Cobra's Market View

pablorynx wrote:I know this is mostly an intraday thot chat. but, if we close below 1331.10 (which is 90% that we have a daily close somewhere below there in the future), then today would classify as a bearish engulfing candle. my guess is we probably shouldn't do that unless there is REAL downside to the mkt (read:1250). Also, someone mentioned today as a new moon, people around possible thinking it might affect fixed income/gold more than equities. Just throwing my two cents in.

I don't get why people are plowing into gold today. I'm short gold right and down on it slightly now but not really worried. Seems like a stupid trade to me (to be buying it), although they might test the old highs or make a slight new high.

I think, spx is below the 55 DMA. This was quick compared to the effort was done on to climb above.

"Behold this rally, Cramer said Tuesday. The "Mad Money" host likened it to a worldwide relay, which started in Shanghai, continued in Japan, went to Europe and finished strong in the USA."
and remember his call to keep buying silver:)

Cobra wrote:ok, guys, I really need go to washroom, the longer time kind of going into washroom. so cannot comment for the next 10 min.

Best. Post. Ever.

If close here, MDD ...

Agree. LOL!!

61.8% retrace tested and we're back inside the triangle. This price action continues to look like a Wave 4 correction as these swings come fast and furious. I'd say the 50-day SMA is the key price to close above or below depending on your bias. Feels like the 1st of March again...

Hey cletus, wouldn't it be strange (and stupid) if some newcomer just picks up an idea in a forum like this and risks his money without understanding the ups and downs of the market? I believe the great opportunity here is to learn applications of TA - and nothing else.

To just copy some trade from anybody, even from Cobra, is not very wise...

cletus wrote:
I post these hugely profitable trades on here and it seems like some other people get a lot of thanks and credit for posting a chart and giving hardly any advice at all (not speaking about cobra). Strange world we live in.

Just look at oil. I said I was shorting USO off the open yesterday at 40.70 and a now it's under 40.

You're welcome.

gold appears to be being bot because of the fiat money argument. A dollar rally used to be a risk off correlation. Today the dollar is down. I'm afraid the worldwide correlations have broken down and the delinking reveals much more about the state of fiscal/monetary systems worldwide. Growth is not currently strong anywhere (reference various PMIs and ISMs in the last 24 hours). While it remains to be seen if it's structural (probably) or temporal in nature, the mkt is voting already by buying gold and eschewing other currencies. the EURO actually tried to rally off of the US equity open.

ok, i'm back. indeed a rebound. now we need see how this rebound goes before making our next move.

1323 on the ES was where we broke out on the 2nd try last Thursday...so I would guess it is hugely important for that to hold.

Moon cycle with SP500. Green stars mark full moons. This is accurate for sure, because I made it in MATLAB with Financial Tool_Box.

uempel wrote:Hey cletus, wouldn't it be strange (and stupid) if some newcomer just picks up an idea in a forum like this and risks his money without understanding the ups and downs of the market? I believe the great opportunity here is to learn applications of TA - and nothing else.

To just copy some trade from anybody, even from Cobra, is not very wise...

cletus wrote:
I post these hugely profitable trades on here and it seems like some other people get a lot of thanks and credit for posting a chart and giving hardly any advice at all (not speaking about cobra). Strange world we live in.

Just look at oil. I said I was shorting USO off the open yesterday at 40.70 and a now it's under 40.

You're welcome.

Well said. Thanks to all who post charts and idea, what I got here is better than that of the guy who roll up his sleeve, push buy and sell button on TV and everyone think he's real deal.

AAPL bounced at 347, followed by QQQ. But the “noon balloon” is not a good predictor of moves on close…

Update:

ok, my wild guess for how this going to end the next. let's see.

cobra,
Your pinky line=TLT is flying up $1.13 today.

Tabby wrote:cobra,
Your pinky line=TLT is flying up $1.13 today.

yeah, but green line is more important which represents liquidity.

El-Erian talking down possibility of QE 3 on CNBC, caveat emptor bulls...

I look at SPY comparison from last July, focus on moving averages, the different of today's is the st moving average is still pointing down. for swing trader this is too weak to go long here if you are bullish better to wait until the MA is turning up.