06/28/2012 Live Update

[Petsamo]

JPM's getting spanked

[TraderGirl]

if anyone cares...this is my good buddy's [GS Muni Bond Desk] read on the Stockton bankruptcy:

"Stockton is the latest headline. This one is pretty significant because it’s the largest city to file. (not bigger than Jeffco or orange county) but big nonetheless. What also makes it unique is that 366 days ago Stockton was rated A1. I think the market in general puts this in the Vallejo category. The one distinction tho is that Vallejo was largely caused by pension pressures, whereas stockton’s pensions were 89% funded as of 2010 (since they had done a pension obligation bond deal). I think obvi the next question is, “who’s” next……just like Vallejo, everyone is asking if there will be a whole wave of defaults. It really depends. Unfortunately, Stockton has no G.O. debt outstanding, and most of it’s bonds are Water, Sewer, lease backed, POBs, RDA/TABs, and Melloroos bonds. So with no G.O. bonds, we won’t get to see what happens in bankruptcy of bondholders vs. pensions, which was the same as Vallejo. Vallejo told us that pensions came out whole, lease backed bonds took a slight haircut, and OPEB got completely slashed. I would expect Stockton’s OPEB liability to get decimated. To me the lease backed and the POB debt is the most exposed hear, although with the caveat that I haven’t read through each lease document to understand the collateral/mortgage pledge/etc…….so it’s going to be hand to hand combat in the legal document trenches. Stockton Unified School Distrcit will probably get dragged down just via guilt by association, although they are completely different entities. At the end of the day, these events (Vallejo, Stockton) are really exposing the weakness of the cal lease structure (abatement risk, appropriation risk)……"

Thanks jarbo...

[RadVlad]

Cheif Roberts allows the mandate as a "taxing" ipso facto vehicle. Big Brother is getting ever so more worisome.

In a bizzare way I look forward to the day they try to take away guns.

If Obama is re-elected I expect at least a 200% excise tax (to fund the war) on all ammo purchases and components.

We can only hope your expectations are met! And, as a physician, I thank Obama for having a healthcare plan at last! Imperfect, but a start.

Don't worry, most Physicians know that obamacare worsens quality, increases cost of healthcare and adds weight to the sinking ship that is the USA. And some of us believe in freedom above "free"-healthcare.... As a fellow physician. Sorry for off topic. That had to be responded to!

[TraderGirl]

Dow estimate???

[gappy]

I think gold and silver might have seen much better days.

I read somewhere, sorry can't refer to, but that if we were to go back on the gold standard for currency, gold would be 7000/oz or so. China Central is scooping up all it can for all the right reasons and they are net short the dollar to boot according to a FT article. Smart plans!

... and all paper money and $ 000's on stock market will become nothing.... ?

China is just perpetuating the myth that is now transferring wealth. Playing the game hard. The bubble in gold is in the hype. The dollar is backed by a weakened but second to none economy. The promissary script will never be undercut to useless, not even past thermonuclear holocaust.

[SWalsh]

Cheif Roberts allows the mandate as a "taxing" ipso facto vehicle. Big Brother is getting ever so more worisome.

In a bizzare way I look forward to the day they try to take away guns.

If Obama is re-elected I expect at least a 200% excise tax (to fund the war) on all ammo purchases and components.

We can only hope your expectations are met! And, as a physician, I thank Obama for having a healthcare plan at last! Imperfect, but a start.

I know six physicians as my neighbor is one of them. At a party a few weeks ago they are selling their practice and retiring if this passes. They think it sucks already. All are ages 45-55. They will not work for the government and see patients while losing money. Most top docs will not stomach this. Most can make 3/4s, or more, of what they make teaching or working at some other company with a lot less stress. I have no idea what world you travel in, but they told me that every doctor they know is pissed off about telling them how to run their business and practice medicine. Of all people you know how hard you worked to get where you are. And a Chicago thug is going to sit in your office, essentially, and tell you how to practice medicine? I am shocked to read your thoughts when I have heard so many others tell me he has declared war on doctors.

[dr659]

I hope everyone is familiar with the increased taxes on everyone, but illegals, that will go into effect in January. Unless there is a stunning turnout from the Moral Majority (I think Nixon coinded that term) we might have a president for life.

The 1/4% trader tax that Europe wants and socialist government being elected? I have news for any day trader. You cannot trade with 1/2% of every trade you do is "taxed" to fund the bailouts. The mkts will die while "banks" get exemptions.

A lot of bad things just happened. And unless the republicans take both houses and can defund the "tax" that goes into this, if that is even possible, it's over. Socialism light, then socialism hard. Own stocks? No, sorry....won't do it.

didnt he refer to them as the " Silent Majority"

You're right...I might have confused Nixon with Jerry Falwell...

Easy to do, Or easier then one should think

[Al_Dente]

CLARKW
GREAT LINK THANK U VERY MUCH
I wonder what his “public opinion” sentiment reading is composed of?
""a select group of sentiment surveys""
[His P/C ratios look like uncredited Bernie Schaeffer’s ]
i really like his VISUAL cot

[MrMiyagi]

So who's going to save the market for Obama's re-election now?

[Tutti]

Hourly H&S working themselves out on the SPY, QQQ, DIA & IWM.

[gappy]

So who's going to save the market for Obama's re-election now?

From your lips to Benny's ear.

[gappy]

Funny, Romney speaks, the market ticks up, Potus speaks, the market ticks down.

[Cobra]

bot sell? key time, bear must break the blue line below to make a small double top.

[ClarkW]

CLARKW
GREAT LINK THANK U VERY MUCH
I wonder what his “public opinion” sentiment reading is composed of?
""a select group of sentiment surveys""
[His P/C ratios look like uncredited Bernie Schaeffer’s ]
i really like his VISUAL cot

I question the "public opinion" reading as well. Admittedly I just found the blog and don't read daily but what I've read so far is good info and I like the graphs as well. Just another nugget to help with trades.

[Xian]

This political chat board is getting a bit out of control. Can anyone recommend a good chat board dedicated to the intra-day movement of the financial markets?

[Cobra]

target, not sure.

[MrMiyagi]

TRIN at +1.07 is not very bearish despite the action of the market.

[Al_Dente]

thanks jarbo
I thought of u when I read matt taibbi’s latest.
On muni fraud [save for later; 7 pages]
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... a-20120620

[Richarab]

Gold leads
And I have been telling you
When 1550 breaks - I guess 1250
GC futures

No joke kids
Gold not tied to debt
+ no printing money
= rebalance
The irony
When gold gets below the 1550
It will hit 1400 in short order and then commodities index will be deflationary and we will print money - guaranteed

Oil included
It cannot go too low
While our dollar was de pegged from gold in Nixon era - out dollar is inversely pegged to the barrel

Thus crushed oil and gold equal money printing qe3- even in election year?!??
Hmmm


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I am here: http://tapatalk.com/map.php?z32xai

[Al_Dente]

bot sell? key time, bear must break the blue line below to make a small double top.

bot sell yes
then little buy (1 million) what, say, about 4 minutes ago or so