Cobra's Market View

THE START of ANOTHER 65 DAY RALLY?

Ok. So today looks no different than the start of every other multi-month rally we've had since August. This looks like first trading session in January, first trading session in September, first trading session in December first trading session in February. Hell this even looks like the exact bottom we had in the November correction.

After seeing this over and over and over and over again. What do we do now? What do the insane do?

The best trade to be made here is clearly on the long side and here's why. If you go long and you're right that this is just like every other beginning to these 60 day rallies, then you're in for a massive gain. You just long this shit until the first 150 down day.

Now lets suppose you're wrong. What's the worst case. If you see the market fall below last Thursday's low, then get the fuck out. Just sell your longs.

So risk/reward is where? A potential move to 1420 or 90 points+ gains versus a potential loss of 15-30 points. Hell if we get a harsh down day, then it's clear this isn't exactly the same because in the previous rallies we saw multi-day moves up up and away. So if tomorrow, the S&P is down 10 points, then GTFO.

So the risk / reward is CLEARLY to the upside right now. That's my 2 cents. Get long, and GTFO on the first sign of weakness.

My intuition tells me this market doesn't want to see any serious selling pressure until we test 1500 on the S&P 500. That should be around the end of QE2 and put in a triple top to this market.

Simsonic wrote:This is a melt up. Support is building for the bulls. If this holds and no new bad news from Libya, expect some explosive moves upwards.

andyzaky wrote:THE START of ANOTHER 65 DAY RALLY?

My intuition tells me this market doesn't want to see any serious selling pressure until we test 1500 on the S&P 500. That should be around the end of QE2 and put in a triple top to this market.

I think we get a pullback in the may june time frame but you are right - triple top is a sure thing baring a suitcase nuke.

zombiebraingoo wrote:Every bull is aware that Gaddafi is at large and that he might play all kinds of games this weekend.

Gaddafi is doing exactly what he is supposed to do - drive the price of oil up and give the Pentagon a reason to expand our wars...



engineering chaos so as to provide a solution! Remember Bush met with and reconciled with Gaddfi - you can believe this was all started then and there.


On Monday, Gaddafi accomplished one of history's great diplomatic turnarounds when Secretary of State Condeleezza Rice announced that the U.S. was restoring full diplomatic relations with Libya

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... z1FYyKOYQw[/quote]

I guess you like conspiracy theories... So far Gaddafi and Bush never met. But they might meet some day. Mars believes they'll meet in heaven, pax alleges they'll meet in hell.

Another Possibility beside super Bullish version.

Funny, market pretends not to see oil up. Perhaps $150 oil is good news now?

Cobra wrote:Funny, market pretends not to see oil up. Perhaps $150 oil is good news now?

Last time when the oil was 150, the stock market was all time high

andyzaky wrote:THE START of ANOTHER 65 DAY RALLY?

Ok. So today looks no different than the start of every other multi-month rally we've had since August. This looks like first trading session in January, first trading session in September, first trading session in December first trading session in February. Hell this even looks like the exact bottom we had in the November correction.

After seeing this over and over and over and over again. What do we do now? What do the insane do?

The best trade to be made here is clearly on the long side and here's why. If you go long and you're right that this is just like every other beginning to these 60 day rallies, then you're in for a massive gain. You just long this shit until the first 150 down day.

Now lets suppose you're wrong. What's the worst case. If you see the market fall below last Thursday's low, then get the fuck out. Just sell your longs.

So risk/reward is where? A potential move to 1420 or 90 points+ gains versus a potential loss of 15-30 points. Hell if we get a harsh down day, then it's clear this isn't exactly the same because in the previous rallies we saw multi-day moves up up and away. So if tomorrow, the S&P is down 10 points, then GTFO.

So the risk / reward is CLEARLY to the upside right now. That's my 2 cents. Get long, and GTFO on the first sign of weakness.

My intuition tells me this market doesn't want to see any serious selling pressure until we test 1500 on the S&P 500. That should be around the end of QE2 and put in a triple top to this market.

I'm afraid I might have to agree with you!

IWM don't get exciting like the others.

I guess you like conspiracy theories... So far Gaddafi and Bush never met. But they might meet some day. Mars believes they'll meet in heaven, pax alleges they'll meet in hell.

[/quote]

youre right Bush didn't meet with him but Rice did after Bush made nice with him. Same difference really for the purposes of getting the American People behind another military intervention since the jig is up on Irag, Afghanastan and Iran. The Problem Rection Solution model is still actively persued by the oligarchy to get fear based consensus in the US.

Rice visited Libya and met with Gaddafi as part of a North African tour...
http://www.google.com/search?q=Rice+vis ... nu&ie=&oe=

q2model wrote:

Cobra wrote:Funny, market pretends not to see oil up. Perhaps $150 oil is good news now?

Last time when the oil was 150, the stock market was all time high

You got to be kidding me. Now the oil press is higher than when the SPX was at the all time high!

SPX
Well...an almost picture perfect Diamond.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/spx_1237.html

An interesting discussion today is in what ways is this day similar and which ways this day is different then every other start to these melt-up rallies we've seen since August. How is today really different? Is there some key difference. If there isn't, then today should signal a "get long bitches" day.

zombiebraingoo wrote:

I guess you like conspiracy theories... So far Gaddafi and Bush never met. But they might meet some day. Mars believes they'll meet in heaven, pax alleges they'll meet in hell.

youre right Bush didn't meet with him but Rice did after Bush made nice with him. Same difference really for the purposes of getting the American People behind another military intervention since the jig is up on Irag, Afghanastan and Iran. The Problem Rection Solution model is still actively persued by the oligarchy to get fear based consensus in the US.

and that's no theory!

Rice visited Libya and met with Gaddafi as part of a North African tour...
http://www.google.com/search?q=Rice+vis ... nu&ie=&oe=[/quote]

andyzaky wrote:An interesting discussion today is in what ways is this day similar and which ways this day is different then every other start to these melt-up rallies we've seen since August. How is today really different? Is there some key difference. If there isn't, then today should signal a "get long bitches" day.

the only difference is that all the indexes are stuck right now at long term resistence trendlines.

spx is slightly above and looks like it wants to move - the key is that none of my indicators are bearish really - a couple have dipped but are more whipsaw than down...

I be bullish but that's just me.

zombiebraingoo wrote:

andyzaky wrote:An interesting discussion today is in what ways is this day similar and which ways this day is different then every other start to these melt-up rallies we've seen since August. How is today really different? Is there some key difference. If there isn't, then today should signal a "get long bitches" day.

the only difference is that all the indexes are stuck right now at long term resistence trendlines.

spx is slightly above and looks like it wants to move - the key is that none of my indicators are bearish really - a couple have dipped but are more whipsaw than down...

I be bullish but that's just me.

Agreed. Look at this. I think we're getting a rally ahead. One last massive QE2 rally before the storm in May / June.

yup - here it comes!

So bar under the same trend line.
The little bigger picture is to test the previous high now.

No doubt, critical juncture today. cash is king, save your ammo for big day to come.

Cobra wrote:Funny, market pretends not to see oil up. Perhaps $150 oil is good news now?

People feel they will have to get used to it, until seeing $147, again.