04/05/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

don't get confused by my comments, I'll maintain the bull target. it'd go like this.

[uempel]

Does anybody on this board follow the 60-min and 15-min MACD's ?

Yes, but not with SPX. Work quite well with the DAX and SMI futures over at Eurex.

[Cobra]

double top target.

Cobra, upside nullified? Thanks!

just explained.

[ctu688]

Hi Cobra,

I am planning to buy a camera from Amazon and don't remember how to go there from your site so you can get some beneficent.

Ctu

[Cobra]

Hi Cobra,

I am planning to buy a camera from Amazon and don't remember how to go there from your site so you can get some beneficent.

Ctu

Thanks, it's here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/support ... azon-link/

[stucap]

Is it me or bulls switched roles with bears? Till a few days ago we would have a down move at the open followed by an up drift all day. Or just everybody is on holiday?

Is that not what we have today? A down move reversed, slow trend upwards? Maybe a bit more choppy than normal but still an uptrend since open...

[Cobra]

hopefully for bulls a bullish falling wedge here.

[noob]

double top target.

Cobra, upside nullified? Thanks!

just explained.

Thanks Cobra, seems up leg started before down target reached.

[fehro]

trendlines... 1382? bear flag? wave 5 down?

[noob]

hopefully for bulls a bullish falling wedge here.

Thanks Cobra, I'm wondering why this is viewed as a falling wedge, instead of handle in a bigger frame or bull flag. Thanks!

[fehro]

or are we forming a complex H&S?... right shoulder? then sell in May?.... neckline subject to revision... depending on where we bounce.

[Cobra]

hopefully for bulls a bullish falling wedge here.

Thanks Cobra, I'm wondering why this is viewed as a falling wedge, instead of handle in a bigger frame or bull flag. Thanks!

it's the same.

[Al_Dente]

Bots just woke up
Sold then bought

Willie as a boy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxWKILBo ... re=related

[noob]

hopefully for bulls a bullish falling wedge here.

Thanks Cobra, I'm wondering why this is viewed as a falling wedge, instead of handle in a bigger frame or bull flag. Thanks!

it's the same.

Thanks, why is the upleg not coming? So bored. Gogogo.

[KeiZai]

Reading time market is boring,

astro long term article:

Most people simply don’t know anything about the complexity of astrology, its history, or the fact that the system of symbolism and prediction is based on observation by literally millions of practitioners over thousands of years.
It is simply a clearly demonstrable fact that trading The Moods of The Moon - the monthly phases of the lunar cycle - produces steady and reliable profits across any long-term timeframe.
And many of those same dismissive readers will happily fork out bundles of boodle to be trained in Gann techniques, or take notice of the Bradley Model turn dates - without having a clue that both are deeply rooted in astrological aspects.

It is a monthly of the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average and shows the statistical tendency worked perfectly at the 1999/2000 top, the 2002/03 bottom, the 2007 blow-off and the March, 2009 bottom.

The warning signals from the research are clear. If the historical tendency plays out as usual, Wall Street is reaching a peak in early 2012 and heading into a Bear market which could last until mid-2014.

In fact, the late Aries peak expected by the research data did play out on schedule in May, 2011. You’ll notice the price bars on the DJIA peaked just before the dark green solid bars which identify when Jupiter changed signs to Taurus and that the index is currently challenging that level again.

Since the May 2011 peak, Jupiter has been moving Direct and Retrograde in the early degrees of Taurus.
When I first published this chart in my Forecast 2012 early in January, I warned the position of Jupiter allowed a final rally into the first few weeks of March.
Now, the research shows a statistical tendency … not a cast-iron guarantee.
While the formula played out exactly from 1999 to 2009, there have been a few times when rallies have briefly exceeded the Jupiter in Taurus limit before diving into a Leo Bear bottom.

And 1929 was one of them.

We could consider that the blow-off rally past Taurus was the technical equivalent of “a false break”. And one of the rules of a failed false break pattern is that the reversal is large and sharp, regardless of whether the break is a high or a low.

The dive into the red Jupiter in Leo bars is as obvious as the recovery rally which peaked as Jupiter again left his home sign of Sagittarius and the DJIA dropped into the first trough of a double-bottom pattern that sparked the multi-decade Bull market into the 2000/2007 peaks.

The two previous charts have shown exactly how The Jupiter Cycle performed from the late 20s to the early 40s and the late 90s to early 00s.

What is interesting to observe is how the tendency played out during the great sideways shuffle from the early 60s to 80s … and how similar that period seems to be to market performance since the 1999/2000 peak.

The comparison with current market behaviour is stunning. This 20-year timeframe last century was marked by sudden Bull rallies and equally sharp Bear plunges in quick succession.

And while the exact tops and bottoms fell outside the statistical tendency of The Jupiter Cycle, nevertheless there were consistent rallies into the Taurus and Sagittarius periods and sharp declines into the Leo and Aquarian periods.

Combined, the three charts show why extreme care is needed maintaining Long positions as we go further into 2012.

We are moving into the long-term negative tendency of Jupiter moving out of early Taurus and towards Leo, where he will take up residence from the second half of 2014 until June, 2015.

We are entering the exact timeframe of another long-range negative astrological aspect - Uranus square Pluto, an aspect which last occurred at the bottom of the 1929-1932 crash - and the first exact hit of that aspect occurs this year in June and will continue until March, 2015.

On a technical level, Jupiter’s orbit of the Sun corresponds broadly with three and four year “cycles” in the markets. The Old God’s journey through the zodiac takes 12 years.

In my weekly columns I constantly caution readers against allowing astrological expectations to override the commonsense technical conditions shown by the current state of the charts.

Accurate astrological prediction is as much a skill as it is the result of many years of study and empirical research.

Nevertheless, it’s why W.D. Gann has a large worldwide following, decades after his death - and why J.P. Morgan had the renowned astrologer, Evangeline Adams, on his payroll.
EDIT: John Pierpont Morgan gives his opinion on Astroeconomics: "Millionaires don't use Astrology, billionaires do!

wrote by Ashbourne, March 1,2012
..................................................................................................................................................

Have a great long weekend everyone!!

[Cobra]

Reading time market is boring,

astro long term article:

Most people simply don’t know anything about the complexity of astrology, its history, or the fact that the system of symbolism and prediction is based on observation by literally millions of practitioners over thousands of years.
It is simply a clearly demonstrable fact that trading The Moods of The Moon - the monthly phases of the lunar cycle - produces steady and reliable profits across any long-term timeframe.
And many of those same dismissive readers will happily fork out bundles of boodle to be trained in Gann techniques, or take notice of the Bradley Model turn dates - without having a clue that both are deeply rooted in astrological aspects.

Jupiter 1.png

It is a monthly of the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average and shows the statistical tendency worked perfectly at the 1999/2000 top, the 2002/03 bottom, the 2007 blow-off and the March, 2009 bottom.

The warning signals from the research are clear. If the historical tendency plays out as usual, Wall Street is reaching a peak in early 2012 and heading into a Bear market which could last until mid-2014.

In fact, the late Aries peak expected by the research data did play out on schedule in May, 2011. You’ll notice the price bars on the DJIA peaked just before the dark green solid bars which identify when Jupiter changed signs to Taurus and that the index is currently challenging that level again.

Since the May 2011 peak, Jupiter has been moving Direct and Retrograde in the early degrees of Taurus.
When I first published this chart in my Forecast 2012 early in January, I warned the position of Jupiter allowed a final rally into the first few weeks of March.
Now, the research shows a statistical tendency … not a cast-iron guarantee.
While the formula played out exactly from 1999 to 2009, there have been a few times when rallies have briefly exceeded the Jupiter in Taurus limit before diving into a Leo Bear bottom.

And 1929 was one of them.

Jupiter 1928.png

We could consider that the blow-off rally past Taurus was the technical equivalent of “a false break”. And one of the rules of a failed false break pattern is that the reversal is large and sharp, regardless of whether the break is a high or a low.

The dive into the red Jupiter in Leo bars is as obvious as the recovery rally which peaked as Jupiter again left his home sign of Sagittarius and the DJIA dropped into the first trough of a double-bottom pattern that sparked the multi-decade Bull market into the 2000/2007 peaks.

The two previous charts have shown exactly how The Jupiter Cycle performed from the late 20s to the early 40s and the late 90s to early 00s.

What is interesting to observe is how the tendency played out during the great sideways shuffle from the early 60s to 80s … and how similar that period seems to be to market performance since the 1999/2000 peak.

Jupiter 1961 1984.png

The comparison with current market behaviour is stunning. This 20-year timeframe last century was marked by sudden Bull rallies and equally sharp Bear plunges in quick succession.

And while the exact tops and bottoms fell outside the statistical tendency of The Jupiter Cycle, nevertheless there were consistent rallies into the Taurus and Sagittarius periods and sharp declines into the Leo and Aquarian periods.

Combined, the three charts show why extreme care is needed maintaining Long positions as we go further into 2012.

We are moving into the long-term negative tendency of Jupiter moving out of early Taurus and towards Leo, where he will take up residence from the second half of 2014 until June, 2015.

We are entering the exact timeframe of another long-range negative astrological aspect - Uranus square Pluto, an aspect which last occurred at the bottom of the 1929-1932 crash - and the first exact hit of that aspect occurs this year in June and will continue until March, 2015.

On a technical level, Jupiter’s orbit of the Sun corresponds broadly with three and four year “cycles” in the markets. The Old God’s journey through the zodiac takes 12 years.

In my weekly columns I constantly caution readers against allowing astrological expectations to override the commonsense technical conditions shown by the current state of the charts.

Accurate astrological prediction is as much a skill as it is the result of many years of study and empirical research.

Nevertheless, it’s why W.D. Gann has a large worldwide following, decades after his death - and why J.P. Morgan had the renowned astrologer, Evangeline Adams, on his payroll.
..................................................................................................................................................

Have a great long weekend everyone!!

Wow, thanks.

[MrMiyagi]

Bollinger Bands narrowing on SPY 5 minutes; pop or drop baby.

[fundtrader]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the McClellan Oscillators for the NYSE and Nasdaq? Both are around the -50 area through yesterday's close. Don't we need to see them near +100 before a meaningful correction?

[MrMiyagi]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the McClellan Oscillators for the NYSE and Nasdaq? Both are around the -50 area through yesterday's close. Don't we need to see them near +100 before a meaningful correction?

+80 would do as well; it hasn't gone up like that in months! It has been consolidating, dropping going up consolidating.... lowest was -50 yesterday and a couple of weeks or so ago. This grinds volatility and bear ETFs.

[Xian]

Cobra,

Any thoughts on NFP?

Could it be a pivot point of some sort? What do you think a miss might do— chart-wise? Would a miss make sense for the 6.5% pullback you've been talking about? Would a beat signify this mini-pullback could be over?

Thanks in advance for any insights you may have. Very tricky with market closed tomorrow.