Cobra's Market View

champix wrote:

agnosia wrote:sold half of my /cl position from pivot for +1. lets see if we get a gap fill @ 98.99

well done agnosia, once again... I was too greedy (wanted to buy below 97)and I missed the push up ...
I should definitely follow your pivots...

thanks champix crude trades really well with pivots for the most part. if u want pm me and i can send u my spreadsheet and u can just plug in open/close/high prices to get them for yourself.

i am in the middle of making a dynamic pivot thinkscript as well to calculate them automatically during the day. just getting my head around the language for now.

tdo722 wrote:would it be consider a good short setup if I short spy now at around $126.20 and set stop loss at HOD?

assuming the 1st leg down this morning and now consolidation, so therefore we should have another leg down?

$124.85 target = 2 equal legs?

tdo722 wrote:would it be consider a good short setup if I short spy now at around $126.20 and set stop loss at HOD?

assuming the 1st leg down this morning and now consolidation, so therefore we should have another leg down?

IMO yes...I did that on the first EMA 20 touch

Updates

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/copper_14.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/crude_14.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/30y_14.html

Updates

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/gold_14.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/silver_14.html

SB73 wrote:

tdo722 wrote:would it be consider a good short setup if I short spy now at around $126.20 and set stop loss at HOD?

assuming the 1st leg down this morning and now consolidation, so therefore we should have another leg down?

IMO yes...I did that on the first EMA 20 touch

What was your price if you don't mind me asking.

Looks like we are headed to 1244 on ES.

PAGING SOKU:

here's the first quick reply from my buddy on the street...he's a healthcare analyst, so i respect what he says.

There are various threads/strings of cases working their way through the federal courts. everyone believes that this is going ALLLLLL THE WAYYYYY to the supreme court. Question is really more about timing. The obvious underlying issue is about the constitutionality of the health insurance mandate. This is part of a multi-pronged effort by the republicans to kill hc reform, either with 1. Courts 2. Defund (coming sooner than you think, ala 11/23 1.2 trillion automatic triggers).
Ultimately, I don’t see the supreme court making the call until well after the election, so until then, HC will be in limbo land.
HC reform itself is really slated to take into effect 2014. Ultimately, everyone is scrambling to “get up to code” on the IT requirements (electronic medical records). Hospitals that are not “up to code” will lose out on reimbursement, which is supportive of HC IT outfits (think McKesson), although that boom has been going on for 5 years now. Providers that are not able to fund capex are jumping into bed with larger players (think: DMC, Loyola health & trinity, and countless others), creating a pretty sizable M&A boom.

From an “outlook perspective”, hospitals have been in “conserve mode” on capital since everyone is waiting to see what the fallout is with hc reform. Ironically, as a result, cash levels are brimming because they aren’t spending their free cash flow. Even thought everyone is waiting for “2014)’, and post 2012 election supreme court news, ultimately, the boom is coming down sooner. I think 11/23 will be VERY interesting for HC – the 1.2 bn automatic triggers (assuming they can’t get anything down) will come down very heavy handed on HC (read: medicare/Medicaid). Even if they DO negotiate something, it will involve some shape of entitlement reform. So either way, I think healthcare is under more pressure than folks think.


SO: the thesis is:
1. Trade on HC vol increasing in the short term

2. ID lower rated (read: BBB) hospitals (small) that have solid market positiosn that will probably get bought out (for munis)

3. So bullish intermediate with some hiccups in a few weeks, and bearish longer term, although much of this is presumably baked in.

All in all, I’ve been surprised how little coverage in the markets 11/23 seems to be engendering. It’s a wild card that could go all over the place (1.2 automatic trigger would be neutral to slightly bullish), a negotiated agreement would be wildly bullish, and a failure to launch could be catastrophic if it triggers another sovereign downgrade.

NOW: In Germany they start working on a European Legislation which would allow member states to exist the Euro System…
Surprised? How do you think the market will react to that?
Well…as you see!

1st target met, now the 2nd target, a failed double bottom now becomes double top.

Trin sell beeping. Trin is at 1.6
Obviously, EVERYTHING confirmed bear

volume surge see a rebound here could be, but overall I think the target is very possible.

tdo722 wrote:

SB73 wrote:

tdo722 wrote:would it be consider a good short setup if I short spy now at around $126.20 and set stop loss at HOD?

assuming the 1st leg down this morning and now consolidation, so therefore we should have another leg down?

IMO yes...I did that on the first EMA 20 touch

What was your price if you don't mind me asking.

126.24

Honey? What's for lunch?
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx_7938.html

Got something red and juicy?

SB73 wrote:

tdo722 wrote:

SB73 wrote:

tdo722 wrote:would it be consider a good short setup if I short spy now at around $126.20 and set stop loss at HOD?

assuming the 1st leg down this morning and now consolidation, so therefore we should have another leg down?

IMO yes...I did that on the first EMA 20 touch

What was your price if you don't mind me asking.

126.24

Thanks SB73.

Bulls need pray that this yellow line can save the day.

looks like it's bouncing off that uptrend line from last week. I'm gonna open a small long position with stop at LOD.

A little off topic. Sorry.

Whenever I am away for awhile, I get logged out. I have checked the little box when I log in, but it doesn't help.

Is anyone aware of a way to stay logged in for the day?

Mr. BachNut wrote:A little off topic. Sorry.

Whenever I am away for awhile, I get logged out. I have checked the little box when I log in, but it doesn't help.

Is anyone aware of a way to stay logged in for the day?

I don't have such a problem. maybe it's your settings?

Cobra wrote:volume surge see a rebound here could be, but overall I think the target is very possible.

Interesting your comments, the wizard is also looking for 1300 by weeks end.
From being a bear on friday his turning around ?