Cobra's Market View

target /es 1248.

Al_Dente wrote:

agnosia wrote:good tell this is our bottom, europe is still way in the green ?
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
also italian bonds didn't blow out.

thanks for that valuable link

you're welcome al dente.

in the morning i have a start folder in chrome that brings up all the following to start my day :

http://finviz.com/calendar.ashx
http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=mam
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND

Cobra wrote:by the way, is "maintain the target" or "maintain the call" correct English?

Should I say "reiterate the target"?

All three are fine.

I went short that yesterday myself after thinking it was safe to do so (neg divergences on RSI/MACD)......then that big spike up made me think differently and I jumped out. You are making me think I was too quick to react. However I would like to see a 13/34 EMA cross-over on the hourly before I take the plunge again. Thanks.

KENA wrote:To L_T.I'm still short CAT it has not done much but will be good short if mkt goes dn.Sometimes it goes by its self.Right now it has consolidated and tending dn.

Mr. BachNut wrote:Went neutral in Yesterday's down draft. Perhaps too soon.
Despite the bullish price action in the afternoon, the intermediate term technicals I track showed some deterioration yesterday. Not enough to short but enough to start looking for topping behavior.

The attached chart seems like some good bear food.

... yes, there must be temperatures close to absolute zero in the interbank market, so the FED steps in as lender of last resort

the question is just how long the house of cards will hold

fuddleduddle wrote:

Cobra wrote:by the way, is "maintain the target" or "maintain the call" correct English?

Should I say "reiterate the target"?

All three are fine.

thanks.

One of my long term ( weekly ) chart that bears may like ( check where we are now )

Intraday Italian 10Y.... back to HOD 6.72%

L_T wrote:I went short that yesterday myself after thinking it was safe to do so (neg divergences on RSI/MACD)......then that big spike up made me think differently and I jumped out. You are making me think I was too quick to react. However I would like to see a 13/34 EMA cross-over on the hourly before I take the plunge again. Thanks.

KENA wrote:To L_T.I'm still short CAT it has not done much but will be good short if mkt goes dn.Sometimes it goes by its self.Right now it has consolidated and tending dn.

happened to me many times in the past. a gap up or down in the morning always scare me and I lost a truck load of money in the past.

It's unbelievable.
gap up but went into red. SPX, FAS, TNA...
All are red now except 3x Bear ETF.

target reached.

The conundrum to me is (and I saw Cobra mention this in his portfolio update) do you exit early to avoid further losses but open yourself to potential whipsaw like I did here, or do you stay on for the ride trying to take advantage of the high-probability setup you hopefully entered but then expose yourself to potential further losses?

tdo722 wrote:

L_T wrote:I went short that yesterday myself after thinking it was safe to do so (neg divergences on RSI/MACD)......then that big spike up made me think differently and I jumped out. You are making me think I was too quick to react. However I would like to see a 13/34 EMA cross-over on the hourly before I take the plunge again. Thanks.

KENA wrote:To L_T.I'm still short CAT it has not done much but will be good short if mkt goes dn.Sometimes it goes by its self.Right now it has consolidated and tending dn.

happened to me many times in the past. a gap up or down in the morning always scare me and I lost a truck load of money in the past.

support. but I won't hope much because AUDJPY and RSP lead down. Maybe this time a new Italian PM would save the day?

L_T wrote:The conundrum to me is (and I saw Cobra mention this in his portfolio update) do you exit early to avoid further losses but open yourself to potential whipsaw like I did here, or do you stay on for the ride trying to take advantage of the high-probability setup you hopefully entered but then expose yourself to potential further losses?

tdo722 wrote:

L_T wrote:I went short that yesterday myself after thinking it was safe to do so (neg divergences on RSI/MACD)......then that big spike up made me think differently and I jumped out. You are making me think I was too quick to react. However I would like to see a 13/34 EMA cross-over on the hourly before I take the plunge again. Thanks.

KENA wrote:To L_T.I'm still short CAT it has not done much but will be good short if mkt goes dn.Sometimes it goes by its self.Right now it has consolidated and tending dn.

happened to me many times in the past. a gap up or down in the morning always scare me and I lost a truck load of money in the past.

Well, I don't know about you but my motto has always been, never stick with a losing trade. You can always make money the next time.

Update SPX:

So honey...what's for lunch?
RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/rut_08.html

Besides Chianti of course.

Another view to find support

A strong SPY support has been reached. Reversal here is possible.

Seems 125.8 the fib50 of yesterday low and today-high (till now) can hold as support? Bears may go to take profit?

i think we have a clear overlap here. this looks more and more like a revisit of the previous high.