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08/10/2012 Live Update

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Cobra
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

looks like bulls dream come true. :roll:
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rc1269
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by rc1269 »

Cobra wrote:looks like bulls dream come true. :roll:
agree... frustratingly. everybody still seems to be looking for that plunge. can't recall the last time we tanked when everybody was looking/hoping for it...
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EvilTrader
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by EvilTrader »

fehro wrote:Yesterday's sentiment result.
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
Its a contrarian indicator, but as any indicator, it may take some time to work. :|
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Al_Dente
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

On one chart: the slowdown in China and U.S. export growth
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/charti ... =rss&rss=1

30min update
810thirty.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Cobra
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

maybe a symmetrical triangle here, so the bias is on the upside.
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fehro
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by fehro »

a little messy.. more lines.. but a bear flag/wedge? fwiw
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Tutti
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by Tutti »

EvilTrader wrote:
fehro wrote:Yesterday's sentiment result.
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
Its a contrarian indicator, but as any indicator, it may take some time to work. :|
Just my $0.02U$D:
  • You have retail getting bullish
    Volume on this wedge up at multi-year lows
    Price nearing multi-year highs.
It may take time, but one has to think the risk is growing to the downside not to the upside...
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EvilTrader
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by EvilTrader »

Tutti wrote:
EvilTrader wrote:
fehro wrote:Yesterday's sentiment result.
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
Its a contrarian indicator, but as any indicator, it may take some time to work. :|
Just my $0.02U$D:
  • You have retail getting bullish
    Volume on this wedge up at multi-year lows
    Price nearing multi-year highs.
It may take time, but one has to think the risk is growing to the downside not to the upside...
exactly. Eventually, it works out.

But it may shoot a lot higher before crashing hard. So, you either accept a huge drawdown or you play it step by step.
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Tutti
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by Tutti »

EvilTrader wrote:
Tutti wrote:
EvilTrader wrote:
fehro wrote:Yesterday's sentiment result.
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
Its a contrarian indicator, but as any indicator, it may take some time to work. :|
Just my $0.02U$D:
  • You have retail getting bullish
    Volume on this wedge up at multi-year lows
    Price nearing multi-year highs.
It may take time, but one has to think the risk is growing to the downside not to the upside...
exactly. Eventually, it works out.

But it may shoot a lot higher before crashing hard. So, you either accept a huge drawdown or you play it step by step.
Big drawdowns are against my trading plan. However, if we squeeze to new highs I don't mind putting out some pilot positions and see how they fair. Eventually the bears will turn the tide - even if they dont find their footing until after the election or the start of the new year...
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Cobra
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

2 legged pullback on this leg up, not much damage, so the bias still is up.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

TESTING ONLY FOR HARAPA ONLY

I had to remove QQQ to get XIV in there…… did NOT want to do that……….
Problem: the “softies” at the bottom ARE NOW ALL ON IWM
(good if u only trade IWM/TNA/TZA but maybe better if I rearrange to have them ALL ON SPY?? hmmmm…. otherwise needs THREE separate charts 4 softies..
810vol.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
fehro
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by fehro »

longer trendlines... almost a week now battling the pink trendline/neckline H&S from last spring
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jarbo456
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by jarbo456 »

anyone taking out insurance on their long term portfolios?

eg buying TLT, writing covered calls, or just buying a few OTM puts?
agunther
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by agunther »

jarbo456 wrote:anyone taking out insurance on their long term portfolios?

eg buying TLT, writing covered calls, or just buying a few OTM puts?

Always.
Not buying TLT though.
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Tutti
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by Tutti »

agunther wrote:
jarbo456 wrote:anyone taking out insurance on their long term portfolios?

eg buying TLT, writing covered calls, or just buying a few OTM puts?

Always.
Not buying TLT though.
just increasing cash levels
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jarbo456
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by jarbo456 »

Tutti wrote:
agunther wrote:
jarbo456 wrote:anyone taking out insurance on their long term portfolios?

eg buying TLT, writing covered calls, or just buying a few OTM puts?

Always.
Not buying TLT though.
just increasing cash levels
sounds about right.

i'll be writing some calls and raising cash and buying a small position in some bonds this afternoon.
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BullBear52x
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Trin and Tick leaning bear all day, but not VIX Hmmmm
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Cobra
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

lunch time, will be back. nothing new.
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MrMiyagi
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by MrMiyagi »

This is just consolidation for higher it seems; VIX wounded and bleeding hard, no medics in sight.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 08/10/2012 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

TWO min
810twob.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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