02/24/2012 Intraday Watering

[fehro]

next stop 1410ish? ... or red dotted trendline on SPX60m?

[Cobra]

guess, until our poll shows no bears, then this market is topped.

[jarbo456]

guess, until our poll shows no bears, then this market is topped.

you mean, hasn't topped?

until poll shows no bears, then the market still hasn't topped...is what you mean right?

[Cobra]

guess, until our poll shows no bears, then this market is topped.

you mean, hasn't topped?

until poll shows no bears, then the market still hasn't topped...is what you mean right?

yes

[BullBear52x]

guess, until our poll shows no bears, then this market is topped.

you mean, hasn't topped?

until poll shows no bears, then the market still hasn't topped...is what you mean right?

You have to go long without taking profit to hold up this market, only fund manager who is trading others money will long while he bails his own account.

[Al_Dente]

UCO
DGP
NUGT
Squeeze starting?

[SWalsh]

And without my knowing it as I discussed it yesterday, the guy who stole the trading code from Goldman Sachs was scheduled for an appeal and he is going to walk out of jail on those charges as per an Appellate Court ruling.

IT and espionage on Wall Street
Cracking the penal code
An overturned conviction creates uncertainty about what constitutes a crime

Feb 25th 2012 | New York | from the print edition

ASK a programmer at an investment bank where he works, and the answer will often simply be “Wall Street”. Isolated from clients and—it was once thought—assets with proprietary value, technologists bounce from firm to firm, from one high-rise building to another.

To this footloose community, the case of Sergey Aleynikov, a Goldman Sachs programmer, came as a shock. Mr Aleynikov was convicted in December 2010 of stealing code tied to Goldman’s lucrative high-speed proprietary-trading operations for use by a new employer. On February 16th, after he had spent nearly a year in prison, three judges in a federal appeals court unanimously reversed his conviction in a hearing that lasted just a single morning. Their written opinion is now eagerly awaited.

Mr Aleynikov admitted to taking code with him on his way out of Goldman, but argued successfully that this did not constitute a crime, or, to be more specific, a federal crime. He benefited from the help of a thorough lawyer, who adroitly knocked down two key claims. Because the computer trading system was not licensed or offered for sale, claimed Kevin Marino, the defendant’s lawyer, it was not a product to be bought or sold for interstate commerce, a key provision for a federal case. Because computer coding constitutes intangible intellectual property, Mr Marino said, it did not qualify under the goods, wares or merchandise components that are protected under the corporate-espionage act. The judges quickly accepted these arguments.

More at The Economist: http://www.economist.com/node/21548252

[waverider]

Sheesh how come no one told me about premiums before this VIX guy? Useful stuff.

[jimme]

next stop 1410ish? ... or red dotted trendline on SPX60m?

Nice chart again. Are you long? jimme

[SWalsh]

USO retreating

high gas prices are bad for Obama, don't expect oil to keep ripping short term.

Is the VIX double bottoming? Bottom of the BB on the daily

Gas prices triggered the sub-prime crisis via disposable income collapasing. Now, mortgages are sold to many with essentially no money down but they have to take-out insurance; as if that is the panacea. The problem is that the premiums in no way can cover defaults should even 20% begin to become late on payments.

I guess there is an inverse product that GS not only holds, but marketed.

[Petsamo]

I had the opinion that oil will keep a cap on SPY. Somehow, SPY managed to sneak to the up side without oil trailing it. The following chart is USO / SPY x 320. USO has plenty of room to rise until it becomes a problem. The highest point is 116, made on 4/5/10.



The chart above is between 6/23/10 to yesterday 2/23/12.

[uempel]

SPX doesn't seem to care when it falls below the trendline:

[jarbo456]

I had the opinion that oil will keep a cap on SPY. Somehow, SPY managed to sneak to the up side without oil trailing it. The following chart is USO / SPY x 320. USO has plenty of room to rise until it becomes a problem. The highest point is 116, made on 4/5/10.



The chart above is between 6/23/10 to yesterday 2/23/12.

yeah, i was stopped out of my USO trade i made this morning. oil looks like it might want to touch 110 before the weekend.

[SWalsh]

WE...CANNOT...HAVE...MARKET...IN...RED...

I would assume that in an election year, and especially this one, all the chips are going to be called in to rally the market to use it as a talking point. It won't mean a thing to the majority of those who are voting for Obama, but preventing reality from striking is going to be Job One as they can't afford people coming into the election down 20% on their 401K because it is a long-held tenet of elections that people vote their wallet!

[waverider]

hmm record contango levels on VIX-optionsmonster

[uempel]

Update:

PS: I'm short

[dumamay]

WE...CANNOT...HAVE...MARKET...IN...RED...

I would assume that in an election year, and especially this one, all the chips are going to be called in to rally the market to use it as a talking point. It won't mean a thing to the majority of those who are voting for Obama, but preventing reality from striking is going to be Job One as they can't afford people coming into the election down 20% on their 401K because it is a long-held tenet of elections that people vote their wallet!

That's if they turnout. One of the reasons we have bozo's in DC is poor turnout.

[bbc]

hmm record contango levels on VIX-optionsmonster

not really,

Low 07/14/04 -4.98


current? > -4

[SWalsh]

(2) what mental processes does the student need to apply to actually do this 5 min stuff day in and out and stay focused in the right areas. (what does the student need to do to concentrate that is not taught in the book)

I'd say that without fully understanding two books by Mark Douglas, "The Disciplined Trader" and also "Trading in the Zone", none of the other facts matter.

Trading is not about being right or wrong. It is about defining "an edge". Once you have, for you, an "edge" you can live with that you 100% believe will profit over time, every trade is taken with no exceptions for you never know which one is a major profit. Money managers work this way in that they allot units to each market. But they do throw the "OFF SWITCH" on some that they feel are generating false setups that are merely picking their pocket. I think that was done here in the aftermath of August 9th to October 4th and they creamed the funds a half-dozen times.

Now, the problem is that many "edges" no longer work. The market has been significantly changed and if anything, those edges are part of the components to ascertain the positions in the markets and the HFTs act accordingly.

[uempel]

Bounce at 67?