Cobra's Market View

ok in the home stretch... hope some of you guys bought into this 99% success rate /cl trade

Anaconda wrote:

cougar wrote:Hello Cobra, Anaconda, 99er and all Snake People!
I am back and see that you are active and doing great.
Going through some charts and some of the posts here…They are indeed helpful for getting back in the “trading mode”…

Welcome "home" and join the party... Interesting crossroads we're at. Itchy finger, waiting to pull the trigger on 1295. We may have a little more to go over that, but I feel safe in shorting there.

Yes... I am looking at this VIX (30 min) which suggests that we might find some support here (MM 2/8). But if we don't, no rush to short SPX !

Once you have done this long enough and you have the full aura of the force around you, you can definitely feel distribution.

Just kidding, I have no idea. Watch the indicators like a hawk and keep in mind that, at least in my experience, most retailers are bearish all the time and as fearful as they can be. Many thought we'd roll over any day between halloween and easter.

99er wrote:cheech: "How does a person "feel" distribution?"

Some one else on this board may know of a technical indicator or two but I think you can "feel" it when prices are consolidating but important indicators (for me, RSI, MACD and Stochastics) indicate an oversold position and prices "should" fall. Generally, there is a rounding pattern involved. If you stare at charts long enough, you'll know what I mean.

look at my eyes, how much longer I have to stare at the chart to get the break through.

BillyRipken wrote:Once you have done this long enough and you have the full aura of the force around you, you can definitely feel distribution.

Just kidding, I have no idea. Watch the indicators like a hawk and keep in mind that, at least in my experience, most retailers are bearish all the time and as fearful as they can be. Many thought we'd roll over any day between halloween and easter.

Best I can tell seasonality is pretty bullish until next week, so the bulls are way safer than bears for the coming days. Thursday is the only day they have an edge on a closing basis, but recently even the last two trading days of the month have been EXTREMELY bullish.

99er wrote:ES
We're there.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/es_9354.html

Hi 99,
Just a question regarding MACD... How high a rating do you give its predictive value? I find that it is coincidence
if it marks a turn exactly. For example, right now it (MACD) looks like the market is weakening and yet the IWM
just hit the highof the day as I am typing. - MACD did the cross on the 15 min chart.
Anyhow, just curious on your opinion if you have the time to respond.
Thanks!

PRI wrote:

99er wrote:ES
We're there.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/es_9354.html

Hi 99,
Just a question regarding MACD... How high a rating do you give its predictive value? I find that it is coincidence
if it marks a turn exactly. For example, right now it (MACD) looks like the market is weakening and yet the IWM
just hit the highof the day as I am typing. - MACD did the cross on the 15 min chart.
Anyhow, just curious on your opinion if you have the time to respond.
Thanks!

MACD is an indictor for amateurs, in my opinion. I think hedge funds actually use strategies that FADE these indicators because they know lots of retail traders use them. Stay away, use them for reference only, at best just to determine if you should stay in a trade or not.

ok my /es target has been reached for today's day trade. still keeping a swing on because i think we get to 1313...

for the fourth times. this is it right?

cheech wrote:

99er wrote:DaWay: "that green line up there if bull's in control"

The market makers would like everyone to see that line...so they have people to sell to. Caution Bulls.

You can feel the distribution.

How does a person "feel" distribution? Why does the market keep rising even when bearish comments keep being made? As traders one must believe the market can rally too.

You are absolutely right. But I do feel market all the time, found it more so with age advancing (trading or bio).

Need to add: Yes, that's why I make lines to tell me distribution or accumulation. One more scenario of course is 'goin through' lines. In this case my chart has Green lines define channel range, inside that range are sub-lines which can be d or a, while 'going thru' just exacerbate the prime moves. If we breakout the green channel, watch out bears (bulls, if breakdown).

agnosia wrote:ok my /es target has been reached for today's day trade. still keeping a swing on because i think we get to 1313...

Nice. My short is back on.

PRI:

I like the MACD histogram but rely on chart patterns to make decisions.

cheech:

I am an amateur.

Wow. look at the volume...Classis bear flag. Still waiting for the 1300 to hit.

Anaconda wrote:

agnosia wrote:ok my /es target has been reached for today's day trade. still keeping a swing on because i think we get to 1313...

Nice. My short is back on.

sweet ... good luck to you sir. keep stops tight, i think this rally is much more than window dressing now since everyone thinks the greece problem is solved... hopefully the vote won't go through

PRI

I like Japanese candlesticks too. Like the topping candle on the 15-minute SPX chart.

overshot, volume surge, but bears need at least a L1 to start a pullback. I still believe we'll have a 2 legged pullback before the close. that said, there're exceptions sometimes, that the market ignore my statistics. Today is already one of the exceptions, but even exception has the limit... Let's wait and see.

I noticed that Siemens (SI) was the object of a naïve discussion between some talking heads, on CNBC.
But one should consider it to be a good indicator of the German mood, independent of the Merkel-Turtle’s pumping. It looks like it is ready to fall from its up channel, after it dropped under 2 converging and soon to cross significant MAs….. Pretty bearish chart, IMO.

agnosia wrote:

Anaconda wrote:

agnosia wrote:ok my /es target has been reached for today's day trade. still keeping a swing on because i think we get to 1313...

Nice. My short is back on.

sweet ... good luck to you sir. keep stops tight, i think this rally is much more than window dressing now since everyone thinks the greece problem is solved... hopefully the vote won't go through

I don't think the risk/reward is attractive to short at the end of June, not to mention today's market.

Cobra, V5!

99er wrote:PRI:

I like the MACD histogram but rely on chart patterns to make decisions.

cheech:

I am an amateur.

Agree, the patterns/price is the way to go.
However I have found a few indicators/oscillators that are
extremely reliable - MACD just is not one. Although I have
only observed it on a default setting.