08/17/2012 Live Update

[joeynickels]

Not sure how to post a chart here and this relates to longer term trade horizon not day trade. I've been looking at $TRAN and $INDU going back 2 years for Dow theory confirmation/non-confirmation. There is a longer term non-confirmation by $TRAN for over a year, a medium term non-confirmation by $TRAN since March 2012 and a shorter term non-confirmation by $TRAN since mid-June 2012. So even with the recent bullish move in $TRAN, breaking the long series of lower highs since March 2012, it would need a further move up from today's high(so far) of 1.87% to erase the shorter term non-confirmation, 3.5% to erase the medium term non-confirmation and 8.35% to erase the longer term non-confirmation. These shorter term non-confirmations often warn of sharp pullbacks in the broader market and observationally when $TRAN touches the upper BB on daily chart there are often sharp pullbacks for $TRAN and the broader market.

[Harapa]

Reg: Vixies
got it...THANKS

All "doom & gloom" crowed gone fishing and left vixies behind?

[BullBear52x]

paging BB52X

The VIX (daily, 5 min) call in your yesterday afternoon update seems invalidated now as we have lower lows printed , may be we could expect more upside on equities before seeing any correction!!!! your suggestions; I see you are looking for a minor correction , wondering if you can share more insights on your sell signal

Yes, that signal is invalidated today, for VIX/SPY set up I will have to look for a new set up. Too many people are looking at VIX and talk about it, the power that be can tell. another way to look at VIX is low 15 imply low volatility in equity market, small trading range, side ways to up, but if vix stay low far too long the market will be in complacency. see? can not be too relax or too wary in any direcion. I keep saying price pays, know your trend directional is probably the most important.

[TraderGirl]

UCO in a zone of past resistance....???

[MrMiyagi]

Not sure how to post a chart here and this relates to longer term trade horizon not day trade.

Interesting observations.
To post charts, simplest way is save your chart on your computer Desktop, hit "Post Reply" on the bottom left, hit "Upload Attachment" and attach your files.

[BullBear52x]

sell is in again let see this time

[joe-gamma]

Not sure how to post a chart here and this relates to longer term trade horizon not day trade. I've been looking at $TRAN and $INDU going back 2 years for Dow theory confirmation/non-confirmation. There is a longer term non-confirmation by $TRAN for over a year, a medium term non-confirmation by $TRAN since March 2012 and a shorter term non-confirmation by $TRAN since mid-June 2012. So even with the recent bullish move in $TRAN, breaking the long series of lower highs since March 2012, it would need a further move up from today's high(so far) of 1.87% to erase the shorter term non-confirmation, 3.5% to erase the medium term non-confirmation and 8.35% to erase the longer term non-confirmation. These shorter term non-confirmations often warn of sharp pullbacks in the broader market and observationally when $TRAN touches the upper BB on daily chart there are often sharp pullbacks for $TRAN and the broader market.

great info!...on the weekend updates there is quite alot of L/T discussions too.....seems Russels and Trans been trying to catchup this week...
thanks, Joe

[Cobra]

Not sure how to post a chart here and this relates to longer term trade horizon not day trade. I've been looking at $TRAN and $INDU going back 2 years for Dow theory confirmation/non-confirmation. There is a longer term non-confirmation by $TRAN for over a year, a medium term non-confirmation by $TRAN since March 2012 and a shorter term non-confirmation by $TRAN since mid-June 2012. So even with the recent bullish move in $TRAN, breaking the long series of lower highs since March 2012, it would need a further move up from today's high(so far) of 1.87% to erase the shorter term non-confirmation, 3.5% to erase the medium term non-confirmation and 8.35% to erase the longer term non-confirmation. These shorter term non-confirmations often warn of sharp pullbacks in the broader market and observationally when $TRAN touches the upper BB on daily chart there are often sharp pullbacks for $TRAN and the broader market.

Here's how to post images: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14

[Al_Dente]

....Reg: Vixies.....got it...THANKS

All "doom & gloom" crowed gone fishing and left vixies behind?

Boss: left MY behind.......but i still got my brain
just read this..... inspired me......again
“Remove This Word From Your Vocabulary”
http://www.kirkreport.com/2012/08/17/re ... ocabulary/

[67Chevy]

A while back, I was reading some stuff from an old commodities floor trader who said he was told to get a Farmers Almanac when he got in the business, primarily for the agricultural information.

Even though he left the floor years ago, he said he still used the lunar table because he observed the market often turned around the moon cycle. So, just for fun, I went back and put in the dates on the daily chart below. (This data in EOD so it does not include the candle for today).

TraderGirl, I must admit that in the past I have been skeptical about cycles, astro, aliens, etc. but it is really quite astonishing.

[Harapa]

Is VIX predicting 95-00 or '03-07 like bull market. Someone knows something big is going to happen in next few weeks-month that is going to solve all world's problems. I know this is not what is on you mind right at this moment, but just imagine this for a minute,

[joe-gamma]

So there u have it: McClellan called a bottom Aug 21-23
(or at least I think that’s what he may/may not have said??)
Don’t forget that Tom (along with most everybody else) was calling ALL of Q1 overbought.
A Baron once told me: “Every dog has his day.”

thx, DR Al: this dog here hasn't had his day (or way) in a while!

I am not ready to sell here but the historic bull data for aug in election years is beginning to look interesting, particularly against such weak fundamental views...



a photo of my friend, evidently needs some more fiber in the diet....

[mocker]

http://www.minyanville.com/business-new ... from=yahoo

S&P hitting 1800 by November 30, 2013

[shaca]

Is VIX predicting 95-00 or '03-07 like bull market. Someone knows something big is going to happen in next few weeks-month that is going to solve all world's problems. I know this is not what is on you mind right at this moment, but just imagine this for a minute,

look how fast money is moving... even after these QE, money is not going anywhere
and this from zerohedge bears
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/only-un-m ... -ever-need

[BullBear52x]

Liquidity side of thing, a trade back above recent high of 25ish before I would say more up ahead. this the reason we need QE

[TraderGirl]

A while back, I was reading some stuff from an old commodities floor trader who said he was told to get a Farmers Almanac when he got in the business, primarily for the agricultural information.

Even though he left the floor years ago, he said he still used the lunar table because he observed the market often turned around the moon cycle. So, just for fun, I went back and put in the dates on the daily chart below. (This data in EOD so it does not include the candle for today).

TraderGirl, I must admit that in the past I have been skeptical about cycles, astro, aliens, etc. but it is really quite astonishing.

Nice Chart!! Another believer!!

[joeynickels]

$TRAN versus $INDU non-confirmation

[MrMiyagi]

67chevy, that is quite an interesting chart, thanks!

TRIN creeping up bearish side, albeit very small move.

[TraderGirl]

Is VIX predicting 95-00 or '03-07 like bull market. Someone knows something big is going to happen in next few weeks-month that is going to solve all world's problems. I know this is not what is on you mind right at this moment, but just imagine this for a minute,

look how fast money is moving... even after these QE, money is not going anywhere
and this from zerohedge bears
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/only-un-m ... -ever-need

Looks like a head and shoulders on that iron ore chart....

[joe-gamma]

slight chance of russel dbltop, 1/2 point PF chart,
GL