Cobra's Market View

Should there be bull-friendly comments by the Fed the initial rally might go way up to 1170... This would be just as crazy as last week's drop:

wow guys, news says aapl just surpass xom, and now is the largest US company in term of market cap.

fuddleduddle wrote:I guess everyone is waiting for the FOMC notes to release. In the meantime the markets remain in this sideways motion. Anyone else passing time and watched Barney Frank let one out? Can't believe he did it so aggressively.

Anyways hold on everyone and stay nimble.

oh-ho-ho, no way. gross. are you joking?

yellowreign wrote:

fuddleduddle wrote:I guess everyone is waiting for the FOMC notes to release. In the meantime the markets remain in this sideways motion. Anyone else passing time and watched Barney Frank let one out? Can't believe he did it so aggressively.

Anyways hold on everyone and stay nimble.

oh-ho-ho, no way. gross. are you joking?

Nope, it's on zerohedge if you're interested. A short 15 sec clip which won't waste too much of our lives.

Cobra wrote:a little disappointed in bulls, cannot believe for the very first resistance it takes this long and still cannot overcome it.

is it possible to retest overnight /ES lower if the bigBen did nothing?

Ben's not speaking today. I do not anticipate the Fed will give the markets anything today that will be worth a strong move up. In fact, I expect another sell-off after 2:15. The market is headed to 1020 over the coming days or weeks.

deeko wrote:Ben's not speaking today. I do not anticipate the Fed will give the markets anything today that will be worth a strong move up. In fact, I expect another sell-off after 2:15. The market is headed to 1020 over the coming days or weeks.

unlikely. the market is posed for a dip to 1115 level. that's for today. on a broader chart, we still have the overnight low of 1077 and 1050 area as major support. this yr people are expecting more on the jackson hole meeting, which will be held at the end of this month.

add: i borrowed a chart for quick explanation of my big picture view.

Looks like the market is already fading the news.
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_9964.html

nasa1100 wrote:

Cobra wrote:a little disappointed in bulls, cannot believe for the very first resistance it takes this long and still cannot overcome it.

is it possible to retest overnight /ES lower if the bigBen did nothing?

no idea.

As expected, some day-traders get out of their recent long positions before the Fed Show.
This creates a minor down….

nasa1100 wrote:

Cobra wrote:a little disappointed in bulls, cannot believe for the very first resistance it takes this long and still cannot overcome it.

is it possible to retest overnight /ES lower if the bigBen did nothing?

I don't think ben would say anything about QE3, other than he thinks the economy is fine, everything is fine.

I think it's a damn if you do or not with the FED. Another QE maa not be recieved that well, and looked upon as desperation (like it isn't:). Treaasureis are safer today with China inflation blowing up, so funds could see that as still a safe haven from equities despite the " downgrade".

With the timid action so far today, I see a bounce and drop myself, but hey...

long /cl 80, stop 79.99

QE3 would not be received well at all. The ball seems to be in Bernank's hands, but the immediate problems are still over in Greece and Italy. This month they have billions of debt due.

agnosia wrote:long /cl 80, stop 79.99

crap! 80 not even holding. means the overnight lows are in the cards. i'm selling my swing longs from last night...

Start Spreading The News...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqlJl1LfDP4

This market is all psychology right now. Panic sellers dump in the morning. Short sellers cover after that. The big round 1150 that caused the panic yesterday when it failed and drove the /ES to 1080 marked the line for other sellers to leave and get into cash.

The Fed Minutes aren't likely to spur a big rally, obviously just an opinion, but I think 1150-1160 area is too strong a resistance area now and the lows in the Futures and likely lower will be seen this month before things start to settle down.

I think lower because my bottom signal that has never failed me needs more time to trigger. It's currently sitting at 19 and needs to get to < 10 to say we're there. It only measures Closing Price and Time and it's the Time factor that's not there yet. The Price factor has been at 0 since 8/2.

I don't know why people mixing up FOMC meeting with QE3. I know someone mentiomed Zerohedge. Zerohedge has been many times wrong. the guy never say anything positive about anything even when the market was going in 2 years and people making money in past two years by buying bull efts. I quit reading his garbage articles.

Graceland

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_dtY0SM-NI

To watch the red candles by.

yesturday was one of the worest days in Dow history, traders do think we will go lower than yesrday's low soon !!! then it is more 100 points from here, they just have to have a proper trading strategy for that target
it is just following the basics and it will be easy target