Cobra's Market View

an interesting video. doug kass calling for a 5-6% correction. my calculation it is 1300.
they also discussed the missing volume. pete says it's option market holding more vol. instead of selling people buying puts to hedge.
evidence, yesterday 1m spy puts were bot.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000074689

Inverse H+S everywhere. GLTA jimme

Cobra,
Looks like 3 push down, could we have a 2 push up?? Is that a bearish set up??
Thanks

soku wrote:an interesting video. doug kass calling for a 5-6% correction. my calculation it is 1300.
they also discussed the missing volume. pete says it's option market holding more vol. instead of selling people buying puts to hedge.
evidence, yesterday 1m spy puts were bot.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000074689

Extremely scary to be bear. Everyone including their mothers, fathers, sons and daughters are getting ready or already short the market. Hopefully, we will not be disappointed.

I am betting Wave 3 up to 1384 by the way.

market not moving. time to do more reading.

zh reports, "Following Abysmal 2011, Only 10% Of Hedge Funds Are Outperforming The S&P In 2012"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/not-again ... to+zero%29

as we discussed, the first month of 2012 is another dumb bull market. it is not easy to beat market if you r doing active management. what's the famous word? btfd.
lots of money managers missed 1330 to now. i guess they r going to buy if there is any correction. i think kass' number make sense.

I am cooked today with VIX near term after a fantastic month

C it is.....

soku wrote:an interesting video. doug kass calling for a 5-6% correction. my calculation it is 1300.
they also discussed the missing volume. pete says it's option market holding more vol. instead of selling people buying puts to hedge.
evidence, yesterday 1m spy puts were bot.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000074689

I don't think I would be all that wrong to think that with fewer players now, that software they said in a court case (the part stolen from an employee leaving GS who parked it on a server in Germany who is now in jail) could be used to manipulate the market, in the wrong hands, is now burning premium every Thursday and Friday by holding the mkt where it is after positioning during the week. To anyone who has been a professional trader, this is a bad market. That the "banks" never lose makes it an extremely crooked market. Elections have consequences and debts are owed. I can only hope things change in 2012 as that trader tax is likely going to be pushed through to end all of this both here and in the EU....or what remains of it!

Come on STO bearish crossed across the board.

revisit of the previous high, key time.

btran874 wrote:

soku wrote:an interesting video. doug kass calling for a 5-6% correction. my calculation it is 1300.
they also discussed the missing volume. pete says it's option market holding more vol. instead of selling people buying puts to hedge.
evidence, yesterday 1m spy puts were bot.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000074689

Extremely scary to be bear. Everyone including their mothers, fathers, sons and daughters are getting ready or already short the market. Hopefully, we will not be disappointed.

I am betting Wave 3 up to 1384 by the way.

well, doug kass is probably the last trader to be a bear. in late dec he called for spx all time high in 2nd half of 2012. after the past 2 months, i guess people are getting more serious about this call.

the consolidation patter is more clear on the 15 min chart, so not bad for bulls.

15, 30 and 60 not bad for bulls

???

soku wrote:market not moving. time to do more reading.

zh reports, "Following Abysmal 2011, Only 10% Of Hedge Funds Are Outperforming The S&P In 2012"

In a quest for survival they tend not to do dumb things. And buying a mkt that was up less than 1/10th of 1% on the year was considered dumb in light of all numbers being cooked to get to that level. Some younger guys I know are looking at older guys leave trading firms and wondering if they should too.

The stated object of this administration was to remove speculators from the market. I'd say they have done exactly that. If Chrysler bond holders were "Greedy Investors" just think of what anyone day trading (other than government supported banks) are considered. If anyone read Kafka's, "The Trial", I guess a law could be passed that we all retroactively violated by trading. Sure it sounds weird, but so does 10,000 quotes per second and no one stopping the manipulation by HFTs.

VIX: with 3 -wave down leg IF SPX is approaching a top then VIX HAS to unfold an Ending Diagonal ......... Whisful thinking ?

(thewavetrading.com)

at the current juncture see my RSI, so far bull on, but since I bet on the down side, I will not be comfortable until this RSI is trading down under 50. we shall see.

BullBear52x wrote:C it is.....

That's only "C" if we start tanking in wave 3.

I thought after running Prechter out of his position it was the top. But I'm pretty sure he issued an alert to go to "maximum leverage" short again. But his stop is probably at 2001 SPX... the price, not the year!

3:05PM. It's that time again. Come on Wave 3, let's dance.

SWalsh wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:C it is.....

That's only "C" if we start tanking in wave 3.

I thought after running Prechter out of his position it was the top. But I'm pretty sure he issued an alert to go to "maximum leverage" short again. But his stop is probably at 2001 SPX... the price, not the year!

no mater what tight stop and be nimble as I can be.