effective—at worse you mess up both efforts. Even thinking about sex while having sex is pretty lame compared to the act minus the thinking. The same is true with trends—yes you pay attention to what is happening with you/with them/ with the interface between you (or where you overlap)—but it doesn’t have to be thought out or a huge effort. (Was it good for you honey? Yes it was a huge effort. Oh really--well it can be with yourself next time--idiot.)
The object is to shorten the period of being out of that state—by setting up a feedback loop so that--the instant you start to tighten up—you relax into it and dissolve this “distance” between you and “being there”. So even the approaching loss (lessening) of chill triggers a movement deeper into chill. The problem becomes the solution--prior to the event--it is in reference to.
traders are usually falling in and out of the correct mental space—in what seems like a random way to them. by paying attention to the process you can shorten the time between being where you want to be and getting lost or knocked off base etc.
What I refused to do for a long time (sigh)was to accept that--just not doing lots of stuff—would make this loop shorten in time. So move towards “bail everything i can so that not an ounce of mental or emotional energy is wasted”—and shift that conserved juice into relaxing and just paying attention—I don’t know about you but I waste a huge amount of energy on stuff that is for sure not going to matter in 10 years and often not in 10 min. I cut back about 85% and it’s still pathetic—data/info/knowledge/thinking is worse than crank in terms of addictive quality. The fact that is fun covers up the energy suck.
Now the mandatory “practice” quote re this is also from the intro to hedge fund market wizards.
“to do my vacuum cleaner. I built 5127 prototypes. That means I had 5126 failures. But as I went though those failures I made discoveries” james dyson.
Key idea is most traders would relate this to systems and approaches—and ignore the idea that their mind “found” these things. and that the” individual perspective and application” is what gives some idea it’s power. (there are a million people trading ew and only a few make the big money). actually most of the time they chilled and their minds “let something in” and/or allowed them to “see the juice in something already present”. Most of the time the mind actually worked against them by filtering and coloring incoming info—or info inside. Chilling with an open/attentive mind allows one to minimize the narrowing of attention (blocking of all but one element) and open up to stuff far faster.
so just proposing 2563 efforts re ta and 2564 efforts re chill/mental focus is likely to get an even better vacuum cleaner. Maybe the number of efforts required is impacted by how we perceive and the chill factor?
Good luck on your trades today—and every day as far as that goes.
Lara Legan “do you feel the adrenaline at all”?
Alex Hnnold “there is no adrenaline rush. . . if I get the rush it means that something has gone horribly wrong. . .the whole thing should be pretty slow and controlled.
(excerpt from 60 min interview with alex honnold acknowledge to be the best free-soloing climber in the world (free-soloing means no ropes no pro (all go)—the video below is him nailing northwest face of half dome in 3 hours (first assent was 5 days)—the video below is a very short version and you can skip in 1.35 or so if you like—but the guy is pretty funny to listen to in the first part.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICBrXUuwvgg
Trading is often seen as intense high pressure etc etc—but it doesn’t have to play that way. The adrenal rush is tricky dangerous and addictive. on one hand it’s fun—on the other it really messes up trading. the #1 problem is the narrowing of focus. In trading it’s critical to be attentive to the action—yet not too sucked in or you lose flexibility and “fluid” thought and perception. So narrowing focus on price action/holds is one thing—unfortunately narrowing focus on outcomes/mental constructs is another.
My favorite all time trade was one I put on with 100% of capital in front month out of the money calls--over 1 day. it was the first rain of the fall on the northern calif coast and I was in a cabin with a thin roof so you could hear the rain—with the sliding glass door open so you could feel the storm hit. I put the trade on and then went back to bed (I had worked 12-14 hours a day for about 3 months non-stop)—a cat I knew at the time went to sleep on top of the crts I woke up every hour or so and looked over at the single chart and got out of the trade at the end of the day up roughly 100%.
That was a really fine day. and I try to remember that as much as possible—esp when I get uptight or very nervous. Or worse yet—start “working hard” or being “smart” etc etc. (I might just as well toss the money in a fireplace and burn it—and the quality of my life with it—for me thinking about trend turns 50% gains into 10% more than the inverse) Let it tell you—and keep it hyper simple—keep an eye on it—but relax. IT'S NOT ABOUT THE MONEY.
It’s really tricky to talk about this internal stuff since many people think it’s bs air head stuff—or somehow not “real” look at the number of posts here on exact targets (sigh) indicators/ systems that work or don’t work/tirads re this or that (like this one for example). As compared to posts on flow/how the action feels/personal quality of trade/life issues or position size relative to inner and outer conditions etc. There is a sense that trading is “doing something” and “making a huge effort” or is “hard” by many people. It often has this lame 80s action movie feel to it. (Arnold vs early 70s Bruce thinking)
Watch the video and look how loose and relaxed this climber guy is. He is doing something that is far harder than us buying some emini futures/options with a fraction of total capital. That guy is totally committed. He is just doing something not “managing it”. only one minor freeze up--no anger depression grinding statements every 5 seconds as to total time involved looking at indicators for holds etc.
After you have a basic sense of the rules in whatever you are up to—the next step is to relax and get out of your own way. Your mind cannot think as fast as your brain (of which you are largely unconscious) can process—and if you ease off on the “knowing what you are doing” or “being in control” “working hard” you can slowly tap into this skill.
That is a relaxed attentive mind that has a general simple rule set—IF LEFT ALONE-WILL DEFAULT TO THE RULE SET AND JUST DO WHAT IT IS SUPPOSED TO. Without all the noise excitement thinking etc. the disturbances--actually reduce the ability to stick to what works--while giving the illusion of helping.
That defaulting to “what it is supposed to do” when i get it –feels like a rock falling though water. It naturally seeks the lowest level it can get to at the speed allowed by the fluid. It is not something I “find though work”—it’s something “given” to me or “shown” to me. it jumps out of the screen and grabs me by the neck and shakes me around on a good day. there is no effort in it other than showing up and paying attention—in a totally open way—as opposed to in “a calculating way”. obviously the part about 10 years of work is relevant—but my point is I could have done it in 1 with the correct mental approach early on—instead did the 1000 monkeys typing for 1000 years to knock out Shakespeare thing.
Just a suggestion--but the next time you find yourself thrashing on a trade or trying to find one—instantly find a way to relax 100% and let whatever your trading idea is “come back”. The hard part is to just instantly relax (almost/not quite-give up)—knowing 100%--that whatever you use to trade-- will come back to you faster this way. So “that underlying thing i use— just got separated from me due to inattention on my part”—or “don’t peel or you will keel”). So it’s there all the time but am i?
Next look at the degree of chill you can hit at any one time—it’s always possible to be more relaxed yet attentive. (more is better) You want to think mega chill—as in “yo I cannot pick up my coffee without it icing over” kind of chill so way lots.
Not all knowledge is power only useful knowledge is power—in a trend fully grasping the idea of the trend is more powerful than any other item or group of items one can consider—yet 90% of the time people are discussing the quality length size strength etc. often that causes people to miss/under commit/bail early etc
It’s like trying to have great sex while reading the Gettysburg Address. At best you are less effective—at worse you mess up both efforts. Even thinking about sex while having sex is pretty lame compared to the act minus the thinking. The same is true with trends—yes you pay attention to what is happening with you/with them/ with the interface between you (or where you overlap)—but it doesn’t have to be thought out or a huge effort. (Was it good for you honey? Yes it was a huge effort. Oh really--well it can be with yourself next time--idiot.)
The object is to shorten the period of being out of that state—by setting up a feedback loop so that--the instant you start to tighten up—you relax into it and dissolve this “distance” between you and “being there”. So even the approaching loss (lessening) of chill triggers a movement deeper into chill. The problem becomes the solution--prior to the event--it is in reference to.
traders are usually falling in and out of the correct mental space—in what seems like a random way to them. by paying attention to the process you can shorten the time between being where you want to be and getting lost or knocked off base etc.
What I refused to do for a long time (sigh)was to accept that--just not doing lots of stuff—would make this loop shorten in time. So move towards “bail everything i can so that not an ounce of mental or emotional energy is wasted”—and shift that conserved juice into relaxing and just paying attention—I don’t know about you but I waste a huge amount of energy on stuff that is for sure not going to matter in 10 years and often not in 10 min. I cut back about 85% and it’s still pathetic—data/info/knowledge/thinking is worse than crank in terms of addictive quality. The fact that is fun covers up the energy suck.
Now the mandatory “practice” quote re this is also from the intro to hedge fund market wizards.
“to do my vacuum cleaner. I built 5127 prototypes. That means I had 5126 failures. But as I went though those failures I made discoveries” james dyson.
Key idea is most traders would relate this to systems and approaches—and ignore the idea that their mind “found” these things. and that the” individual perspective and application” is what gives some idea it’s power. (there are a million people trading ew and only a few make the big money). actually most of the time they chilled and their minds “let something in” and/or allowed them to “see the juice in something already present”. Most of the time the mind actually worked against them by filtering and coloring incoming info—or info inside. Chilling with an open/attentive mind allows one to minimize the narrowing of attention (blocking of all but one element) and open up to stuff far faster.
so just proposing 2563 efforts re ta and 2564 efforts re chill/mental focus is likely to get an even better vacuum cleaner. Maybe the number of efforts required is impacted by how we perceive and the chill factor?
Good luck on your trades today—and every day as far as that goes.
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
Good morning all
Evidently the Ifo gauge of German business sentiment is “closely watched.”
It declined.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ifo-ga ... atest_news
Evidently the Ifo gauge of German business sentiment is “closely watched.”
It declined.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ifo-ga ... atest_news
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
Trading flag normally is to trade breakout. So in the current case, yes, is to trade break below yesterday's low.stucap wrote:Cobra,
Is there a good rule of thumb for a stop loss when trading a bear flag? Or is it best to trade the break (which appears to be a break of yesterday's low)?
Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
ECB announces easing of collateral rules, hence the rally just now. The details are a bit over my head.
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
I drew this the chart this morning - trying to explain the system to someone. I might as well also post it here. Note that it indicates support at 1320 and 1307/12, resistance at 1335 and 1345. Signal suggests a strong move at the opening, premarket futures point to the upside:
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
How u can spin this as “less gloomy than feared” is beyond me………
AH yesterday, Moody’s (summary):
• Bank of America L-T senior unsecured debt cut to Baa2 from Baa1, outlook negative.
• Barclays L-T issuer rating cut to A3 from A1, outlook negatuve
• Citigroup L-T senior debt cut to Baa2 from A3, outlook negative
• Credit Suisse Group L-T deposit, senior rating cut to A1 from Aa1, outlook stable
• Goldman Sachs Group L-T senior unsecured debt cut to A3 from A1, outlook negative
• HSBC Holdings L-T senior debt cut to Aa3 from Aa2, outlook negative
• JPMorgan Chase L-T senior debt cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook negative
• Morgan Stanley L-T senior unsecured debt cut to Baa1 from A2, outlook negative
• Royal Bank of Canada L-T deposit rating cut to Aa3 from Aa1, outlook stable
• Societe Generale L-T debt, deposit cut to A2 from A1, outlook stable
• UBS L-T debt, deposit cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook stable
• Deutsche Bank AG L-T deposit rating cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook stable
AH yesterday, Moody’s (summary):
• Bank of America L-T senior unsecured debt cut to Baa2 from Baa1, outlook negative.
• Barclays L-T issuer rating cut to A3 from A1, outlook negatuve
• Citigroup L-T senior debt cut to Baa2 from A3, outlook negative
• Credit Suisse Group L-T deposit, senior rating cut to A1 from Aa1, outlook stable
• Goldman Sachs Group L-T senior unsecured debt cut to A3 from A1, outlook negative
• HSBC Holdings L-T senior debt cut to Aa3 from Aa2, outlook negative
• JPMorgan Chase L-T senior debt cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook negative
• Morgan Stanley L-T senior unsecured debt cut to Baa1 from A2, outlook negative
• Royal Bank of Canada L-T deposit rating cut to Aa3 from Aa1, outlook stable
• Societe Generale L-T debt, deposit cut to A2 from A1, outlook stable
• UBS L-T debt, deposit cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook stable
• Deutsche Bank AG L-T deposit rating cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook stable
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
GM!
SPY stopped at fan support?! Not clear…I'll need one more move to decide...
SPY stopped at fan support?! Not clear…I'll need one more move to decide...
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Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
Hey taggard, have you written any books?taggard wrote:Traders getting tweaked by the action
Twitter @jackwag0n
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
GLD filled the gap, as proposed as soon as it became clear that it couldn’t jump above the Regression Channel.
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Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
the open.
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Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
Taggard, rules at our office (not Cobra's office 
): anybody who writes a report without an executive summary of max 5 sentences get's beaten up 
): anybody who writes a report without an executive summary of max 5 sentences get's beaten up Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
mkt looks pretty damn weak off the bell. i'm thinking we churn or we go down hard. not likely to see any ole ole to the moon today.Petsamo wrote:Anyone think we bust yesterday's low, today?
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
Petsamo wrote:Anyone think we bust yesterday's low, today?
Odds favor it, IMO, as of 9:43....I reserve the right to change my mind though
"I told you...................bring me everyone"...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrTsuvykUZk
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
I have the belief we grind above SPY 134.5 and set a white candlestick. I know Fridays not to be bearish. But down is authorized.stucap wrote:mkt looks pretty damn weak off the bell. i'm thinking we churn or we go down hard. not likely to see any ole ole to the moon today.Petsamo wrote:Anyone think we bust yesterday's low, today?
Twitter @jackwag0n
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
I do not see any fear yet in this mkt. The move up looks to be corrective and over. But Friday's tend to be related to what they did in options so as to reap the most premium.Petsamo wrote:I have the belief we grind above SPY 134.5 and set a white candlestick. I know Fridays not to be bearish. But down is authorized.stucap wrote:mkt looks pretty damn weak off the bell. i'm thinking we churn or we go down hard. not likely to see any ole ole to the moon today.Petsamo wrote:Anyone think we bust yesterday's low, today?
If you have iTune, under Radio/ClassicRock I just found "Radio Vietnam". It beats CNBS being on:
http://www.407thrrd.proudlyserved.us/Introduction.html
"I told you...................bring me everyone"...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrTsuvykUZk
Re: 06/22/2012 Live Update
i usually don't care of gaps because i trade futures and we always filter out all gaps.
somebody gave me a set of gap fill rules last week. i calculated the chance of gap fill for today is 82%. do i trade it? no. for fun only.
somebody gave me a set of gap fill rules last week. i calculated the chance of gap fill for today is 82%. do i trade it? no. for fun only.
The goal is not uniformity. It is understanding and idea exchange.