Cobra's Market View

Short signals for swing trade are triggered. We are likely to see market pulling back tomorrow.

possible gartley on 5 min es. my wishful thinking is going up to 1328ish then back down to 1322.
anyway i put a stop for my longs at 1323.75

show time

davros wrote:monster candle for GS today but hitting obvious resistance

Very nice, Davros! After all shorts cover, it will probably fall agian...

Gotta love divergence.
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/07/spx_6133.html

But love bikinis more.
Have a good one.

cougar wrote:

JackA wrote:

Cobra wrote:

JackA wrote:Hi Everyone,

My first post on the blog although I have been reading the blog for quite a while. I have been a part of many other communities in the past but I think this is the best one so far, people here are genuinely encouraging.

Coming to the "BTW", I am in a deep hole with GOOG and need some help. I would like to know what you think of GOOG in short term (I hold quite a lot of Aug 15 calls in loss, I was hoping this to be a breakaway gap but now I am concerned if it could be an exhaustion gap and might get filled before Aug 15). Any help would be much appreciated.

Thanks,
J

Welcome aboard!

As for GOOG, I don't see anything yet, so don't know, may someone else knows something?

Thanks Cobra, I don't see a breakdown either but there is a lot of PUT buying going on today...not sure whats going on.

JA: R U sure of the GOOG Exp date Aug 15?
Which strike?
Now, simple TA: after completing a 100% extension…GOOG needs a rest. Next step up, on my scale is too far up (639).
No advise on what to do…

Hi Jack. With respect to GOOG, I dont undetstand why your calls are at a loss ? If you held prior to eranings u should have been up. If you bought after earnings, maybe u bought too early and volatility returned to normal.

I hold Aug Goog callz but i trade in an out v v quickly. Example, I close my goog callz yday for a nice profit but I reloaded today at 595ish. GOOG is in a consolidation pattern now and is building a pattern and I expect a retest of 630 v v soon. You could roll into Sep calls to avoid theta damage if ur planning on holding for a long term. USually with front month or couple of months to expiration , I would sell quick if I made some money . Have a target and close wen reached. Dont worry about the rest coz a winning trade is a winning trade and there are ALWAYS opportunities in this market.

I usually post a lot of option trade ideas in this forum and all have worked out v v nicely with over 40% profit (with the exception of SINA but I expect it will take a few days to work oout ).

Look out for my posts. I am v v (insert v v x 100 ) busy today so cant trade much .

Good luck!

PS. Hi Cobrrrraaaaa!!!!

Cobra wrote:nothing to say, boring. My guess is this is the last push up to test yesterday's high with either higher high or lower high, then we'll see a meaningful pullback.

I could see a bigger pullback to setup the short term charts better. A dip to 131.40 - 131.60 could setup an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern with a target of 136.50 on completion. A dip to 131.60 area would make trading more interesting, but I am not holding my breath. How they flip the switch from whipsaw city to buy every 3 point dip is beyond me.

not sure if this is the start of pullback.

hi cobra.

any thoughts of silver ?
Bullish day today ...gap up tomorrow ?

im short AGQ (Ultra Silver ) so trying to figure out what to do ....my stop is at 212

AK84 wrote:hi cobra.

any thoughts of silver ?
Bullish day today ...gap up tomorrow ?

im short AGQ (Ultra Silver ) so trying to figure out what to do ....my stop is at 212

still tough call. not bearish though.

There may be a debt deal. They're talking it over now.

AK84 wrote:Hi Jack. With respect to GOOG, I dont undetstand why your calls are at a loss ? If you held prior to eranings u should have been up. If you bought after earnings, maybe u bought too early and volatility returned to normal.

I hold Aug Goog callz but i trade in an out v v quickly. Example, I close my goog callz yday for a nice profit but I reloaded today at 595ish. GOOG is in a consolidation pattern now and is building a pattern and I expect a retest of 630 v v soon. You could roll into Sep calls to avoid theta damage if ur planning on holding for a long term. USually with front month or couple of months to expiration , I would sell quick if I made some money . Have a target and close wen reached. Dont worry about the rest coz a winning trade is a winning trade and there are ALWAYS opportunities in this market.

I usually post a lot of option trade ideas in this forum and all have worked out v v nicely with over 40% profit (with the exception of SINA but I expect it will take a few days to work oout ).

Look out for my posts. I am v v (insert v v x 100 ) busy today so cant trade much .

Good luck!

PS. Hi Cobrrrraaaaa!!!!

That's exactly what happened I bot them just after the earnings, and with the 50% continuation gap up rule http://www.hardrightedge.com/wheel/hregaps2.htm ...i was expecting it to move up quickly to 625. I guess with AAPL earning coming today i got too aggressive and bought too many. For now I took the loss and moved half of my calls to DEC'11.

Thanks for responding, I will look out for your calls. Are you playing FFIV or QCOM earnings today?

So we are stuck here to wait for those people's words?

hi, cobra and everyone.

first time commenter here. been trying to learn as much as i can from the forum but i have no input because i'm new to trading.

question for you, cobra. you mentioned before that reversals of reversals of reversals are a sign of a trend change. does the spy action from 7/12 to 7/19 qualify?

thanks.

PPO, 10 day before ER! They usually beat the Street.
Great company, quite honest management and a “technical stock”.
But…you never know!
====
I am long PPO. First bought it at $22, when GS enforced my bullish view!
Sometimes, even GS can be trusted…

hho wrote:hi, cobra and everyone.

first time commenter here. been trying to learn as much as i can from the forum but i have no input because i'm new to trading.

question for you, cobra. you mentioned before that reversals of reversals of reversals are a sign of a trend change. does the spy action from 7/12 to 7/19 qualify?

thanks.

No

i think the market will try another high, for so many times a sudden drop was bought, so probably today's is not an exception.

JackA wrote:

AK84 wrote:Hi Jack. With respect to GOOG, I dont undetstand why your calls are at a loss ? If you held prior to eranings u should have been up. If you bought after earnings, maybe u bought too early and volatility returned to normal.

I hold Aug Goog callz but i trade in an out v v quickly. Example, I close my goog callz yday for a nice profit but I reloaded today at 595ish. GOOG is in a consolidation pattern now and is building a pattern and I expect a retest of 630 v v soon. You could roll into Sep calls to avoid theta damage if ur planning on holding for a long term. USually with front month or couple of months to expiration , I would sell quick if I made some money . Have a target and close wen reached. Dont worry about the rest coz a winning trade is a winning trade and there are ALWAYS opportunities in this market.

I usually post a lot of option trade ideas in this forum and all have worked out v v nicely with over 40% profit (with the exception of SINA but I expect it will take a few days to work oout ).

Look out for my posts. I am v v (insert v v x 100 ) busy today so cant trade much .

Good luck!

PS. Hi Cobrrrraaaaa!!!!

That's exactly what happened I bot them just after the earnings, and with the 50% continuation gap up rule http://www.hardrightedge.com/wheel/hregaps2.htm ...i was expecting it to move up quickly to 625. I guess with AAPL earning coming today i got too aggressive and bought too many. For now I took the loss and moved half of my calls to DEC'11.

Thanks for responding, I will look out for your calls. Are you playing FFIV or QCOM earnings today?

No problem. Not playting FFIV or QCOM . I feel like the options are too expensive and I usually trade the breakout direction. FFIV is sitting at weekly 50dma at 111. looks like IHS on daily but then again al lthis doesnt matter in light of earnings and how investors react to it .

Case in point ...WYNN from yday . Awesome earnings.....gapped up ...closed in red. down today. double top from 2007 possibly ....everyone who bought options day before earnings probably lost on the vol crush . same with aapl today. Trade the direction I'd say. I bought some AAPL 400 puts today expiring friday and made a cool 1200 in 20 mins. id rather do that and be sure of my trade that guess where its gonna go post earnings unless im fairly certain,....

In my honest opinion FFIV looks like a buy to me if i were playing earnings but dont hold me to it .....

Cobra wrote:

hho wrote:hi, cobra and everyone.

first time commenter here. been trying to learn as much as i can from the forum but i have no input because i'm new to trading.

question for you, cobra. you mentioned before that reversals of reversals of reversals are a sign of a trend change. does the spy action from 7/12 to 7/19 qualify?

thanks.

No

would you kindly elaborate pls? thanks.

ok, make an exception today.