09/29/2012 Weekend Update

[uempel]

Latest short interest report
Note: NUGT short interest increased by 244%
TZA shorts increased by 54%
etc
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... tml#shortD
Oddball note: it appears they are using boring TIPS, probably as an inflation play (?)...Shorts in TIP decreased by 41%

Hey Al, do you interpret a huge increase in short positions as bullish or bearish? Not holding anything against you but I would think large short ratio is actually bullish but when there's a quick increase don't know how I would think of it....

yes huge increase in short interest = bullish

increased short on TZA right?

This chain is a little confusing.
If increasing short interest is a contrary indicator, then increasing shorts in TZA indicate that TZA would rise in a squeeze.
However, as TZA is a levered Bear etf. So, bullish TZA is bearish market in general.
So, do you read the increase in TZA shorts as market bullish or bearish?

I have the same data as Al, I share his view that fear will push the market higher after a good dip down at the start of the week.

[uempel]

Mr. Bachnut: so far the big boys have not been successful in 2012, they are lagging market performance. A few months ago GS had a year end target of 1250. They recently upped it to 1350 and I heard that it's now under review again. I would think that short positions are bullish, even if the some big boys are short. There are big opponents (whom we don't know) who can easily exploit this imbalance. Hell, if I could push the market higher with a boatload of futures I sure would

[Seawaves]

slightly longer term, bull still has some way to go!

[Seawaves]

very short term, watch the purple line, if broken, may test 1420 area, which I believe will hold.

[joe-gamma]

slightly longer term, bull still has some way to go!

thanks for these charts, can you suggest what you read into them?
the cpc data looks similar to prior QE rallies?

not clear on what to make of your COT data..
thanks, joe

[uempel]

very short term, watch the purple line, if broken, may test 1420 area, which I believe will hold.

Seawaves, pattern suggests further downside before a rally can begin. Some charts point to 1417, my belief (or do I indulge in wishful thinking?) is that the dip will go a bit further, just to encourage the shorts prior to a massive squeeze...

[shaca]

weekly dax.
take a look at macd, a breakout would mean dax>8000 else it would go down from here and that was a top

did anyone say anything about that monthly doji on apple?

[Al_Dente]

Just pointing out all the rich information available on the NYSE short interest report.

NYSE Regulations require broker/dealers to report their short stats on a bi-monthly basis, so that is the best/most current data we have.
Often the shorts are correct and a stock declines.
But when the short interest gets too large, contrary thinking calls it a “crowded trade” and a bullish indicator.
When short interest rises to RECORD HIGHS it becomes a major contrarian signal of impending bullish short squeezes.
[Rationale: if everybody and their Uncle Bob are short, who is left to short the stock? So if everyone is already “all in” short…. and there are no more new shorts on the horizon…. then the bulls can take over…. and once they do…. a small bull rise can turn into a monster squeeze as the short stops are taken out…]

ALSO: I have been posting and linking to nyse si every two weeks since last October. This is the first time I have gotten a single comment about it. The fact that folks are a bit worked up about it this weekend is some kind of indicator in itself (?) as usually nobody gives a shite about si.

NOTE: I AM STILL UNABLE TO VERIFY THE TOTAL NUMBER OF NYSE SHARES SOLD SHORT CURRENTLY (please post if u have it). So I can’t say that it’s a bull spy signal until I can find the aggregate TOTAL number of nyse shorts.

[ps thanks Bachnut for clarification: Cobra’s chart is for QQQ (nasdaq 100) “commercial” hedgers, the NYSE si is for stocks/ETFs trading on the NYSE]

Last example: CIG short interest increased 684%. That is huge. The stock is still down. If the stock starts to bounce, all those shorts are in jeopardy, and a small bounce could turn into a sizeable squeeze as the short stops are taken out. [viz: every short sale is a buy order waiting to happen]

[Al_Dente]

ps great stuff from EVERYONE this weekend, THANKS ALL
(where’s the Baron?)

[BullBear52x]

DBV for carry trade, not bearish looking here, my read will be side way to up. a white candle after doji is usually bullish but new high need to break out to be sure of further move up.

VIX is bullish bias, bear equity.

Qs VXN leaning bearish again

The BPSPX is clearly gone bearish here.

HL are still bulllish, once all three drop below zero then I can see a further weakness in over all trend, right now these big guys are still bullish.

[BullBear52x]

ps great stuff from EVERYONE this weekend, THANKS ALL
(where’s the Baron?)

If this market is only to rely on short squeeze and short cover, would that be more of a reason to go shorts? these chart patterns are bearish the only gap up huge to change these bearish look.

[Al_Dente]

Hi Ws....OK I will not bore you with the specific details

THANKS KEIZAI
i would LOVE to be bored with more details if u feel so inclined

[Al_Dente]

Trucking Index not feeling the same love as the market

clarkw
nice trucking
u find good stuff
I think my take is same as yours (?): if the economy is all “recovered” soon, then the truckers should be shipping more stuff, instead of non-confirming the spy highs. We have to add that one to our HUGE pile of non-confirmation charts.

[Al_Dente]

It’s Sunday, so vote again: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Any questions, ask Etta: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL3ns

[Al_Dente]

ps great stuff from EVERYONE this weekend, THANKS ALL
(where’s the Baron?)

If this market is only to rely on short squeeze and short cover, would that be more of a reason to go shorts? these chart patterns are bearish the only gap up huge to change these bearish look.

The attachment 1.JPG is no longer available

The attachment 2.JPG is no longer available

Yo Charty, How u doin’?
Yoooouuuu whoooooo.... I’m over here

[BullBear52x]

ps great stuff from EVERYONE this weekend, THANKS ALL
(where’s the Baron?)

If this market is only to rely on short squeeze and short cover, would that be more of a reason to go shorts? these chart patterns are bearish the only gap up huge to change these bearish look.

1.JPG

2.JPG

Yo Charty, How u doin’?
Yoooouuuu whoooooo.... I’m over here

you whoooo.png

Peek-a -boo

[Al_Dente]

I'm in the dark as to next week. Presumably markets will be volatile, but that's all I know...

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""""SPX tried to stay above upper red band…..."""
Bolinger 13/1 weekly = gorgeous
thanks
(I stole it)

[Seawaves]

slightly longer term, bull still has some way to go!

thanks for these charts, can you suggest what you read into them?
the cpc data looks similar to prior QE rallies?

not clear on what to make of your COT data..
thanks, joe

Focus on the Net_NC, which is the market mover, and it keeps ticking up without any sign of divergence with the price yet.

[Mr. BachNut]

I have the same data as Al, I share his view that fear will push the market higher after a good dip down at the start of the week.[/quote]

OK.

[BullBear52x]

One more food for thought.