Cobra's Market View

Big questionmark:

uempel wrote:Don't quite understand what's going on, it's either options expiry tomorrow Friday - or that the market has turned to the downside:

SPX23.png

Uempel..The NYSEBP Point & Figure Chart turned to "0" a few days ago.In the past this has been reliabel indicator. It now reads the mkt will be in a dn trend for few weeks.

99er wrote:(Reuters) - Investors betting on a rise in stocks, bonds and commodities should prepare for a loud sucking sound in their portfolios next month when the Federal Reserve pulls the plug on its $600 billion stimulus program.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/ ... S220110519

Dear 99, the signal to go short will be when you turn bullish...

I still believe that this is just a simple V shape recovery at the lower channel border with a little undershoot.

BullBear52x wrote:Good luck trading all, I'll be Baaaccck, may be not if fishing is good. net shorts still.

The terminator got extra kids, this is so funny and and the IMF chief is a raper, lots of surprises this week that's why market moving up.

Wish I were fishing! Working title for next Terminator sequel is "The Fornicator".

Back on topic, for Max Pain followers SPY expiration at either 133 or 134 is about equal, with 135 the next choice. Very high options volume in both 134 and 135 today, so my bet is somewhere between or at 135 for a settle. Put on 34-35-36 butterfly spread today. Plan is to get out tomorrow at least an hour prior to the close.

As always, thanks to all for posts and charts.

dr659 wrote:

Cobra wrote:ok, I was wrong, there's a slightly chances though this is a back test of the broken channel. I don't hope too much on bear case though.

What if it fails to move back ito the channel

sharp down then the downtrend resumes.

still testing, critical time. my favorite pattern is, of course, another push.

KENA wrote:

uempel wrote:Don't quite understand what's going on, it's either options expiry tomorrow Friday - or that the market has turned to the downside:

SPX23.png

Uempel..The NYSEBP Point & Figure Chart turned to "0" a few days ago.In the past this has been reliabel indicator. It now reads the mkt will be in a dn trend for few weeks.

Yeah Kena, I know. Bullish percentages are also pointing down. But yesterday's bullish signal on the 10 min (with the bull flag and the zigzag) were really tempting. If there is no bounce above the 20 DMA on the SPX I'll be more comfortable with short positions, but today the bulls are fighting back and trying to push SPX higher... I'm just fooling around at the moment and waiting for good entry points for longer term positions.

Cobra wrote:still testing, critical time. my favorite pattern is, of course, another push.

Hi Cobra, in the end of the day you will be bullish.

uempel:

Stocks, bonds, gold and the euro are expected to fall in the three months after the end of the Fed's second massive bond buying operation, also known as quantitative easing, or QE2, a Reuters poll of 64 analysts and fund managers found on Thursday.

We're not alone.

gabor wrote:I still believe that this is just a simple V shape recovery at the lower channel border with a little undershoot.

Ahhh, finally a bull, a real contrarian here. Great charts!

99er wrote:uempel:

Stocks, bonds, gold and the euro are expected to fall in the three months after the end of the Fed's second massive bond buying operation, also known as quantitative easing, or QE2, a Reuters poll of 64 analysts and fund managers found on Thursday.

We're not alone.

Problem is that analysts and fund managers tend to be wrong...

99er wrote:uempel:

Stocks, bonds, gold and the euro are expected to fall in the three months after the end of the Fed's second massive bond buying operation, also known as quantitative easing, or QE2, a Reuters poll of 64 analysts and fund managers found on Thursday.

We're not alone.

The bears are about to get blown out. Let me point out all the many evidences that point to a bottom here.

MACD bullish cross on 10 yr yields imply a move out of bonds into stocks. This is a reliable buy signal. ROC indicator that Cobra invented is also bullish with rate of change too low on bond yields.

MACD on CPC has moved into bullish territory -- too many puts bought mean a bottom.

ISEE avgs are in bullish territory with the 5 day avg under 110.

The recent sell off had a clear 3 waves down and bounce. I don't see any real selling here yet.

Precious metals complex looks bullish.

short to 1337

That's the spirit Kissy-face!!!

cletus wrote:

99er wrote:uempel:

Stocks, bonds, gold and the euro are expected to fall in the three months after the end of the Fed's second massive bond buying operation, also known as quantitative easing, or QE2, a Reuters poll of 64 analysts and fund managers found on Thursday.

We're not alone.

The bears are about to get blown out. Let me point out all the many evidences that point to a bottom here.

MACD bullish cross on 10 yr yields imply a move out of bonds into stocks. This is a reliable buy signal. ROC indicator that Cobra invented is also bullish with rate of change too low on bond yields.

MACD on CPC has moved into bullish territory -- too many puts bought mean a bottom.

ISEE avgs are in bullish territory with the 5 day avg under 110.

The recent sell off had a clear 3 waves down and bounce. I don't see any real selling here yet.

Precious metals complex looks bullish.

My indicators don't point to anything close to a bottom.

I'm now expecting (aka hoping) a sell-off and close near lows of the day around 134, which also happens to be the Pivot.

When an expected trend is advertised in financial news, the opposite will come true.

There are too many fears on the market, which is not an optimal condition for stock falls. (Greek fears, Euro fears, commodity fears) Optimism and careless ethusiastic buyers are necessary for a real bear market. I do not see it yet.

soku wrote:short to 1337

Sorry soku, I see no indication of a dip to 1337 in the next two hours. If you want to keep your short position for days or even weeks it might make sense, but as a DT I just don't see it...

CLETUS.. You have some very good points.We will have to wait and see how things turn out. Right now the mkt is over bought and I think the big put volume was for protection and may not have the effect on the mkt as many think.

ok the 3rd push exactly like I hoped. now very critical.