Cobra's Market View

MajorEasy wrote:

cheech » Tue Jul 05, 2011 12:24 pm
SPY < 10 million shares traded in one hour confirmed bearish. Markets to collapse soon after.

sorry my charting service must be faulty, my charts don't agree.
many mid-day 1 hour bars are less than 10 million.

Yes, during times of weak demand for stocks there are many times this occurs, which explains why the market has been very weak in the past 4 months.

cheech wrote:A close beneath 1296 within the next 10 trading days is statistically guaranteed, which is a short point gain of 44 pts. Bulls have no such guarantees at this time.

I wanna have what you smoke in statistics

STC wrote:

cheech wrote:A close beneath 1296 within the next 10 trading days is statistically guaranteed, which is a short point gain of 44 pts. Bulls have no such guarantees at this time.

Hi cheech, can you present the statistic that there will be a close below 1296 within 10 days?

Take the close of the market 3 days prior to month end. For 24 months straight a close beneath that level occurred within two weeks. The S&P closed at 1296 3 days prior to month end, therefore the market will close beneath that level within the next 10 trading days.

keesa wrote:

cheech wrote:A close beneath 1296 within the next 10 trading days is statistically guaranteed, which is a short point gain of 44 pts. Bulls have no such guarantees at this time.

I wanna have what you smoke in statistics

The statistic is 24 for 24, see above. Learn the markets.

A (perhaps far-fetched) leading indicator based on Eurodollar predicts big correction between now and October.
http://wp.me/p1jbrN-a5

pidge66 wrote:

pidge66 wrote:close to breaking the 60 min up channel...

so the channel was broken. now we'll have exhaustion bounce backtesting the channel, breaking the HOD, and then I'm going to short the heck out of it.

I think just kiss the trendline goodbye at about 133.95 not HOD

cheech wrote:A close beneath 1296 within the next 10 trading days is statistically guaranteed, which is a short point gain of 44 pts. Bulls have no such guarantees at this time.

cheech,

since you're gaining so quickly in posts, i'll make a note of this "guarantee" and let's see how it does.

"Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your customer's sake, for your daughter's sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me." -- Tommy Boy

closed the Dow long at 12575 ( +30 )

next bar will be the key, a L2 would encourage bears and if indeed pullback from here, then we finally would see a little bit bigger pullback.

No L2, instead a reversal of reversal of reversal then confirmed by a higher high, bears pretty much over here. Next stop will be the intraday high.

Hey there, friends,
I've got a plan.
I think I see
A Hanging Man...

the next key point is the red line. failed before there or a little higher high then failed would be bad for bulls. decisively breakout then I don't know where on earth this market is going to stop the next.

Anaconda wrote:Hey there, friends,
I've got a plan.
I think I see
A Hanging Man...

it's not. I call that Doji or Spinning Top. Hanging Man must have a long tail.

I see daily backtest and 5min. backtest here, lots of testing this must be permanent set up

so far I see Rectangle here, so odds are higher for another push up.

Dow Trader wrote:closed the Dow long at 12575 ( +30 )

Look at you roll, what you do for a living? Congrats! good move.

Cobra wrote:

Anaconda wrote:Hey there, friends,
I've got a plan.
I think I see
A Hanging Man...

it's not. I call that Doji or Spinning Top. Hanging Man must have a long tail.

I defer to your superior technical skills. But, the broad definition is: "There are two pairs of single candlestick reversal patterns made up of a small real body, one long shadow and one short or non-existent shadow. Generally, the long shadow should be at least twice the length of the real body, which can be either black or white." Taken in conjunction with sentiment, declining volume (exhaustion?) and Cheech's interesting volume call, I'm going to take a flyer on shorting the market, if we haven't had significant change in movement by close.
A.

QQQ 30 min chart, or “why I do not short an overbought QQQ… yet”.
Instead of further explanations, I will point out at the usefulness in this situation, of the “Inverted Fisher”, that one of our friends here was laughing about a few days ago, suggesting that it was “out of fashion“…

WhyNot:

Looks great!

http://www.gooporto.com/

BullBear52x wrote:

Dow Trader wrote:closed the Dow long at 12575 ( +30 )

Look at you roll, what you do for a living? Congrats! good move.

thanks,
I am civil Eng. but since 2006 I am a full time trader .. I do trading for a living ... I trade Dow, EUR, Oil