07/11/2011 Intraday Watering

[Michelle]

Cobra is also teaching others what he's learned from many years of trading. That's rare to fine. No one will ever be 100% accurate on market direction, but Cobra has a high percentage correct market calls.

[Cobra]

cobra, still think an accelerated car can not back down still think we make new highs? this market is crazy

back test the high still is possible, it's really rare we simply tank from here. but anyway, who cares, I'm shorting now. will worry about bulls the other day.

Wow. That's a pretty cavalier response.

Your analysis last week was bullish. Today we drop almost 2% SPX. It's not surprising some of your followers have legitimate questions, like "Hey man, is this drop is a game changer?"

Mebbe I'm missing something, but that seemed like an odd way to reply.

well, I think you might not read my report carefully. I was expecting a pullback not small one, remember? Because NYMO was way too high. But I also said it's very rare to simply tank here. So it's basically on different time frame. And even the most recent report, this weekend one, I said I expect some weakness this week right? I admit I didn't expect it to be today, but I think I'm mostly inline with the market.

As I said, I'll worry about bulls the other day, it's partly joke and also what I'm talking here is mostly intraday, not a daily report. again, you should know the time frame.

[alvian33]

yeap, there are plenty of sites that will kill your account, one example is xsetups

[uempel]

it was a L2 short on first touching EMA20, critical here, breakdown would be double top, breakout would be a failed L2, chances are good the low was in today. Let's wait and see.

I agree. Here update of my "chart of the day":

[rhight]

rhight:

Great chart! So informative at just one glance. StockCharts sure looks appealing as a charting tool.

Thanks. Completely customizable, and so the charts are only as good or informative as the you can make them. You can learn a lot free from their chart school area. Additionally, I've incorporated ideas from several reference books. A persons system can be TOO complicated, and mine probably is (the paralysis of analysis), I'm always bumping up against the annotation limit. But, I'm going to hit a home run one of these days, if I keep practicing. I'm convinced that this trader's market has become highly technical in its' short to intermediate term behavior (rather than fundamental) simply due to all the computer program trading. Here is the 60 min. chart. Really needs to hold here (1319) for the swing channel up is to continue. I see real problems if we dive through the 50 DMA (now 1317). Important cyclical trend line support (heavy line with 3 touches since March 2009 low) coming in at 1277 today. Big things happening in the international and debt markets, should be worrying, and don't know how the central bankers will react, or if they are running out of room to react. Just trying to survive in a very confusing world.

“right”: nice chart and commentary! I am also keeping in mind the Kabuki, inherent to an OpEx week, even in these crazy times…Reversal “bullish” moments are a must of this dance, and they will very probably happen violently! Fabricated news should help such “events”…

Kabuki - so true

Also, much thanks to Cobra for hosting his great blog and analysis.

[AK84]

Ummm...Cobra is the best out there...NO DOUBT!!! dont mess with da cobraaaa or u will get bitten v v v v v (insert vvv x 100 ) badly

[Cobra]

cobra, still think an accelerated car can not back down still think we make new highs? this market is crazy

back test the high still is possible, it's really rare we simply tank from here. but anyway, who cares, I'm shorting now. will worry about bulls the other day.

Wow. That's a pretty cavalier response.

Your analysis last week was bullish. Today we drop almost 2% SPX. It's not surprising some of your followers have legitimate questions, like "Hey man, is this drop is a game changer?"

Mebbe I'm missing something, but that seemed like an odd way to reply.

Hmm, on 2nd thought, maybe you didn't read it as a joke. And also you forgot the very important thing about the market analysis: trade what you see not what you believe. so the joke is really about trade what I see, although I still believe we'll revisit the high.

Sorry, for not making the answer clearly. So the formal answer is:

Yes, I still expect the high to be tested at least.
But for intraday, I'm shorting now, I don't see signs the pullback is over yet.
And since the market is always right, so there're some chances that my call could be wrong, I'll change my call if I see more evidences but for now I'll maintain the high will be revisited.

Is that a correct answer you think? Thanks for reminding me, really.

[BBFinance]

Also, look at the various PIIGS 2 year bond rates today. That will give you the idea of the direction of the market.
Anyway, they will have to create a panic in the market this week.

[AK84]

cobra, still think an accelerated car can not back down still think we make new highs? this market is crazy

back test the high still is possible, it's really rare we simply tank from here. but anyway, who cares, I'm shorting now. will worry about bulls the other day.

Wow. That's a pretty cavalier response.

Your analysis last week was bullish. Today we drop almost 2% SPX. It's not surprising some of your followers have legitimate questions, like "Hey man, is this drop is a game changer?"

Mebbe I'm missing something, but that seemed like an odd way to reply.

Hmm, on 2nd thought, maybe you didn't read it as a joke. And also you forgot the very important thing about the market analysis: trade what you see not what you believe. so the joke is really about trade what I see, although I still believe we'll revisit the high.

Sorry, for not making the answer clearly. So the formal answer is:

Yes, I still expect the high to be tested at least.
But for intraday, I'm shorting now, I don't see signs the pullback is over yet.
And since the market is always right, so there're some chances that my call could be wrong, I'll change my call if I see more evidences but for now I'll maintain the high will be revisited.

Is that a correct answer you think? Thanks for reminding me, really.

This guy is just TOO TOO NICE!!!

[uempel]

Update:

[Cobra]

down volume : up volume almost 22, plus QQQ is weak now, looks like a breakdown is more likely, it's really rare for the market simply form a V shape reversal here, so chances are higher on the down side, but again market is always right, I set break even stop loss for the rest of my short position. I really hope it won't be triggered.

[Cobra]

little fib info.

[99er]

SPX
1280.
H&S and soon an accelerated channel down.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/spx_9063.html

[KENA]

To Cobra and all..I agree.Thanks Cobra for the great work

[KENA]

Had to leave for awhile and now time for workout.Not doing much today but the mkt is letting me catch up on my shorts sooo lets keep it moving dn.

[Cobra]

To Cobra and all..I agree.Thanks Cobra for the great work

thanks. it reminds me that i must make all my comments clearly, so not a bad suggestion at all, really.

by the way, i'm typing in my bath room (believe or not ).

[starix]

cobra, still think an accelerated car can not back down still think we make new highs? this market is crazy

back test the high still is possible, it's really rare we simply tank from here. but anyway, who cares, I'm shorting now. will worry about bulls the other day.

Wow. That's a pretty cavalier response.

Your analysis last week was bullish. Today we drop almost 2% SPX. It's not surprising some of your followers have legitimate questions, like "Hey man, is this drop is a game changer?"

Mebbe I'm missing something, but that seemed like an odd way to reply.

Hmm, on 2nd thought, maybe you didn't read it as a joke. And also you forgot the very important thing about the market analysis: trade what you see not what you believe. so the joke is really about trade what I see, although I still believe we'll revisit the high.

Sorry, for not making the answer clearly. So the formal answer is:

Yes, I still expect the high to be tested at least.
But for intraday, I'm shorting now, I don't see signs the pullback is over yet.
And since the market is always right, so there're some chances that my call could be wrong, I'll change my call if I see more evidences but for now I'll maintain the high will be revisited.

Is that a correct answer you think? Thanks for reminding me, really.

Plus the throughout report of SPY out of BB line , the pullback target also reached . Excellent job! Cobra.

[uempel]

This week's market action will be determined a) European debt, b) expiry on Friday, c) Alcoa today and other reports this week - conclusion is that anything can happen.

[uempel]

To Cobra and all..I agree.Thanks Cobra for the great work

thanks. it reminds me that i must make all my comments clearly, so not a bad suggestion at all, really.

by the way, i'm typing in my bath room (believe or not ).

We are all glad that we don't have to watch...

[Cobra]

To Cobra and all..I agree.Thanks Cobra for the great work

thanks. it reminds me that i must make all my comments clearly, so not a bad suggestion at all, really.

by the way, i'm typing in my bath room (believe or not ).

We are all glad that we don't have to watch...