Cobra's Market View

I've jumped the gun on my system and went short. I think there could be one more push up but I see 5 waves up for Wave 5 and with 1199 being 423.6% of Wave 1 I'll take my chance on being short for the larger degree Wave 2 pullback. If this market decides to make a running correction for that Wave 2 then it's likely a trend change and I'll be a Bull again, but I feel the odds are low for this, but feelings usually cost me lost profit.

uempel wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:guys, I think the market has topped

Yes Sir!

I will not feel good as a bear unless 118 is taken out.

uempel wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:guys, I think the market has topped

Yes Sir!

i hope so. the internals (the ones that al_dente uses...though he seems MIA today ) are tracking back to the bearish side...still think it's early to call the top, but i'm liking what i'm seeing. some follow through below this morning's breakout...

however, don't jinx it!

uempel wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:guys, I think the market has topped

Yes Sir!

I hope your both right.

I went short at 119.60.

Believe it or not. Still holding trapped 1/4 short.
Last night, my mechanical model gave a weak buy signal. That is most variables were soft but price momentum strong enough to compensate.
McClellan Oscillator and ARMs ratio seemed overbought at the same time.
So, I don't think the market will run away from me, and there should be a downdraft by the end of the week. Unclear how big it will be.
Downdraft will be used to close short and unwind hedges to go net long. Though I wish the buy signal were a bit more convincing.
Hedges have nice profit from July. Hopefully, downdraft can tip short into the plus column.
A stop is going on in case I am completely offbase here.

It can pop up once again if Slovakia gets the voting for Euro, but than will go down sharply.

uempel wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:guys, I think the market has topped

Yes Sir!

full moon reversal to 1010?

uempel wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:note to self: don't be short into a holiday monday...

over 4 handles in the pain since taking my short position into the weekend.

some guys have to be capitulating soon...marking the top perhaps??

My short term Fibs show that 1200.30 could be the top, presumably some guys decided to put the high 1 handle lower...

Okay, uempel talked me into it. Another 25% short for a total so far 50% has been done. Weee!

rising wedge support coming up....

Waiting to see what happens when SPY is at around 119.1

bushwaffle wrote:rising wedge support coming up....

I saw that. Might go back up above 1200 then perhaps down.

bullbear52 wrote:I start to put up spread sheet, how many people buy/sell at what price, no I didn't take name, just to see how good we as a group performed, please if possible post your entry number I am careless of exit.

Entered shorts at 1/10 of position at 1170, 2/5 at 1190, and 1/2 at 1198...stop 1210ish....watching today's close. Up 40% in last month, but only 20% ytd.

update entries,

Markets hit my resistance level that I was cautious about last night...and they obeyed it like no other...
thats why I was cautious last night and im suspecting it could reverse..but I think it all depends on ZB for the real direction.



WOW ZB breaks down from a head and shoulders, comes back up above the neckline and breaks channel resistance, and then breaks down below....so much f word volatility.

SB73 wrote:

bullbear52 wrote:I start to put up spread sheet, how many people buy/sell at what price, no I didn't take name, just to see how good we as a group performed, please if possible post your entry number I am careless of exit.

Entered shorts at 1/10 of position at 1170, 2/5 at 1190, and 1/2 at 1198...stop 1210ish....watching today's close. Up 40% in last month, but only 20% ytd.

I just start today so I will count you in as 119

FTSE 100. Does not look like we'll get a new high today. Looks like Europe is ready to lead us down.

SB73 wrote:

bullbear52 wrote:I start to put up spread sheet, how many people buy/sell at what price, no I didn't take name, just to see how good we as a group performed, please if possible post your entry number I am careless of exit.

Entered shorts at 1/10 of position at 1170, 2/5 at 1190, and 1/2 at 1198...stop 1210ish....watching today's close. Up 40% in last month, but only 20% ytd.

Since I have been legging into this cost basis is 119.2...thanks

if the ZB breaks down below the neckline again, be cautious bears cuz we could get another high.

SigmaEcho wrote:

uempel wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:guys, I think the market has topped

Yes Sir!

full moon reversal to 1010?

No, no. I'm only eyeing short term weakness down to 1182 or 1172...