Cobra's Market View

uempel wrote:

thanks for the chart! may the force be with bulls~~ [/quote]


The red line is MA 100. What are the three black lines?[/quote]
trend channel?[/quote]

Yeah, as Mr. Smith writes it's a trend channel, in TA speak this is an Andrews Fork with a middle line. Works on Newton's 3rd law of actio/reactio. Rookie traders should go to "Chart School" at stockcharts which gives an initial introduction to TA, then read John Murphy's TA of the Financial Markets, then put half of their money into a trading account, keep a log of all the trades (with the why's of the trade) and after having lost the first half of their money try again with the second half...[/quote]

Thanks for the "Chart School" and other tips.

What happens after I lose the other half?

Cobra wrote:another overshot plus volume surge so a pullback is possible here, could be 2 legged.

Does 2nd leg normally mean retest previous low?

wishful wrote:

Cobra wrote:another overshot plus volume surge so a pullback is possible here, could be 2 legged.

Does 2nd leg normally mean retest previous low?

no.

statistically, 90%+ chances should open > close, so looks like bulls again made a lower odds winning trade? simply nowadays 90% odds bear setup are not good enough for bears.

critical here as it's possible the rebound was to test the previous high before a bigger rollover.

Does anyone see this as a bottom, since the VIX could go negative today...also the last 6 times we had this setup, it marked a bottom. This does look a little different, but going long here for a swing trade outweighs going short.

See these dates and what followed them...similar set up to today.

3/30/09
4/07/09
4/28/09
8/17/09
2/4/10
11/23/10

But the market must, must, must open up tomorrow.

Cobra wrote:critical here as it's possible the rebound was to test the previous high before a bigger rollover.

come on. it is still a big down day. closed previous gap with ignorable difference, and created a big gap.
to be a bear, u gonna be patient.

either a bear trap or a very good short setup here.

The VIX does seem to point to going lower in most recent cases except March low.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... 3301690275

Cobra wrote:either a bear trap or a very good short setup here.

Ohh yeah, there are these two options all the time.

gabor wrote:

Cobra wrote:either a bear trap or a very good short setup here.

Ohh yeah, there are these two options all the time.

soku wrote:

Cobra wrote:critical here as it's possible the rebound was to test the previous high before a bigger rollover.

come on. it is still a big down day. closed previous gap with ignorable difference, and created a big gap.
to be a bear, u gonna be patient.

Actually bears shouldn't need to be that patient. Sell offs tend to happen much quicker than rises in stocks. So, the fact that retail sentiment has died and the market has taken weeks to barely fall at all should be a warning to bears.

Cobra wrote:

gabor wrote:

Cobra wrote:either a bear trap or a very good short setup here.

Ohh yeah, there are these two options all the time.

turnaround Tuesday Bought SSO at 52.41

cletus wrote:

soku wrote:

Cobra wrote:critical here as it's possible the rebound was to test the previous high before a bigger rollover.

come on. it is still a big down day. closed previous gap with ignorable difference, and created a big gap.
to be a bear, u gonna be patient.

Actually bears shouldn't need to be that patient. Sell offs tend to happen much quicker than rises in stocks. So, the fact that retail sentiment has died and the market has taken weeks to barely fall at all should be a warning to bears.

yeah, that's why I mostly worries about bears. The market seems to refuse to drop.

volume surge, so could be a rebound of some kind here.

soku wrote:

soku wrote:i think it is bottomed for today. es may bounce to 1320 neighborhood for another judgment.

market is getting tired. trailing stop in.
the volume trigger is hard to judge. i think in the 1321-1323 area. well just a community service. don't take it seriously.

add: as typing, stop triggered. i don't think 1317.75 area will hold. es may go down to 1315.5 for support

the battle around 1315.5 started. i think the short term trend is down, but i will close my short position b4 4:15.

pivot=close for today is 1315...

yes, short L2 turns out to be very good short. the reason i said either a good short or a bear trap is, if this is a failed L2 short, you'd see bears running for cover then as the result the market will suddenly shot sharply higher. that's the risk bear should be aware for shorting such a L2.

Observation: This decline since May 2 has been characterized by moderate to low volume and a pretty relaxed VIX. Even with today's gap down, there is no panic. Hmmm.

So far still in the ellipse: