Cobra's Market View

BullBear52x wrote:Looks like fourth time is no a charm either, well, try again next time.

of course as soon as i said that, SPY broke below the 20 MA. i stand corrected.

Petsamo wrote:The German DAX & EWG did not follow the SPX in the rally. So I think the bulls don't have much support here.

FTSE is almost red as well. I still stand by a gap close today.

jarbo456 wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Looks like fourth time is no a charm either, well, try again next time.

i think you're jumping the gun. if it's tested this many times, i'm bullish biased it'll break it to the upside. just my opinion.

Sorry, I should said good risk/reward spot. so long we can easily identify if it's go or no go. sound better?

Still long.
Tightening stop as mechanical model is signaling sell.
Want to see post opex trading to confirm signal though.
Using a little discretion here as the model is conflicting strong seasonality and has, to a degree, been affected by opex.
Besides seasonality, there is also the strong presidential cycle stats (3rd year is statistically significant up).
After today, there are 9 trading days left to the year, and Mr. Market is just a stones throw from having another positive 3rd year in the presidential cycle. It is pretty darn close.
Absent an event that dominates trading, I imagine (maybe just wishful thinking ) one more attempt to post an up year. Said another way, it is hard for me to imagine the Bulls just rolling over and conceding the year when they are so close to a win (an ugly win but a win).
The action at today's close may provide a clue to next week.

Can't say the same thing about January. If we get some YE rally, it may be something worth fading.

Update

ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/es_1836.html

On your marks...

Intraday reversal chart pattern, side ways to down

They are not so excited in Europe (DAX, CAC..), like in America....

BullBear52x wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

SB73 wrote:Increasing short positions. My analysis on black candles says we will fill the gap today.

can't borrow EDC FAS TNA I am stuck with only SSO

CAN’T BORROW = EVERYONE SHORT ALREADY (the long ETFs) = NO SHARES AVAILABLE FOR MORE SHORTING = WHAT DOES THAT TELL US BARON.

I don't know, my guess? Down Monday and Tuesday Big, right now short squeeze up a little more? what do you see?

What happened last week when they wouldn’t let you borrow (was it EDC/EDZ ???)
All I know is too crowded trade = gotta watch for the contrarian trade (?)
TOOOOOO many shorts on long ETFs = go contrarian (?)
Or wait for best (?) signal which would be when they OPEN UP the gates again for shorting (?)
(Baron: this is all kool-aid, but so important to figure it out, note lot of question marks above)

Also important: who does your order-entry-firm clear through? (will tell us who is controlling those floodgates)
PAGING OTHER FOLKS: FIND OUT WHO YOUR FIRM CLEARS THEIR TRADES THROUGH.
One minute phone call to your broker: “Who do you clear your trades through…oh, u don’t know…please ask your manager, I’ll hold…”
Answer will be either “self clearing” (meaning they own their own seat on the NYSE floor; they clear their own trades), or they give u the name of the “squid” they use for clearing. If the answer is something like “Broadcourt” etc., that u’ve never heard of…MAKE THEM TELL U (PLEASE) who that is (eg: who owns Broadcourt? It’s the wholly owned clearing-firm-subsidary of Merill Lynch/BAC).
KNOW WHO EXECUTES YOUR TRADES ON THE FLOORS/COMPUTERS.
PS: all the above = equities only (I know squat about futures)

PS: JIMME I LOVE YOU, thx for gold link, will study later
PPS: I have electrician here, can’t watch board/post like I usually do, plus I just exited SLV scalp EARLY as I’m distracted.

Yesterday's post...

A=1210 - 1225.6
B=1225.6 - 1216 ( .618*A)
C=1216 - 1231

Now it is all downhill from here...1150 here we come.

This is REALLY scary, if you look at the pricture of the 10yr US-Treasury prices from November, we are now at the same "fear level" again

However, the sheeple from the equity market seem to TOTALLY ignore this fact and bid it up like there is no tomorrow

So guess who is normally right, the bond market of course, this would mean we will see the SPY in a VERY SHORT time down to the November 24 lows around 1150 imho

but as always, this is just my humble observation and no advice to trade against the trend

ZNGA opens at $11.
Bankers make $1 net at open ...

pady wrote:Yesterday's post...

A=1210 - 1225.6
B=1225.6 - 1216 ( .618*A)
C=1216 - 1231

Now it is all downhill from here...1150 here we come.

Don't believe too much into elliot crap. Have you ever watch that commercial by All State about the GPS? That's how I think of Elliot waves.

Turn Left, now, recalculating, turn right now, recalculating. That's exactly how I feel about Elliot Waves. You wavers change your mind more than I change my underwear.

pady wrote:Yesterday's post...

A=1210 - 1225.6
B=1225.6 - 1216 ( .618*A)
C=1216 - 1231

Now it is all downhill from here...1150 here we come.

SKIS ON ! ! ! Nice call! jimme

tdo722 wrote:

pady wrote:Yesterday's post...

A=1210 - 1225.6
B=1225.6 - 1216 ( .618*A)
C=1216 - 1231

Now it is all downhill from here...1150 here we come.

Don't believe too much into elliot crap. Have you ever watch that commercial by All State about the GPS? That's how I think of Elliot waves.

Turn Left, now, recalculating, turn right now, recalculating. That's exactly how I feel about Elliot Waves. You wavers change your mind more than I change my underwear.

Once a week?...

HappyFriday wrote:Why not even one analyst downgrades RIMM to sell rating ? They are just lower down the target price.
Does it mean something ??

This means when the infamous Laszlo Biriny touts a buy on a stock, you can SELL it SHORT with 100% confidence

rola wrote:They are not so excited in Europe (DAX, CAC..), like in America....

Europe is a long-term short. US is sideways or up next few years, then long-term short. US is currently dropping because of Europe.

Also important: who does your order-entry-firm clear through? (will tell us who is controlling those floodgates)
PAGING OTHER FOLKS: FIND OUT WHO YOUR FIRM CLEARS THEIR TRADES THROUGH.
One minute phone call to your broker: “Who do you clear your trades through…oh, u don’t know…please ask your manager, I’ll hold…”
Answer will be either “self clearing” (meaning they own their own seat on the NYSE floor; they clear their own trades), or they give u the name of the “squid” they use for clearing. If the answer is something like “Broadcourt” etc., that u’ve never heard of…MAKE THEM TELL U (PLEASE) who that is (eg: who owns Broadcourt? It’s the wholly owned clearing-firm-subsidary of Merill Lynch/BAC).
KNOW WHO EXECUTES YOUR TRADES ON THE FLOORS/COMPUTERS.
PS: all the above = equities only (I know squat about futures)



My broker and I are working on a retirement plan. Unfortunately, it's his!

BullBear52x wrote:Also important: who does your order-entry-firm clear through? (will tell us who is controlling those floodgates)
PAGING OTHER FOLKS: FIND OUT WHO YOUR FIRM CLEARS THEIR TRADES THROUGH.
One minute phone call to your broker: “Who do you clear your trades through…oh, u don’t know…please ask your manager, I’ll hold…”
Answer will be either “self clearing” (meaning they own their own seat on the NYSE floor; they clear their own trades), or they give u the name of the “squid” they use for clearing. If the answer is something like “Broadcourt” etc., that u’ve never heard of…MAKE THEM TELL U (PLEASE) who that is (eg: who owns Broadcourt? It’s the wholly owned clearing-firm-subsidary of Merill Lynch/BAC).
KNOW WHO EXECUTES YOUR TRADES ON THE FLOORS/COMPUTERS.
PS: all the above = equities only (I know squat about futures)



My broker and I are working on a retirement plan. Unfortunately, it's his!

thanks

proteus46 wrote:Sold my DGP, +2.56%

That was probably a big mistake, but who cares