08/17/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

lunch time, will be back. nothing to say, still in triangle.

[TraderGirl]

I think TLT will head lower by the end of the year, but it could take a breather, TNX reacted to this trendline resistance and 200dma for now...

[Tutti]

FWIW VIX vs SPY 3/09 - today

Certainly makes a good argument for taking some profits off the table in some longs and putting that money into some short probes

[Mr. BachNut]

In 2003 the VIX fell through a long term support, but it was after a 2 year bear market, so the market was headed up from the bottom, we are now nearing a top. Not saying we can't fall through support, but we may see volatility first, IMHO...

Agree. 2003 also was the start of an economic recovery and ramp in corporate earnings. We are now three years into recovery and late in corporate earnings cycle.

[sloth]

Could it really be a run to 1500+ no matter what happens in the election? Huge rally if MR wins for obvious reasons and if he loses, we go up anyway, like the last four years. With so many bears wanting to short here, and for good reason, this market will continue to melt up with the aid of dovish central bankers.

Troubling though this must be for the central bankers is how this melt up is driving interest rates higher which will dampen any housing recovery.

[Tutti]

Could it really be a run to 1500+ no matter what happens in the election? Huge rally if MR wins for obvious reasons and if he loses, we go up anyway, like the last four years. With so many bears wanting to short here, and for good reason, this market will continue to melt up with the aid of dovish central bankers.

Troubling though this must be for the central bankers is how this melt up is driving interest rates higher which will dampen any housing recovery.

The market can and will do whatever it wants to...

[TraderGirl]

TGirl: any turns next few days to a week?

There is a cycle peak around 20-24th, I have a chart that looks like the peak could be around 23rd (can be shifted by a day to two days), and I will get a more exact turn date over the weekend....

[Petsamo]

IWM is very underbought relative to SPY. So, it's time IWM outperform SPY. I'm surprised IWM isn't dragging SPY up, even a little.

[TraderGirl]

Want to buy facebook here at 19.xx.. any comment? Thanks

I think you need to see a bounce first, some pos d....IMHO. If we see a pullback in the markets soon, this will most likely go down more with it....

I think this is the more bullish count...the question is this wave 3 or C? If wave 3 then another wave coming...

[Al_Dente]

So there u have it: McClellan called a bottom Aug 21-23
(or at least I think that’s what he may/may not have said??)
Don’t forget that Tom (along with most everybody else) was calling ALL of Q1 overbought.
A Baron once told me: “Every dog has his day.”

[OverUnder]

Another kind of triangle on NAZ

lunch time, will be back. nothing to say, still in triangle.

[Mr. T]

So there u have it: McClellan called a bottom Aug 21-23
(or at least I think that’s what he may/may not have said??)
Don’t forget that Tom (along with most everybody else) was calling ALL of Q1 overbought.
A Baron once told me: “Every dog has his day.”

He called that last week. It's based on his analysis of the presidential election cycle.

So you think he's dead wrong eh?

[Al_Dente]

NOT MARKET RELATED…….. just bizarre
“The IRS agent who squatted in her own home”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ir ... 2012-08-17

[Al_Dente]

So there u have it....

He called that last week. It's based on his analysis of the presidential election cycle.
So you think he's dead wrong eh?

I don’t believe anyone anymore except Cobra
ps Mr .T: will this market ever go down ever again?

[Cobra]

triangle indeed, nothing to say.

[MrMiyagi]

triangle indeed, nothing to say.

Triangles... breakout either side, is that it?

[jabberstoxx]

Crikey!
This is just gonna keep going higher and higher, innit?

If your time horizon is longer than a few weeks and you believe what the charts are telling (as opposed to what ZeroHedge thinks is happening), and that IS a big "if", then you will notice, sir, that there are an awful lot of bullish crossovers in the works (e.g. 10 week/20 week). So if u trade strictly by chart technicals, then yup, u should be bullish.

If your time horizon is longer than a few weeks and you believe what the charts are telling (as opposed to what ZeroHedge thinks is happening), and that IS a big "if", then you will notice, sir, that there are an awful lot of bullish crossovers in the works (e.g. 10 week/20 week). So if u trade strictly by chart technicals, then yup, u should be bullish. [/quote]


at best technicals are mixed.........there are more topping patterns than I can count........negative divergence all over the place.........overbought territory

If one goes with the odds they would fall under a bearish scenario......If you base this on risk.....the risk reward is much better on the bear side........so I really

dont see how one can be bullish.........again that doesnt mean we cant or wont go higher.......but I always side with the odds..... that being said I never get married to any outlook(bad for the accounts)

[shaca]

wow, im impressed, so much volatilty , spx 1 point range in the last hour or maybe half point? vix should have been 0 at this moment
dollar is holding its gains

[Al_Dente]

Here’s opposite renko, from the evil side, it’s been bull-spy since 2 aug (green refers to bull spy)
It can change quickly……….but not lately

[OverUnder]

Let's Go.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpA3NVafsdo